Pokémon Galarian Darmanitan

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What you said is true, but that's still only a 20% chance to miss, which isn't too bad if you compare it to Fire Blast or Focus Blast.
Fire Blast has a 30% chance of hitting two turns in a row, while Focus Blast is 60%. In my opinion, it's almost always better to use power over accurate rate, as Pokémon is filled with RNG and luck.
True there, after all there's a reason why people will recommend Hydro Pump over Surf or Fire Blast over Flamethrower, for example. I'm just curious what all out there might avoid a 2HKO or OHKO from Ice Punch, but not Icicle Crash, as the 10 BP is a pretty small difference. I'll probably go through the most commonly seen Pokemon so far on the damage calculator and see if any go down to IC but not IP after work today when I have more time.
 
I think Ice Punch will end up being the more reliable STAB move overall for G-Darm. Darm's other attacks cover pretty well for anything resistant to Ice, and Ice Punch packs a hard hit to anything that doesn't resist it.

While I haven't yet gone extensively through the list, Ice Punch seems so far to be able to pick up the 2HKO on nearly all Pokemon in the tier that take neutral damage to Ice. The only possible exception I've found so far to this is Gyarados: Icicle Crash is a guaranteed 2HKO against the standard DD Gyarados set that most people are running with 4 EVs in Defense, dealing 53.7 - 63.4% (assuming Icicle Crash hits both times).

Meanwhile, Ice Punch deals 47.4 - 56.1% to the same Gyarados, giving it an 82.4% chance to 2HKO (A Gyarados with 0 EVs in Defense has an 87.5% chance to 2HKO). While that may make it seem like Icicle Crash would be the better option, Icicle Crash used twice has an 81% chance of hitting two times in a row (9/10 * 9/10 = 81/100), meaning that both moves have about the same chance to 2HKO Gyarados.

So in this situation Ice Punch would be the better option just for consistency across the board in accuracy while maintaining the ability to 2HKO most mons neutral to Ice. I'm really curious to see what mons, if any, might be able to consistently avoid getting 2HKO'd by Ice Punch but not Icicle Crash. Perhaps a Gyarados with some more EVs in defense, though that would probably not be worth it. Lemme know if anyone finds any other mons that can possibly survive a 2HKO from neutral Ice Punch.

Edit: Forgot to mention but I ran these calculations using Jolly Scarf G-Darm, who also outspeeds Gyarados even after a DD.
One important detail you're overlooking is ease-of-use. If you run ice punch, yeah sure it's strong on stuff that doesn't resist it but the difference in power means that if you end up ice punching a resist or a bulky neutral target, you just dropped a 2HKO/3HKO that crash probably would have gotten you. By running Ice Punch you make Darmanitan much harder to use. You have to predict so much harder because you don't have a one-size fits all nuke like Icicle Crash. You need to rely on coverage moves and if your coverage move hits a resist because you didn't predict correctly you have basically wasted Darm. I'm not sure if you miss out on any key OHKO's by switching to Ice Punch (I feel like probably you do but I can't do calcs right now) but if you do then you are essentially signing up to shorten your Darm's life span by requiring it to tank hits to pick up 2HKOs.
Maybe if for some reason you're trying to use Darmanitan to revenge kill softened threats or finish off a weakened team you might prefer Ice Punch but I feel pretty confident that a majority of the time you're gonna wish you had crash over punch.
 
Please forgive me if these calcs are misleading, but here are some I made:

252 Atk Darmanitan-Galar Ice Punch vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Gyarados: 157-186 (47.4 - 56.1%) -- 82.4% chance to 2HKO

252 Atk Darmanitan-Galar Icicle Crash vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Gyarados: 178-210 (53.7 - 63.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

252 Atk Darmanitan-Galar Ice Punch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Haxorus: 284-336 (96.9 - 114.6%) -- 81.3% chance to OHKO

252 Atk Darmanitan-Galar Icicle Crash vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Haxorus: 320-380 (109.2 - 129.6%) -- guaranteed OHKO

252 Atk Darmanitan-Galar Ice Punch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Stonjourner: 102-120 (29.9 - 35.1%) -- 16.1% chance to 3HKO

252 Atk Darmanitan-Galar Icicle Crash vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Stonjourner: 114-135 (33.4 - 39.5%) -- guaranteed 3HKO

Even with Defense/HP EVs, Crash deals slightly more than Punch and has a good 30% flinch chance.
 
What you said is true, but that's still only a 20% chance to miss, which isn't too bad if you compare it to Fire Blast or Focus Blast.
Fire Blast has a 30% chance of hitting two turns in a row, while Focus Blast is 60%. In my opinion, it's almost always better to use power over accurate rate, as Pokémon is filled with RNG and luck.
I think your math may be off because Fire Blast is more accurate than Focus Blast. Unless those are the chances they miss one of the two turns?
 
I think your math may be off because Fire Blast is more accurate than Focus Blast. Unless those are the chances they miss one of the two turns?
My bad, I meant a 30% chance of missing and Focus Blast is a 60% chance of missing. That means using Focus Blast 3 times in a row would have a 10% chance of hitting. Crazy.
 
My bad, I meant a 30% chance of missing and Focus Blast is a 60% chance of missing. That means using Focus Blast 3 times in a row would have a 10% chance of hitting. Crazy.
Back to your original point, I do like the odds on Crash based on this, especially to avoid contact which can exacerbate Darm's SR weakness against Thorn.
 
Back to your original point, I do like the odds on Crash based on this, especially to avoid contact which can exacerbate Darm's SR weakness against Thorn.
Yeah. The only bad thing I could say is physical ferrothorn could easily tank a Crash, so it would be better to OHKO it with Flare Blitz (and even that would take serious damage to Darm with recoil damage and Iron Barbs)
 
Please forgive me if these calcs are misleading, but here are some I made:

252 Atk Darmanitan-Galar Ice Punch vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Gyarados: 157-186 (47.4 - 56.1%) -- 82.4% chance to 2HKO

252 Atk Darmanitan-Galar Icicle Crash vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Gyarados: 178-210 (53.7 - 63.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

252 Atk Darmanitan-Galar Ice Punch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Haxorus: 284-336 (96.9 - 114.6%) -- 81.3% chance to OHKO

252 Atk Darmanitan-Galar Icicle Crash vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Haxorus: 320-380 (109.2 - 129.6%) -- guaranteed OHKO

252 Atk Darmanitan-Galar Ice Punch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Stonjourner: 102-120 (29.9 - 35.1%) -- 16.1% chance to 3HKO

252 Atk Darmanitan-Galar Icicle Crash vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Stonjourner: 114-135 (33.4 - 39.5%) -- guaranteed 3HKO

Even with Defense/HP EVs, Crash deals slightly more than Punch and has a good 30% flinch chance.
Those calcs are accurate to what I've run, so I'd say they are fine. The one small caveat I'd make is to account for accuracy in them, since that will be a factor in whether or not Icicle Crash connects.

So for Gyarados, Icicle Crash would have an 81% chance to 2HKO, with it missing at least once 19% of the time. Compared to Ice Punch, these two are so close that it honestly doesn't matter which one you run.

For Haxorus, Icicle Crash would get that OHKO 90% of the time due to accuracy, but that's STILL better than the OHKO chance for Ice Punch. You'd want Icicle Crash here.

Stonjourner would have a 72.9% chance to get hit 3 times in a row by Icicle Crash - much better odds to pick up the KO in 3 turns than Ice Punch.

So far for me, the only times I've found that you'd want Ice Punch over Icicle Crash would be for if Ice Punch can guarantee you the OHKO (or 2HKO if Icicle Crash also gets the 2HKO). The only times I've found so far where that can happen are specially defensive Mandibuzz and Hawlucha:

252 Atk Darmanitan-Galar Ice Punch vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Mandibuzz: 248-294 (58.4 - 69.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

252 Atk Darmanitan-Galar Icicle Crash vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Mandibuzz: 282-332 (66.5 - 78.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO (81% to hit twice)

and

252 Atk Darmanitan-Galar Ice Punch vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Hawlucha: 326-386 (109.7 - 129.9%) -- guaranteed OHKO

252 Atk Darmanitan-Galar Icicle Crash vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Hawlucha: 372-438 (125.2 - 147.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO (90% to hit once)

Looking at it now, I'd say that you're right, Icicle Crash would be the overall better option to run due to it's power, I underestimated how much of a difference 10 BP would make. Even if Ice Punch is guaranteed to snag KO's that Icicle Crash could POSSIBLY miss, Icicle Crash is still better to go with.

Edited a misspelling because I noticed it immediately after posting and it annoyed me.
 
Those calcs are accurate to what I've run, so I'd say they are fine. The one small caveat I'd make is to account for accuracy in them, since that will be a factor in whether or not Icicle Crash connects.

So for Gyarados, Icicle Crash would have an 81% chance to 2HKO, with it missing at least once 19% of the time. Compared to Ice Punch, these two are so close that it honestly doesn't matter which one you run.

For Haxorus, Icicle Crash would get that OHKO 90% of the time due to accuracy, but that's STILL better than the OHKO chance for Ice Punch. You'd want Icicle Crash here.

Stonjourner would have a 72.9% chance to get hit 3 times in a row by Icicle Crash - much better odds to pick up the KO in 3 turns than Ice Punch.

So far for me, the only times I've found that you'd want Ice Punch over Icicle Crash would be for if Ice Punch can guarantee you the OHKO (or 2HKO if Icicle Crash also gets the 2HKO). The only times I've found so far where that can happen are specially defensive Mandibuzz and Hawlucha:

252 Atk Darmanitan-Galar Ice Punch vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Mandibuzz: 248-294 (58.4 - 69.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

252 Atk Darmanitan-Galar Icicle Crash vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Mandibuzz: 282-332 (66.5 - 78.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO (81% to hit twice)

and

252 Atk Darmanitan-Galar Ice Punch vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Hawlucha: 326-386 (109.7 - 129.9%) -- guaranteed OHKO

252 Atk Darmanitan-Galar Icicle Crash vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Hawlucha: 372-438 (125.2 - 147.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO (90% to hit once)

Looking at it now, I'd say that you're right, Icicle Crash would be the overall better option to run due to it's power, I underestimated how much of a difference 10 BP would make. Even if Ice Punch is guaranteed to snag KO's that Icicle Crash could POSSIBLY miss, Icicle Crash is still better to go with.

Edited a misspelling because I noticed it immediately after posting and it annoyed me.
After seeing some of your calcs (like the Mandibuzz one) I realized that Ice Punch and Icicle Crash can almost have the same amount of power, with Icicle Crash just having 10% less accuracy and a chance to flinch.
 
After seeing some of your calcs (like the Mandibuzz one) I realized that Ice Punch and Icicle Crash can almost have the same amount of power, with Icicle Crash just having 10% less accuracy and a chance to flinch.
True, though that chance to flinch is pretty nice, and more likely to help in comparison to the 10% chance Ice Punch has to freeze. That guaranteed hit from Ice Punch is nice too, but obviously not if it loses an OHKO or 2HKO thanks to the lower power. They're honestly pretty close but I definitely agree with the majority now that Icicle Crash is superior.
 
Those calcs are accurate to what I've run, so I'd say they are fine. The one small caveat I'd make is to account for accuracy in them, since that will be a factor in whether or not Icicle Crash connects.

So for Gyarados, Icicle Crash would have an 81% chance to 2HKO, with it missing at least once 19% of the time. Compared to Ice Punch, these two are so close that it honestly doesn't matter which one you run.

For Haxorus, Icicle Crash would get that OHKO 90% of the time due to accuracy, but that's STILL better than the OHKO chance for Ice Punch. You'd want Icicle Crash here.

Stonjourner would have a 72.9% chance to get hit 3 times in a row by Icicle Crash - much better odds to pick up the KO in 3 turns than Ice Punch.

So far for me, the only times I've found that you'd want Ice Punch over Icicle Crash would be for if Ice Punch can guarantee you the OHKO (or 2HKO if Icicle Crash also gets the 2HKO). The only times I've found so far where that can happen are specially defensive Mandibuzz and Hawlucha:

252 Atk Darmanitan-Galar Ice Punch vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Mandibuzz: 248-294 (58.4 - 69.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

252 Atk Darmanitan-Galar Icicle Crash vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Mandibuzz: 282-332 (66.5 - 78.3%) -- guaranteed 2HKO (81% to hit twice)

and

252 Atk Darmanitan-Galar Ice Punch vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Hawlucha: 326-386 (109.7 - 129.9%) -- guaranteed OHKO

252 Atk Darmanitan-Galar Icicle Crash vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Hawlucha: 372-438 (125.2 - 147.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO (90% to hit once)

Looking at it now, I'd say that you're right, Icicle Crash would be the overall better option to run due to it's power, I underestimated how much of a difference 10 BP would make. Even if Ice Punch is guaranteed to snag KO's that Icicle Crash could POSSIBLY miss, Icicle Crash is still better to go with.

Edited a misspelling because I noticed it immediately after posting and it annoyed me.
Just looked at psychically defensive Mandibuzz too to see if that changes anything. Using a set with a Bold nature, 248 HP EV and 128 Def EV that I've seen posted earlier on the forum (I think it was in the OU Bazaar but I can't remember) we get the calculations of:

252 Atk Darmanitan-Galar Icicle Crash vs. 248 HP / 128+ Def Mandibuzz: 228-270 (53.9 - 63.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO (81% to hit twice)

252 Atk Darmanitan-Galar Ice Punch vs. 248 HP / 128+ Def Mandibuzz: 204-240 (48.2 - 56.7%) -- 84.4% chance to 2HKO

This time since Ice Punch can't guarantee the 2HKO, the two moves are much closer in likelihood to hit, but technically Ice Punch is more likely to succeed. That being said Icicle Crash is better to go with overall IMO due to the 30% flinch chance as opposed to Ice Punch's 10% freeze chance. They're still pretty close for the most part but yeah, that power + flinch is helpful.

Edit: More bad grammar
 
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What counters this pokemon?
The most consistent check I've found is Corsola-G, especially if it's physically defensive. Even if Corsola-G is focused entirely on special defense, you get the result of:

252 Atk Darmanitan-Galar Icicle Crash vs. 248 HP / 0 Def Eviolite Corsola-Galar: 99-117 (30.6 - 36.2%) -- 46.9% chance to 3HKO

Meanwhile Corsola-G can just Strength Sap Darm-G's attack and burn it with Will-o-Wisp, and will 4HKO Darm with Night Shade.

Now, that being said, I agree that there are no true counters to Darm-G. Darmanitan can easily be used as a lead, and is pretty damn fast when running scarf. Darmanitan can just U-Turn out of there, and while U-Turn wouldn't do a whole lot of damage to walls, that damage plus switching into something that CAN force Corsola out or threaten to KO it is a very useful asset for Darm's team. And even if the player using Corsola predicts the switch and switches their own mon, that still means that whatever they switch in is getting a U-Turn to the face. And this is just one scenario, dealing with Darm-G without losing a mon, taking serious damage or losing momentum and getting put in a disadvantageous situation is pretty much impossible without some impeccable predictions.
 
Happy Thanksgiving Guys!
So I tested Zen Mode Darmanitan and it's actually pretty good. Might even be worthy of a set.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen8ou-1018661796 This battle is pretty funny since I wouldn't have swept if I didn't have Salac Berry. Sub is for blocking out status moves and can help set up a free Belly Drum.
+6 252 Atk Darmanitan-Galar Icicle Crash vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Eviolite Corsola-Galar: 312-367 (96.2 - 113.2%) -- 75% chance to OHKO
It's THAT strong. Specially invested Corsolas of course get OHKOed and Substitute (if you have enough health) can still block out Corsolas status moves.
 
What counters this pokemon?
Well, there are a few things. First, Stealth Rock prevents Darmanitan from switching in and out like crazy. It also wears it down. So keeping up rocks can be a good countrplay, especially if you can play around the choice lock.

Max health Machamp can usually live an attack and 1 shot return it with Dynamic Punch or a similar fighting move. If you are adding Dynamax to the equation, Dynamax Machamp will also 1 shot Dynamax Darm. I have also been experimenting using a semi-Trick Room team with Machamp and Copperajah, which results in a very clean 1HKO for either if you can get the Trick Room up first.

Scarfed Imposter Ditto can generally also beat it because it can get the Flare Blitz off first. Although, most of the Darm sets I see are Choice Scarfed. Ditto or Galarian Darmanitan can 1HKO each other with the support of Sticky Webs.

I assume a high powered Bullet Punch abuser like Lucario (with Stealth Rock support) or maybe Guts Conkeldurr with Mach Punch could one shot it. Same with a Choice Scarfed or Dynamax speed boost with Cinderace, Rapidash, or Charizard. I haven't actually tried any of those things yet myself. They are just estimations based off Darmanitan's frailty and maybe speed tier.

Defensively, most water types would resist both Ice STAB and Flare Blitz. So finding a good defensive water type could work. The main problem with Toxapex is it gets wrecked by Earthquake coverage on the wrong predict. I think Intimidate Gyarados could actually be made to counter it if it wasn't already such a good Dynamax abuser. Although, Darm can carry Stone Edge if that becomes too common. Fighting and ground are the most common coverage moves carried in addition to the main fire and ice type moves. However, it should be noted that both Stone Edge/Rock Slide and Zen Headbutt are possible on it if certain threats and/or counterplays become more common.
 
The most consistent check I've found is Corsola-G, especially if it's physically defensive. Even if Corsola-G is focused entirely on special defense, you get the result of:

252 Atk Darmanitan-Galar Icicle Crash vs. 248 HP / 0 Def Eviolite Corsola-Galar: 99-117 (30.6 - 36.2%) -- 46.9% chance to 3HKO

Meanwhile Corsola-G can just Strength Sap Darm-G's attack and burn it with Will-o-Wisp, and will 4HKO Darm with Night Shade.
Just FYI, the calculator doesn't properly account for Gorilla Tactics just yet. The actual calc is:

252 Atk Hustle Darmanitan-Galar Icicle Crash vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Eviolite Corsola-Galar: 147-174 (45.3 - 53.7%) -- 38.7% chance to 2HKO

252 Atk Hustle Darmanitan-Galar Icicle Crash vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Eviolite Corsola-Galar: 106-126 (32.7 - 38.8%) -- 99.3% chance to 3HKO

(Hustle acts as a working standin for Gorilla Tactics)

Anyway, my take for best GDarm counters would be Rotom-H or PhysDef Jellicent.
 
2 things
1) Fire Blast does not have a 30% chance of hitting twice, and Focus Blast does not have a 60% chance. Fire blast has a 72.25% chance of hitting twice, and FB has a 49% chance. This is based on the math of multiplying the fractions (8.5/10 and 7/10 respectively) by each other.
2) I feel like on most sets it won’t matter which ice stab you run. Sub salac zen already has an outrageous 1600 attack on jolly so it doesn’t matter, and gorilla tactics also boosts your attack to a crazy amount regardless of band or scarf. I think the main perk of icicle crash is not the increased damage, but the outrageous flinch chance. I suppose optimization will come later down the line, but for now it’s personal preference (I prefer ice punch since I use sub salac zen and accuracy is way more important than power since your 1 shotting everything anyways).
 
2 things
1) Fire Blast does not have a 30% chance of hitting twice, and Focus Blast does not have a 60% chance. Fire blast has a 72.25% chance of hitting twice, and FB has a 49% chance. This is based on the math of multiplying the fractions (8.5/10 and 7/10 respectively) by each other.
2) I feel like on most sets it won’t matter which ice stab you run. Sub salac zen already has an outrageous 1600 attack on jolly so it doesn’t matter, and gorilla tactics also boosts your attack to a crazy amount regardless of band or scarf. I think the main perk of icicle crash is not the increased damage, but the outrageous flinch chance. I suppose optimization will come later down the line, but for now it’s personal preference (I prefer ice punch since I use sub salac zen and accuracy is way more important than power since your 1 shotting everything anyways).
Sub Salac Zen is good, but is a bit situational and is outclassed by more threats before sweeping which is why it isn't a set (as of now), while band and scarf are powerful wallbreakers without the need to set up.
 
Can you run Zeb darn with belly drum?
I mean, kinda. Sub+Salac+Belly Drum Zen Mode Darm is obscenely strong once it gets going and it packs a very nasty Speed tier that outpaces everything up to (but tragically not including) +1 Jolly/Scarf Timid Dragapult, but it requires a lot of support and setup to pull off, compounded further by the fact that Ice is a shitty defensive typing.

The biggest issue with Belly Drum Zen Mode G-Darm is the fact that it's inconsistent. The opportunity cost of running Zen Mode G-Darm is extremely high because you aren't running Gorilla Tactics G-Darm, which is easily one of the most consistent Scarfers we've ever seen.
 
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