promised the masses I'd do a different gimmick every week so I've decided to go over every single ORAS Ubers game from the past week + a small writeup on my thoughts! Please let me know what you, the reader, wants to see next week!
Oceania (byronthewellwell) vs US MW + East (The Dovahneer) replay
Byron has loaded a very odd HO team, reminiscent of Astounded and LucosDiCampos' stint in the tier where answers to most foes do not exist but you simply are "built different" with the combination of Mega Gengar and Ditto handling fat and setup spam respectively. At first glance I'd assume this is one of those Ice Beam Ekiller squads with max Speed Primal Groudon and a double scarf in Xerneas, with Gengar patching up weaknesses (maybe just double STAB / DBond / Protect). Dovahneer on the other hand has gone the more traditional hyper offense route with what I assume on preview is double Sash (RayRai) and an Excadrill which is pretty OK at keeping rocks off! Arceus I'd personally pick Ekiller then SD Groundceus but CM Groundy is fine, too, with mixed RP Groudon.
Matchup wise a lot relies on the sets Byron's brought and how much of that Dovah can sus out.
Straight from lead I am proven wrong with a Stealth Rock Fairyceus being lead, which through Earth Power > Stealth Rock > Gengar guarantees that Rocks stay up but at the cost of of Byron's Gengar. Technically, Byron took a risk with the hard Gengar in because Earthquake means Dovah now has better momentum and a death sack but no one seems to be running EQ so I am kinda yapping. Taunt Mega Gengar stops Primal Groudon from setting up which would have otherwise forced 2 mons to go down not accounting for moves missing. Dovah shows that his Rayquaza was actually mixed Lifed Orb all along as Byron pivots into the Surf and takes it down handily. With Sludge Wave Mega Gengar disposing the Fairy, Yveltal comes i and threatens to either be scarf or just plain click Sucker Punch to KO so Dovah plays it safe with a Darkrai switch which ends up eating an Oblivion Wing bringing it close to an OHKO! Unfortunately, despite putting the Yveltal to sleep, Thunder doesn't land on the subsequent turn and Yveltal wakes up to KO. The IceBeam Ekiller ends up belonging to Dovah who reveals Ice Beam on a Knock Off turn. At this point the game would have to come down to Dovah getting a lucky break through crits as GeoXern sets up, takes the ekiller down and dodges a Precipice Blade to seal the game.
Only real comment I have for this game is that Dovah actually DID have a way out despite the miss and first turn wake by setting up on Xerneas and hoping to crit the Espeed; at that point, Ditto is forced to do mind-games with the back Mega Gengar and Primal Groudon can STILL do the things it was gonna have to do even if the Xerneas hadn't dodged Precipice Blades.
Brazil (Thiago Nunes) vs US West (shadowtime2000) replay
Neither of these players is who you'd expect see in an ORAS Ubers matchup so team choice was gonna be more or less novel. TNunes is on some balance where double Ground is mostly telegraphed that has a (mostly) solid defensive core with Yvel + Gira-O + PDon + what I assume is gonna be max HP Groundceus. I almost wanna say it's Choice Scarf Yveltal because this team has absolutely 0 way of gaining momentum otherwise; it turns out to be Scarf Xern instead. Shadowtime has what I would call "Nayrz HO without a breaker" since it's 5/6 same mons with Deoxys-A replaced with a Giratina-O. Arceus is expected to be an E-Killer and Gira-O a Hex set.
Matchup is heavily favoring Thiago if I am reading the teams right; shadow's Fairy resist is gonna be an offensive PDon and the m2 answer is a Gira-O that also happens to be the Groundceus answer so it might get overwhelmed fast. Shadow has to play really well to get into a position where he can setup with, well, ANYTHING. Last mon Return or Facade Mence can def do it but other than that? Bleak.
Shadow leads a fairly obvious Dialga whereas TN leads a Xerneas which gets forced out in case of fast Flash Cannon (bad set but you gotta account for it). Primal Groudon shows that it's Rocks which makes sense, gets Toxic'd and starts shuffling opponents around. HP is important on it as TN doesn't have a different GeoXern answer meaning if he drops below 60% he risks losing the game on the spot- this leads to Groundceus coming in on the Salamence which immediately doubles out to Giratina-O. TN Ice Beams the Giratina-O and gets phazed out by Dragon Tail; this sequence covers a possible CM but why it's Dragon Tail I cannot be sure. With Xerneas forced in, shadow's answer is... a specially defensive Dialga? Genuinely have not seen this set since XY. Well, it works out here, as it Roars the Xerneas out stopping a potential Geomancy but in reality just dropping to 14%. Gira-O forces out Dialga with a possible Shadow Sneak atp, with shadowtime covering it with Xerneas which instead takes a Shadow Ball signaling that Thiago either read the switch or is running SOME speed on his Giratina-O. PDon comes in, Moonblast bounces off, Giratina-O comes in and dodges the Plume burn and instead gets the KO with Hex. After some more shuffling around, we find out that Arceus is in fact E-Killer and probably bulky as Leftovers get revealed. Yveltal shows no item but is immediately switched into the Ekiller signalling it's at worst a bulky Scarf set. Thiago Nunes wins a potential speed tie between the 2 Scarf Xerneas and is back into the driver's seat, only to give the Primal Groudon a free setup opportunity. Fortunately, shadow reveals that he is in fact physical RP without Swords Dance so he cannot sweep without some crit action. Giratina-O removes the Rocks after living a Stone Edge with relative ease but! The combination of Shadow Ball and Shadow Sneak is not enough to take down the PDon! Ruh roh we're now in danger of 1 crit ending the game! Thankfully, the Precipice Blades do not crit the Groundceus and thus Tnunes still has a shot. Ekiller sets up as Yveltal comes in only for it to get to crit on a turn where you'd need a SUPER high roll and your opponent to have next to no bulk to kill otherwise, securing a win for Thiago as Mence is fodder to the Yvel + Groundceus combo left over.
Overall I gotta say this is my least favorite match out of the past week's ORAS games. A critical hit deciding a game where both players loaded teams extremely weak to some of the best mons in the tier.
France (royal1604) vs China (cscl) replay
Matchup looks like what one would expect from these two players: Royal is on a bulky offense with Ho-Oh and Giratina-O with a dubious looking Mewtwo and an Arceus forme that is equally hard to predict its type. Cscl is on some Toxic Spikes + Mega Khan stuff with either Normal spam or Ground spam thanks to the Arceus. The Gira-O raises some red flags here which some might equate to bad building, but the reality is far more nefarious as the game unfolds.
I am not gonna sugarcoat it, without the Gira-O I'd give it a 70-30 in Royal's favor on matchup. The Giratina-O actually made me think this was gonna be a 90-10 but...
surprise FastPass time! I was elated to see Iron Defense clicked with Scolipede into the Xerneas. Kangaskhan is a counter-counterlead for Ho-Oh which Royal leads to try and limit the damage the Scolipede will do. Xerneas comes in on the Fake Out and obviously cscl doesn't wanna give it the Geomancy so Primal Groudon eats a Moonblast, only for cscl to safely double into into Scolipede; this covers the Moonblast play brilliantly as (I assume) it is EVed to take 2 Modest Moonblasts. In a just world, the game ends in the following 4 turns. Iron Defense on the Giratina-O, Baton Pass into Xerneas, covering Draco Meteor, Thunder Wave, and Dragon Tail, Geomancy on the switchout and Ingrain on the Roar from Primal Groudon. What cscl does not account for is french luck; he greedily setsup a 2nd Geomancy while Royal Toxic's to force an Aromatherapy and/or Rest. Royal then proceeds to gets Rocks up, hit 6 Precipice Blades in a row, crit the 7th one and then hit an 8th one to seal the game. Could cscl have been less greedy and take the guaranteed 2HKO on the rest of the team and 3HKO on the Primal Groudon? 100%, especially after it's revealed it's MM2X and bulky Ho-Oh meaning they are both setup fodder-not to mention the Darkceus.
With Xerneas dead the rest of the game is a boring match. I wish innovation payed off but everything went Royal's way afterwards. The PuP Mega Khan is covered by the Will-O-Wisp M2X, the CM Groundceus loses to the toxic ww ho-oh as does the SD Primal Groudon and Darkceus is just fast and bulky enough to deal with PDon.
Europe (Hack) vs Benelux (Ainzcrad) replay
As this is my team, I don't wanna reveal too much. I'll say that we didn't know what to load into Ainzcrad and instead loaded Lance Stall with some edits because we straight felt lost. We knew Ainzcrad had a fuckton of Yvel and Mega Gengar usage but we simply said "Hack he must".
Matchup favors Ainz as he has Mega Gengar and we have no Pursuit trapper; we're actually running Clefable and half the team can get paralyzed by Klefki, save for the Groundceus.
In-game, Groundceus gets Will-O'd early meaning Hex is gonna fuck us up if we are ever low. Giratina rests early, so now physical attackers are mighty threatening. Speaking of, Ho-Oh is Life Orb, our best check is asleep and 3HKOed while Stealth Rock is up, and Groundceus is burned so it's not gonna outheal the damage it's taking.
the game then ends.
LatAM (Mister McLovin) vs India (freezai) replay
Both players have opted to go with Broken Xern + Broken Yveltal + a Broken Mega. Unfortunately, Mr McLovin has Klefki, the fraudulent mon whereas freezai has Latios, the balance breaker. McLovin is expected to have a Groundceus or a Waterceus here because I just can't imagine Klefki + E-killer here. freezai on the other hand is gonna be going ALL IN with an E-killer, guaranteed.
Matchup I'd say favors whoever positions better. Latios should be 4 Attacks as that set is broken. Both players actually have more than 1 way to stop GeoXern from sweeping AND a ScarfXern answer. Fantastic!
PDon mirror lead MU; freezai switches out whereas McLovin stays in, signalling he's probably invested in Speed, Attack, or both. Latios is in, unscathed, and immediately it forces progress. Klefki comes in on a Psyshock and takes a lot, with Latios being forced out. Play Rough hits the incoming Primal Groudon for less than nothing and forces out Klefki on some SUPER telegraphed Rocks. These rocks are actually massive as they enable the two birds AND put Klefki in a position where HP Fire can kill at any point. McLovin reveals a Defog Waterceus which gives Freezai a free Gengar; with no Ghost resist, Shadow Ball is an easy click which BARELY doesn't 2HKO the Primal Groudon. McLovin insists that hazards will win him the game as Latios comes in; losing Primal Groudon is never an option so Klefki takes the Grass Knot. McLovin keeps up the plays NOT fearing the HP Fire and not Thunder Waving either in case of Primal Groudon, instead opting for a layer of Spikes on the obvious PDon. freezai is no slouch either, knowing his opponent is forced to switch out he puts up the Rocks again since the PDon answer seems to a Waterceus that is lacking one of Toxic, Ice Beam, or Judgement; by staying in on it with Primal Groudon he can figure out which move is missing based on how the following exchange works out. Ice Beam is revealed which signal that Waterceus is probably not running Toxic- that, or it's setup fodder for a potential Mega Mence which otherwise rolls him over. Roar from Freezai rolls a super favorable Klefki, forcing it out and in comes in the Waterceus. This is still a favorable outcome for freezai as the Precipice roll shows it's mostly likely timid with a ton of phys def. We're now back in a scenario where both Primal Groudons are in; the difference is, freezai has 1 Spike and Rocks on his side of the field, meaning that under NO circumstances is he allowed to give the Xerneas a free setup... so back into latios he goes on the 3rd Precipice in a row. Psyshock chips the incoming Klefki which at this point must think this Latios is not running HP Fire which it kills it with. Xerneas now in, revealing it is actually Choice Scarf as it takes down Latios but is subsequently trapped by Mega Gengar and dropped. Waterceus is McLovin's answer, which takes down the Mega Gengar with Judgement but not before it gets Destiny Bonded, taking itself down in the process. Ironically, this could now mean that McLovin loses to freezai's own Scarf Xern as his Fairy resist is at 26% after switching in! Thankfully for him, it turns out to be GeoXern which is in range of Mega Mence after it gets Oblivion Winged by Yveltal. But, hold on a second, doesn't the Mega Mence win? Frustration gets 1, it gets 2, oh my, only Ekiller is standing in its way and it can't 2HKO, McLovin has stolen the win from the jaws of def- he of course gets crit by Ekiller and freezai wins.
On turn 22, as freezai, you should always Geomancy. The risk is your Xerneas is now dead after a Knock into Oblivion Wing combo and Yveltal is close to full... which still leaves you with a WinCon in SD Arceus? Like, you are obviously faster than the Yveltal and you can either fish for roll with Espeed or you straight up kill it.
US South (The Strap) vs Canada (fardin) replay
I look at this matchup and I see that Strap did the bare minimum when facing vs Strap: he loaded a bunch of mons that bust down on fat and a Klefki that improofs for HO. Meanwhile, fardin has loaded Double Dark trying to catch the Latios/Gengar core which he does face! is it gonna be enough? find out right now!
Ditto good vs stall? Nah lemme sack it to get Stealth Rock up I am sure this is gonna work out!
Mega Tyranitar used Pursuit! Primal Groudon threatens the sole answer to Mega Gengar so fardin is forced out, which The Strap uses as an opportunity to bring in his Mega Gengar and Protect to guarantee the Mega. Yveltal doesn't show an item but it also doesn't attack the Mega Gengar so the set is still up in the air as Mega Ttar comes in and takes some Rocks chip. Unfortunately for fardin, Strap has the cteam ready with Will-O-Wisp + Focus Blast Mega Gengar. FORTUNATELY for fardin, his Mega Ttar is nimble enough to dodge the latter. The game is now nigh impossible as Strap's best stall breaker is gone. Latios comes in and Grass Knots the TTar but it simply CANNOT get the roll as Ttar is now back to full thanks to Rest. Chansey covers the 2nd Grass Knot. A bunch of stall stuff happens like Waterceus Defogging hazards and Strap having Rockceus for the ultimate fardin cteam, but it's still not enough as the stall-lord of Ubers claims another victim.
Can't really overanalyze this game; the Focus Blast miss decided a ton and even fardin admitted he lost to the combination of Rockceus + Mega Gengar. SAD!
Spain (wamr, my beloved) vs Asia (malefic) replay
Wamr has loaded a team I am 90% sure is on his scout already while Malefic has loaded something I'd raise an eyebrow at even back in 2016 in Double Primal + Diancie. Both players have loaded Latios as their balance breakers, which I am happy about because this means that I get to see Latios scare one another out or one of them lose the game of chicken. I was guessing Ekiller on both sides, wamr's because it's just a good fit on any offense and malefic because what the hell else are you running here.
PDon counter leads the Diancie with Protect getting the mega out freely while Latios comes in to ignore the 2nd one. Wamr doesn't wanna get blown up so into Xerneas he goes on a... Calm Mind? Odd choice here but fine enough, now wamr knows not to expect Grass Knot at least. PDon is forced in as the threat of a Geomancy is simply too much to ignore, taking a crisp 35% from Moonblast and Toxicing the incoming Latios. Wamr opts to just hit what is in front of him, which turns out to be a Mega Diancie. Since he wants to keep the Latios as it's his Ground resist, PDon is switched into the Rocks click. EP from Diancie does a solid 40 and then the gem drops to Precipice blades. Latios gets to come in and potentially setup here, which it does, with wamr using this opportunity to set his own Stealth Rocks. Dragon Pulse is revealed! Good short term because it means you get a KO on PDon without the drop of Draco Meteor, but it also is just way worse usually. Xerneas actually gets to GEOMANCY here! uh oh, if this isn't an E-killer it could get grim.... and it turns out to be Steelceus which doesn't mean malefic is out of the hole he dug himself into with this team choice. Thankfully for him, it's not Focus Blast so Judgement picks off the weakened Xerneas. Unfortunately for him, and something I didn't bring up in matchup because this game went by fast, his whole team is slower than Darkrai AND there's 2 mons that give it a free setup opportunity. Nasty Plot is clicked, a crit happens which just speeds up the inevitable, wamr wins without revealing his Arceus set.
Can't say I didn't see this coming when I saw the Darkrai on preview. I've actually done my fair share of "Darkrai answer Diancie" builds but unlike malefic I let that shit rot in my teambuilder or I proceed to delete it. Very dominant performance by my favorite ORAS Ubers player.
Metagame Thoughts
I think the metagame has evolved past the need to load Sample HO every game, with some balance, a stall and some BO loaded this week. HOWEVER! I also am seeing a lot of disrespect on Darkrai's name and even MORE disrespect on DD PDon's name. Sample HO also seems to just win vs a ton of things people are loading which is always a sign of complacency, me no likey... The wacky sets I've seen this tour should hopefully get ironed out by playoffs time where more experience is gained but I am excited to see where this tournament takes the tier of ORAS.
Team Oceania (6) vs (4) Team Brazil 
Team France (3) vs (6) Team US Midwest + East 
Team Spain (6) vs (4) Team China
Team Europe (9) vs (1) Team Latin America 
Team US South (5) vs (5) Team Benelux 
Team Asia (3) vs (7) Team Canada 
Team India (6) vs (4) Team US West 
- if team needs GOAT to win he wins , as simple as that.
