Serious US Election Thread (read post #2014)

Status
Not open for further replies.

GatoDelFuego

The Antimonymph of the Internet
is a Site Content Manager Alumnusis a Social Media Contributor Alumnusis a Community Leader Alumnusis a Smogon Discord Contributor Alumnusis a Top Contributor Alumnusis a Top Smogon Media Contributor Alumnus
I have avoided supporting Clinton for the past months, thinking that Johnson was the best choice, but after tonight it makes me reconsider. This debate was such an absolute slaughterhouse. Trump was systematically dismantled live on air; it was as bad as marco Rubio self-destructing but was somehow worse with the audience stay eerily quiet.


1. Trump failed when approaching the debate like another rally. His parroted points about his great image and companies backfired when Clinton mentioned the workers disparaged by his so called 'bullying' and his bankruptcy. Instead of saying that his 6 bankruptcies are a small portion of his business, he said that people that weren't paid were weak and didn't do a good job and he was a winner for not paying them. It's not a moral victory he can win, and it cost him.

2. in a similar vein, when questioned about his views on women, he just name-dropped rosie o'donnel on a completely unrelated note. "I could be much more negative to Clinton, she has been very mean. I don't deserve that! Believe me, I could do much worse". Trump has come this far with his successful negative attacks; nobody is going to believe that he's 'holding back' now because of his great, kind heart. It doesn't help him reverse his rhetoric from many months (so it doesn't win new voters) and it hurts his base of people that like him for his unfiltered comments.

3. Immigration was almost completely absent from the entire debate. This is likely a good thing for both candidates. I don't think Trump can actually defend the wall live in a debate setting without actually committing political suicide with every moderate in america, but Clinton suffers being shackled to the current immigration policy that frustrates basically everybody in the US.

4. Economic investment. Trump could have come in with ammo but did not. His entire platform is based on the fact that if you lower taxes, companies will come back. But he doesn't want to seem to talk about that. He led everybody in a circle last night, saying we've got to make companies not want to leave, we'll lower taxes, we'll raise tarrifs, we'll do it, they'll come back "believe me!", but they won't come back because they won't leave, let me tell you. But believe me, when they do leave they'll beg to come back!

Meanwhile, Clinton came in coolly with soundbytes about economic investment. It's aimed at people like myself that (admittedly i'm no economic master) get that free trade is a good thing for people. The USA leads in several markets: aerospace, defense, software, computer hardware, and energy (though in terms of energy we are not #1). Clinton says we need "good jobs", which is true, but I feel like that's lost on a majority of voters. Shifting unskilled manufacturing out and investing in futurism industries is a good move for America. America does not need air conditioner manufacturing to stay the worlds largest GDP.

Trump's counterpoints were weak on this subject. "Look at mexico, look at china. They're doing things we're not even doing". But what are those things? In general, economic life has improved for americans in the past years. Not all, though, and that's who trump is trying to latch onto, but it won't be enough to catch a majority. The air conditioner line felt fed after the third time it came out. And when asked how we're going to get them back, the only answer is "trust me, they won't leave. Believe me!". But in truth, government investment and subsidies will draw business of a kind that we want, and it is what we have been doing.

Trump further dirtied his hands when he took shots at our infrastructure (our airports are like a third world country!). Of which I agree (walking through O'Hare makes me want to die after seeing hong kong and narita); the issue is he blames the government for mishandling money when Clinton says that we will continue to invest in infrastructure with tax dollars. Saying that not paying taxes "makes you smart" is NOT a good idea, nor is it a position you can hold when you say our infrastructure is cumblilng.


5. Both candidates got their hands very filthy when talking about race relations. I happen to be a privileged rich, white, straight, tall, male, so my opinions are inherently racist™ on the subject. Trump had the opportunity to double down and say that minority communities need to stop violence among themselves rather than at police. He did not, and instead meandered through a discussion about stop-and-frisk and how great it would be for Chicago (which shows a massive lack of knowledge at what the problem is). He had a fantastic opportunity to say "gang violence is bad in Chicago, so we are going to go block by block and shut gangs down". He did not and instead say that we'll stop and frisk (where, the loop? Where violence is nonexistent?). He then stumbled on gun control, saying "we've got to get the guns out of the people that have them, they're bad people (Believe Me™)".

Gun control honestly doesn't work, but that's a separate issue.

Clinton meanwhile had the opportunity to say that implicit bias is a problem for everyone, including when it is said by minorities about whites. She did not. Instead it is perceived by White Trump Supporters as a further "attack on their race" similar to the "war on Christmas". Saying that everybody has a potential for bias would have saved her at least 5% in voter population. And bias is a huge issue on many cases whether by whites, blacks, Hispanics, poor people, men, women, cops, politicians, union workers, anybody. It should be our goal as humans to look at things objectively without bias as much as we can. But Clinton then went on to say that we need "radical criminal justice reform" without specifics, which hurts. America has a violent crime and violent policing problem. Police must take the edge off their work but this can't happen until we stamp out gang work. Meanwhile body cameras and facts will keep violent officers in line (the woman in Tulsa? Open and shut. See you in jail). It's possible to say both of these opinions at once, but neither candidate can without imploding their own fanbase. Meanwhile Clinton rambles more about "military style weapons" and how bad they are (failing to think about the man in Washington that shot 5 with a Not Military Style Rifle and was prohibited from having that gun in the first place). Nobody wins.




This was way too long of a post for the smogon US election thread, lmfao, please give me likes to validate my opinion guys :( :( :(
 
Last edited:
The way Trump performed in the last hour was atrocious. If Hillary wasn't reading off her teleprompter, I would have suggested answering a question in about 20 seconds and then allocating the rest of the time to Trump so he had more rope to hang himself with
 
Trump got crushed and made a mockery of himself. He looked like he was nervous and made uo atrocious lies. Hilary should climb the polls pretty swiftly now. Still think both candidates are complete trash, but I guess Hillary was the better one last night.

"And remember kids, global climate change is a hoax perpetrated by the Chinese."
-Donald Trump
 
  • Like
Reactions: JES

Adamant Zoroark

catchy catchphrase
is a Contributor Alumnus
I caught the debate after it was over (I was in class during the debate). Clinton definitely appeared more presidential than Trump (because of course Trump couldn't appear presidential even if he tried); Clinton at least had some kind of plan in place, while Trump was just sitting there jerking himself off with all his money.

Also, it's important to note that fact-checkers have repeatedly rated Trump's claims as being false (predictably). We can't go giving the presidency to someone who distorts the truth or just straight-up lies like he does.

Still not going to make me vote for Hillary Clinton (you can call her lots of things but "trustworthy" isn't one of them). Still voting for Gary Johnson (will be inconsequential as California is going to Clinton regardless, but still)
 

Adamant Zoroark

catchy catchphrase
is a Contributor Alumnus
Trump looked pretty bad in the debate, but it doesn't seem to be hurting him much in the polls, if at all.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Probably some sort of delayed effect, though. We'll see what the polls look like in a week.
In several states, we did see slight increases in Hillary Clinton's odds of winning (including crucial swing states like Ohio and Florida, but also states she was considerably leading in but Trump still had a realistic possibility of winning like Colorado and New Hampshire) the day after the debate, but it's definitely too early to tell if this is the start of a trend or not. I'd give it a week or two after the debate.

That being said, looking on fivethirtyeight shows a surge in Trump's odds of winning following Hillary Clinton's pneumonia coming to light (Hillary Clinton's odds of winning fell below 60% within a few days of it, and on the day of the debate, Trump had the highest chance of winning he's ever had), so I think it's also possible that Clinton's pneumonia gave Trump a brief surge in the polls, with the debates being what people needed to remember that Trump is an idiot (not that I know how you could forget that, but still). Either way, correlation =/= causation and this is all speculation, but I feel like Clinton's odds will go back up within a few weeks (Trump did get absolutely slaughtered in the debate)
 
  • Like
Reactions: JES
I've been following this election since last year. The thing is that, prior to the end of the Olympics, a sizeable amount of people don't pay attention to the race. This could have worked in Trump's favor since he essentially had fresh ears listening in at that point. He did pretty well in not behaving as a lunatic between then and the debate. Of course, in light of last night's performance, Trump really killed his momentum and his chance to appear more moderate. And today's news is him reverting to his old ways. Thank God.
 
Most people have their minds made up about this election right now. Trump hasn't really gotten higher than 50% but he is still close to Hillary which, after a terrible performance from last night, is a blessing for him. If Hillary pulls like a 4 or 5 point gap after the second debate than this election is over
 

Skitty

i dont care if i ever come down♪
is a Battle Simulator Moderator Alumnus
I thought it was a draw tbh, he did well considering Lester Holt's extreme bias. I'm really surprised Hillary didn't faint/have a coughing fit/soil herself/die.

The LA Times trend poll showed Trump gaining +0.5 points after the debates, so I don't think it'll really hurt him much. What the American people think > what bias mainstream media pundits think.
 

Chou Toshio

Over9000
is an Artist Alumnusis a Forum Moderator Alumnusis a Community Contributor Alumnusis a Contributor Alumnusis a Top Smogon Media Contributor Alumnusis a Battle Simulator Moderator Alumnus
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/the-choice-2016/

More important than the debate as a resource, imo. Frontline, "The Choice"


VP, Midlantic National Bank @meetings to discuss dealings with Trump's bankrupt organization--
"As far as being a CEO, and understanding the numbers, and understanding the ramifications... it doesn't seem like he took economics or accounting in college."

@keeping Trump on board, because of his name, because of his brand--
"I think bankers look at Trump more as a promoter than as a CEO."

Frontline, "The Choice" did a great job at doing what it does best-- giving context, and humanizing the candidates, framing them so we can understand them as people and as individuals. I like Donald Trump as a person now a lot more than I did before watching (which I knew would probably happen). I also am now even more finely informed of his weaknesses and poor judgement.

I also feel like I understand the Clinton story better as well. It doesn't do much in terms of how I see her as a candidate, but understanding her more as a person has its merits.
 
Last edited:

Bughouse

Like ships in the night, you're passing me by
is a Site Content Manageris a Forum Moderator Alumnusis a CAP Contributor Alumnusis a Tiering Contributor Alumnusis a Contributor Alumnus
Trump looked pretty bad in the debate, but it doesn't seem to be hurting him much in the polls, if at all.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Probably some sort of delayed effect, though. We'll see what the polls look like in a week.
there have been exactly 0 scientific polls since the debate lol. It'll take minimum 4 days, more likely a week, to get a good poll out into the field and analyzed.

EDIT: the so-called "daily trackers" track across 5 or 6 days, so you can see slight movements from one day to the next, but at this point any movement in these is more likely to be caused by sampling changes day to day i.e. daily trackers aren't literally calling the same people every day. They rotate their sample from a pool. what we really need is a poll where the entire time range it was out in the field was post-debate.
 

UncleSam

Leading this village
is a Forum Moderator Alumnus
If you were listening to them speak, Trump had no clue what he was talking about on most of the policy positions. It turned me off that the moderator kept talking about meaningless stuff like spending ten minutes on the birther issue, but it was obvious that on everything except trade (where Hillary just bald faced lied about not having been pro-TPP) Trump was blathering while she had a good understanding of the issues.

I think this was an important step for Clinton, though not in the way most people think. I thought during the debate that Trumps' answers, while atrocious, were nonetheless more interesting than Clinton's, and that he was actually more likely to connect with outside voters. A scientific poll released this morning (which I'd link to if not on my phone) bore out my suspicions exactly - 5% more felt Clinton 'won' the debate (surprised this is such a low differential tbh, anyone accustomed to debate could tell you she absolutely crushed him), and yet three times as many undecideds said they were going to vote for him as a result than said they were going to vote for her, with virtually no one who had made up their minds switching sides (3% for Clinton vs 2% for Trump). Again my apologies for not linking the poll here, I will do so when back at a computer but it was a scientific poll conducted yesterday (ie after the debate) or I wouldn't have paid attention to it.

However, as I said before, this was an important step for Clinton towards winning for a reason no one is talking about: she doesn't need undecided voters. She needs her base to show up for her and for turnout to be high. There are way more liberals than conservatives in the country, and no liberal watching that debate could possibly come away saying Clinton is anywhere near as bad as Trump.

All Clinton needs to win in November are the 'Blue Firewall' states - Colorado, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. While winning undecided voters in Florida or Ohio would be nice (and while she is probably in no worse position to win those states), they are ultimately irrelevant. Hillary undeniably energized her base with her debate performance, and in the aforementioned Firewall states she is already working with +10 or +20% liberal to conservative differentials, who she just needs to show up and vote for her.

I doubt the polls will shift much in the aftermath for the reasons I described previously (though any shift is likely to be good for Clinton), but look particularly for the enthusiasm gap to close. If it does, then her advantage will be significant, and not well reflected by polls simply guessing at the electorate breakdown.

Tl;dr I will post the poll I'm referencing later (too hard from phone qq) but while Trump will probably get more undecided voters in swing states to his side after the debate, Clinton energized her base like she had to and definitely gave herself a near-decisive advantage in the places she has to win. Clinton was probably behind previously tbh due to the enthusiasm gap meaning many people who were going to say they prefer her in a poll were unlikely to bother showing up, while now the script is flipped: Trump is very likely to over perform his real strength in upcoming polls than she is. Just look at 2012 as a good example of this: the polls were off by 3 points because way more liberals showed up on Election Day than anticipated, because they were enthusiastic about President Obama. Clinton went a long way towards recapturing that enthusiasm Monday night.
 
Last edited:

Adamant Zoroark

catchy catchphrase
is a Contributor Alumnus
If you were listening to them speak, Trump had no clue what he was talking about on most of the policy positions. It turned me off that the moderator kept talking about meaningless stuff like spending ten minutes on the birther issue, but it was obvious that on everything except trade (where Hillary just bald faced lied about not having been pro-TPP) Trump was blathering while she had a good understanding of the issues.

I think this was an important step for Clinton, though not in the way most people think. I thought during the debate that Trumps' answers, while atrocious, were nonetheless more interesting than Clinton's, and that he was actually more likely to connect with outside voters. A scientific poll released this morning (which I'd link to if not on my phone) bore out my suspicions exactly - 5% more felt Clinton 'won' the debate (surprised this is such a low differential tbh, anyone accustomed to debate could tell you she absolutely crushed him), and yet three times as many undecideds said they were going to vote for him as a result than said they were going to vote for her, with virtually no one who had made up their minds switching sides (3% for Clinton vs 2% for Trump). Again my apologies for not linking the poll here, I will do so when back at a computer but it was a scientific poll conducted yesterday (ie after the debate) or I wouldn't have paid attention to it.

However, as I said before, this was an important step for Clinton towards winning for a reason no one is talking about: she doesn't need undecided voters. She needs her base to show up for her and for turnout to be high. There are way more liberals than conservatives in the country, and no liberal watching that debate could possibly come away saying Clinton is anywhere near as bad as Trump.

All Clinton needs to win in November are the 'Blue Firewall' states - Colorado, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. While winning undecided voters in Florida or Ohio would be nice (and while she is probably in no worse position to win those states), they are ultimately irrelevant. Hillary undeniably energized her base with her debate performance, and in the aforementioned Firewall states she is already working with +10 or +20% liberal to conservative differentials, who she just needs to show up and vote for her.

I doubt the polls will shift much in the aftermath for the reasons I described previously (though any shift is likely to be good for Clinton), but look particularly for the enthusiasm gap to close. If it does, then her advantage will be significant, and not well reflected by polls simply guessing at the electorate breakdown.

Tl;dr I will post the poll I'm referencing later (too hard from phone qq) but while Trump will probably get more undecided voters in swing states to his side after the debate, Clinton energized her base like she had to and definitely gave herself a near-decisive advantage in the places she has to win. Clinton was probably behind previously tbh due to the enthusiasm gap meaning many people who were going to say they prefer her in a poll were unlikely to bother showing up, while now the script is flipped: Trump is very likely to over perform his real strength in upcoming polls than she is. Just look at 2012 as a good example of this: the polls were off by 3 points because way more liberals showed up on Election Day than anticipated, because they were enthusiastic about President Obama. Clinton went a long way towards recapturing that enthusiasm Monday night.
In terms of party registration, there are typically more Democrats than Republicans (which, bizarrely, includes solid red states like Oklahoma and West Virginia), but the only statistics I can find talking about political ideology as opposed to party registration show more conservatives than liberals. This could very well be because a lot of the registered Democrats in southern states like Oklahoma and West Virginia actually lean conservative, explaining why they go red despite having more Democrats than Republicans, unlike Democrats in blue states (iirc a similar effect happens with blue state Republicans, but the other way around). No one ideology holds a majority & moderates are likely to be ahead pretty soon.

That being said, much like your point with liberals, I can't really see any moderate saying Clinton looked anywhere near as bad as Trump did in the debate. Either one of them will need moderates to win the election, and I can't really see Trump winning among that group.
 

UncleSam

Leading this village
is a Forum Moderator Alumnus
Hey so here's that poll I mentioned earlier

Worth noting that Gravis isn't super reliable, and that +5 Clinton is probably not a representative sample of the general electorate. Didn't realize it was a Gravis poll when I was on my phone earlier, but it's still a scientific post-debate poll which makes it much better than the random online polls that have been cited various places lately.

Also Adamant Zoroark the issue isn't who is registered as what, it's that a vast majority of adults who are not registered voters would break Democrat if they bothered to vote. There's basically never been a high-turnout election where the Democrats lost the presidency (at least not in recent memory). Granted this is a difficult thing to measure, but there's a reason that Democrats constantly push for get-out-the-vote operations and such: they win heavily even with totally non-partisan efforts of this sort.
 

UncleSam

Leading this village
is a Forum Moderator Alumnus
It's the only scientific (ie not online) poll that's out right now, so I guess you can make fun of it if you like. The electorate assumptions they make are obviously biased a bit and therefore the results are skewed a few points, which makes sense considering I'd expect more of a +10 - +15 Clinton margin rather than +5 on who won the debate. But making dick posts like that doesn't really help anyone.
 

Bughouse

Like ships in the night, you're passing me by
is a Site Content Manageris a Forum Moderator Alumnusis a CAP Contributor Alumnusis a Tiering Contributor Alumnusis a Contributor Alumnus
There has actually been one decent scientific poll since the debate from the morning consult.

https://morningconsultintelligence.com/public/mc/160915_topline_Topicals_LIKELY_VOTERS_v3_AP.pdf

However, post debate polls that are on too small of a time frame are inherently bad. Polls work by calling people on a list until you get through to them. If the window is 2 days, you miss a lot of people, namely the ones that are not super enthusiastic about the race. There's a reason polls traditionally do their timeframe as 4+ days, not 1 or 2.



In terms of notable results from this poll (again take all of these with a grain of salt, given the above):
Hillary won debate by 23 points
Trump lost on his favorables (ie poll showed debate improved/hurt favorability among voters) by 7 points.
Clinton won on hers by 10 points.
27% of people thought Lester Holt was biased to Hillary - aka really not very many people, probably not many undecideds.
59% of people think there was a better nominee for the Republican party than Trump
52% of people think there was a better nominee for the Democratic party than Clinton
People found the debate informative and entertaining way more than boring and they are likely to watch future debates




There's also this one, not that I trust this one any more than Gravis, since internet polls from unheard of sources are just not easy to vet... they only polled one other time this election
https://twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/781184551607558145
 
Last edited:

Chou Toshio

Over9000
is an Artist Alumnusis a Forum Moderator Alumnusis a Community Contributor Alumnusis a Contributor Alumnusis a Top Smogon Media Contributor Alumnusis a Battle Simulator Moderator Alumnus
I like Uncle Sam's analysis-- after watching the debate and Frontline, "More enthusiastic to vote for her" is definitely how I feel coming away from the last few days.
 

TheValkyries

proudly reppin' 2 superbowl wins since DEFLATEGATE
Out of all the things trump does why is doing business with Cuba the one we care about?

Pointing out Trumps ties to Cuba and Russia is some McCarthyist bullshit that doesn't even make sense. It's equivalent to the rhetoric which calls Political Correctness a wing of fascism.
 
Pretty much. And here is another question: if he broke the law before, would be break the law as President, and to what extent?

At the risk of incurring the wrath of fate itself, I have to ponder the question: what is the worst that could happen?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Users: 1, Guests: 1)

Top