The first day of LC has been a pretty interesting one by my side. As expected, there is a lot of confusion and different team archetypes that have potential, yet they could be good or bad. The subjects I will touch on this post will be put in the next order:
1. Quickbans
2. Pokemon that will be relevant in the metagame
Have in mind that these will be my estimations on what will the metagame become. Let's begin.
QUICKBANS
->
->
After Galarian Corsola's departure, I feel that the next to go is Cutiefly. The fact that it only has an abusable check in Ferroseed means it can make use of its viability as a very quick Web setter to let its companions go wild. Quiver Dance also enables it to be able to put some work on the opposing team, and it can even bluff all of that to just run an utility set with either Stun Spore to cripple fast threats, or U-turn to provide momentum. It is really easy to lead with it, and it offers a lot that ends up working.
The tides haven't calmed yet, as while Cutiefly may be gone, Gastly is on the loose. First and most, Gastly is a very straightforward wallbreaker that makes use of its double STAB combination to wreck the whole metagame. On top of that, Trapinch benefits insanely Gastly on a great extent, but it can put a lot of work on archetypes such as Hazard spam (acting as a provisional spinblocker and wallbreaker from my insight) or Ghost spam (both Gastly and Sinistea control each other's threats). Secondly, Pursuit gone is very big for it being able to escape when needed unharmed so it leaves Pokemon such as Pawniard unable to counterreact.
After things calm down, Trapinch is still goong at it eating Pawniard and Onix alive and enabling a ton of threats in that meta state such as Sinistea, Nasty Plot Vullaby, Wingull, and many more. Pawniard not having Knock Off is big for Trapinch, and Trapinch can even use Superpower to beat Ferroseed if needed. No need to explain again how stupid is switching into the threat you need to trap and being unscathered.
POKEMON THAT WILL BE RELEVANT IN THE METAGAME
This point will classify the Pokemon under these terms:
1. Suspect wise
2. Will be better
Starting from suspect wise Pokémon:
Sinistea, while its coverage is very lackluster, the fact that both Knock Off has a very small distribution, and Pursuit is gone, means it can act as a Shell Smash user easily. To compensate the lack of good coverage, it can cripple common switch-ins such as Vullaby and Pawniard, meaning that this Ghost-type Pokemon isn't something you, can handle easily. +2 Shadow Ball wrecks a lot of the metagame and manages to net the 2HKO on the premier Steel-types in Pawniard and Ferroseed. Stored Power acts as a very decent coverage option, meaning that only Vullaby can switch in, and even so, it does not appreciate getting burned. A cool adition in the metagame, though it may get annoying to deal with atla some point.
Day 1 has been a show for the fighting bird. It has shown to have almost no reliable switch ins thanks to Scrappy Close Combat coming from 20 Attack, a blessing in a Ghost-type metagame. If it wasn't enough, it can even forgo coverage like Poison Jab to run a SD + Defog set with only Knock Off and Close Combat to do the dirty job. What I think is its best set is Scarf, which allows to threaten a humongous handful of threats with Brave Bird / Poison Jab / Close Combat / Knock Off. The problem pending here is that Pokemon such as Spritzee don't care about Poison Jab, as it is a fairly weak coverage for a Pokemon above the average when it comes to breaking. With the time I could see G-Farfetch'd improving along with the metagame switches, increasingly getting better.
We all know it. Onix's DD Head Smash set is really hard to handle even unboosted, as it nets a great quantity of 2HKOes on bulky Pokemon such as Corphish, ensuring OHKo on threats like Vullaby... but the fun begins here. Onix, knowing that it can break the opposing team depending on whether the team has an answer, it can force switches to set Stealth Rock up, meaning that it can become a quite troublesome threat as well as the top dog of the metagame. What's worse is that you have to play between its pther sets in SturdyJuice + Endure or Weak Armor to see if your team is in danger or not.
Wingull may have lost Supersonic Skystrike, but remains as annoying as always. With a sudden removal of Electric- and Grass-types like Magnemite, Staryu, Tirtouga, Foongus and Snivy, Water spam has seen its sheer power rise a lot. However, that also meant that Chinchou would become the only best Electric-type Pokemon, being able to be a nuisance for Wingull. Having that in mind, it can make use of its powerful STAB combination to subjugate common threats in the metagame, as well as make use of utility in Knock Off to cripple bulkier threats such as Ferroseed and Spritzee in order to weaken them. Given the fact that Scarf Chinchou comes stronger than ever, so does Protect,being able to act as a Scarf scouter and allow Wingull have the upper hand in such situations.
Complemented to this, Vullaby still has a lot of strong assets that have only gotten better. The fact that Wingull is back means that Vullaby can work on Flying spam, knocking Pawniard out with Heat Wave for Wingull, and many other things these two can do together. Not only that, the fact that despite losing Hidden Power affected against Onix doesn't stop it from being hard to deduce which set is.
The next Pokemon are related to a state months into the metagame where events have already happened. Bulbasaur being freed means sun will be back and more strong than ever, as Vulpix has Bulbasaur on its side. Bulbasaur got Weather Ball in compensation for losing Hidden Power Fire, which means it has become a much more stupid Bellsprout that can either setup or put something to sleep. Double Sun sweeper teams may also be a reality with both Bulbasaur and Oddish acting for each other. However, the loss of Z-Moves, as well as a lack of strength puts Oddish aside for its viability as a sun sweeper, meaning that only Bulbasaur may be the only one to use. Sun may be much harder to face with a much faster abuser.
Squirtle's case of getting Shell Smash is a blessing. But a cursed one, as having a very complemented and solid coverage in Hydro Pump / Ice Beam / Aura Sphere means it can hit everything in the metagame very strongly, except Mareanie and Frillish. Those two are able to keep an eye on it with their sheer bulk and resistances to every attack, though being able to do that and forcing teams to carry one of those seems a bits exaggerated.
Lastly, Grookey getting its HA Grassy Surge is insane. It posseses the imprtant stats to act as a setup sweeper with sets such as Substitute + SD, or even SD + 3 Attacks.+2 Wood Hammer on Grassy Surge is likely to severely dent any Pokemon that comes into it, and those who doesn't are hit by Drain Punch. The biggest part about it is how it benefits having Grassy Surge on a metagame with Ground-types, which means that there will be many Pokemon that benefits from added resistance, such as Mareanie, Pawniard and Cufant, which I will touch later. U-turn on a defensive pivot set is likely to be a big nuisance in the metagame once it settles down.
Pokemon that will get better:
Dwebble is in a really great spot and many of the metagame players are completely unaware of the importance of the Pokemon in hyper offensive archetypes. First, the overall improvement of Ghost-types has allowed tohe settle them, as excellent spinblockers, while the overwhelming presence of them has only made Pawniard more common than ever to act as a check to them and thus being able to compress Flying type check and Defog deterrent all in one. Having the hazard removal control set up, Dwebble is probably one of the best leads that will take over the metagame with Hazard Spam as one of the best archetypes in the metagame, with so many abusers such as Corphish, Croagunk, Scarf users such as Rufflet, and even SD Rapud Spin Drilbur. I will elaborate on all of these throughout this part.
Dewpider will be the only Web setter that remains, doing really great its work with no faster threats that can annoy him such as Staryu, Snivy and such. In fact, it is benefittial in a metagame without decent Water resists thanks to its natural bulk, "Adaptability" Scald and Giga Drain to manage those threats. It can even use its Special Defense to take out an annoying Pokemon. Webs is probably the second best archetype in the metagame right now, but will keep improving until it ties with hazard spam.
One Pokemon that unifies both archetypes is Pawniard, acting as Flying-type check, Ghost-type check, Defog deterrent and even setup sweeper all in one. Nothing much to say except that maybe it will be a mainstay throughout the generation.
Drifloon losing Recycle has been a bigger relief than expected, since its good Speed and natural bulk can be used to compound an actually annoying spinblocker that can cripple Pokemon such as Corphish and Pawniard with Will-O-Wisp and trigger Berry Juice with Substitute. Hell, it may even be a cool Ghost-type for Ghost spam as an offensive setup sweeper with Substitute + CM sets. What we don't know is whether it recovers Recycle via Pokemon Home when it arrives or not. Probably going to be a solid Pokémon.
The inminent departure of Galarian Corsola from the metagame is the starting point for Frillish as the best spinblocker in the metagame. Having a great bulk and typing, it can help to control multiple threats such as Water types, and cripple enemies. The departure of Foongus and Snivy, as well as a bad distribution of Knock Off and the departure of Magnemite has helped it a lot, so expect it being one of the top dogs in this metagame.
As many of the Water-types, Corphish has benefitted being able to put many Ground-types such as Onix, Mudbray and Trapinch in check. Staryu, Snivy and Foongus gone, SD going ham means its only reliable switch in is Croagunk, which has also gotten a lot better with the surge of Water types getting good. Corphish is going tohe be a threat to have in mind while teambuilding, as well as one of the most bread and butter wallbreakers we have.
Chinchou is probably the biggest winner of all the listed Pokemon. No Mienfoo, no Foongus, no Magnemite, as well as ZMoves gone means that defensive pivot sets are the rage. As if it wasn't enough, having a notable lack of Water-type answers means Chinchou can finally shine being able to answer with its Scarf sets much better.
Crosgunk has gone overlooked, but will be much more notable once metagame settles down. Both of his Nasty Plot and Mixed sets have gotten a lot better, being able to switch into Corphish much kore easily than before. No Abra means a lot, as well as no Mienfoo. The metagame hasn't got decent answers to what Croagunk may have, and Nasty Plot sets exert their role compression much more reliably with the already mentioned events.
The gain of Close Combat meant big things for Rufflet. It would probably now be able to replace Doduo as a strong Scarf user that can 2HKO most of threats and OHKO anythong that does not resist its STABs. It will be a cool option on Flying spam teams, though hazard removal is important for its success.
Rapid Spin's buff is big for Drilbur, since it can now use a SD + Rapid Spik that uses Edgeauake coverage and has no good switch-ins. I don't see it having a lot of traction with so many ghosts out there, but can put some work on after they get removed, as well as compress roles.
Cufant has been seen many times during the first day as a bulky Stealth Rock user with complemented coverage for its weaknesses. Right now I don't see the charm of using it over stuff such as Pawniard and Onix, but I can assure it is going to be extremely dangerous with Grassy Surge Grookey, being able to enter with momentum and exert pressure to opposing Ground-types.
To finish this post, many of the fastest threats have disappeared from the metagame, and the lack of objective for Fire types have reduced thus. Scorbunny does not seem to care as it has many strong moves that will be able to use with Libero that will make it a really strong wallbreaker.
That is all for now, folks.