Metagame [SPOILERS] Scarlet & Violet OU Discussion [BAN LIST POST 626]

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So, i've been pre-building a bunch of OU teams in preparation for Gen 9 going up on Showdown, and I thought that I might as well share them here for people who don't feel like spending 12+ hours building and theorycrafting teams like I did. None of them use mons that won't be available at launch such as Basculegion, so they're ready to play as soon as Showdown gets updated.

Link: https://pastebin.com/mkTA4dym (edit: new link, corrected some mistakes)

They're probably highly unoptimized, but they showcase most of the new toys and strategies, as well as some scuffed experimental sets like the Modest max SpA Cyclizar on some of the teams. Speaking of Cyclizar, it's on nearly every team, enjoy.
 
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I'm not sure about anyone else but I'm really interested in Hail Snow this gen. Chilly Reception from Slowking is gonna be a great way of getting snow abusers onto the field on top of Slowking's amazing longevity with Regen and ability to roadblock a few pretty big threats to Hail like Palafin/Quaquaval (it does lose to a lot of noteworthy Fire-types though which sucks). Being able to pivot out of the incoming Skeledirge or Chi-Yu is really good though and allows you to bring in abusers/secondary checks for free.

Now onto the abusers: Cetitan, Baxcalibur, and Iron Bundle. These three Pokemon are what really make me excited for snow this gen, with their combination of sweeping prowess and breaking power hosting the potential for truly devastating results.

Cetitan has fantastic Ice/Ground/Fighting coverage with STAB Icicle Crash/Ice Spinner, Earthquake, and Superpower, Slush Rush to outspeed damn-near everything and Belly Drum to supercharge its damage output. Needless to say, 1300 attack combined with 538 speed and perfect coverage makes for an incredibly threatening sweeper. Now assuming Abomasnow is gonna be out AV setter getting the BD off could be really fucking annoying especially since Cetitan isn't that bulky all things considered, but if it does get the drum off then it could really fuck shit up. This is probably gonna be the best sweeper on Snow by far simply on account of the fact that it's unarguably one of the most unstoppable cleaning forces imaginable in snow if everything goes right.

Now Baxcalibur isn't really a mon that directly benefits from Snow other than via Ice Body and AV, but I still think it has a few tricks up its sleeve. Its pretty solid bulk in conjuction with AV, Ice Body, and snow's defense boost could make this a genuine threat on these teams with a Dragon Dance set. I'm not sure if Thermal Exchange gives it a Fire immunity like with Flash Fire or if it works like Steam Engine but if it's the former then it would provide snow teams with an infinitely valuable Fire immunity. I think that this thing could even have the choice of a 252/4/252 spread or a bulkier spread a la defensive Dragonite or Volcarona. Only issue for me with this Mon is that is has a really rough matchup into Dragapult if it doesn't get the Dragon Dance off, and even then it risks being Hazed by Toxapex if it can't blow it up immediately. Other scarfers like potentially Iron Valiant are gonna be a pain in the ass too if it can only get one DD. If it gets two DDs though, GG.

Iron Bundle...yeah, this Mon's amazing, Water/Ice dual typing isn't exactly coveted by any stretch of the imagination, but with 124 SpA and 136 Speed, perfectly accurate Blizzard, strong Hydro Pump, and a pivoting tool in Flip Turn, this thing's gonna be pulling shifts for snow teams. Being able to bust through Chi-Yu, Torkoal, Unaware Skeledirge sets up easier sweeps for its teammates, and with Freeze-Dry, or even Tera Electric if teams can fit it, Iron Bundle can apply invaluable pressure on walls like Toxapex, Dondozo, and Corviknight which would otherwise give Cetitan and Baxcalibur second thoughts. Not mention, it serves as a phenomenal revenge killer, given it outruns everything bar Dragapult, being able to force invaluable pressure on Mons like Flutter Mane and Chien-Pao. However, it's probably gonna rely on Chilly Reception, other pivots, or double switches to get onto the field though, but what it provides is so pandemount to Snow's success that I don't think that teams can confidenty leave the builder without it.

Assuming that the combination Cetitan/Baxclibur and Iron Bundle can fry everything with a pulse, then Snow is left with two slot with which to work. Obviously, Abomasnow is going to be forced onto every team on account of its Snow Warning, which is a shame because it's genuinely sub-par at best. I mean, yeah, it can kinda maybe check Meowscarada sometimes and Grounds for Slowking, but aside from that and setting Aurora Veil, it really doesn't have much. Leech Seed's cool and all but I still think Abomasnow's more of a burden than anything else. Other defensive partners for Slowking like Corviknight and its Defog and Great Tusk and its Stealth Rock and Rapid Spin are probably gonna be more consistent, especially assuming that Rocks and Defog, especially the latter, are gonna be mandatory on every single Snow offense team.

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Well, there's my take on Snow in SV OU. Let me know what you think about it!
 
What's your take on Palafin?

I was really scared of the guy until I heard how it changes into its hero form, essentially making it so you have to bring a bad Mon with you and being forced to position it so you can safely switch to get the Hero form. Whilst that is hard enough, you also have to switch in at least twice for the hero form, which in a meta where hazard stacking will be probably big can be really sucky

So in item choices, you either have to
1) Take Boots, which leaves you with a good but still exploitable speed tier and a great but I unboosted attack stat
2) choice lock, which leads you to take hazard damage and forces you to switch even more in case a resist comes up
3) LO, which further chips down on Palafin and still leaves it exploitable to faster mons
4) take lefties or berries, which can give you needed longevity but still leaves your speed and attack unboosted

I think positioning will be extremely important with Palafin and that could make it strategically interesting. I do believe that it could be very likely overwhelming and get banned eventually, especially considering that it gets priority moves which somewhat debunk my above made points about item choice. I can still see a situation where it's somewhat inconsistent due to the form change condition
 
What's your take on Palafin?

I was really scared of the guy until I heard how it changes into its hero form, essentially making it so you have to bring a bad Mon with you and being forced to position it so you can safely switch to get the Hero form. Whilst that is hard enough, you also have to switch in at least twice for the hero form, which in a meta where hazard stacking will be probably big can be really sucky

So in item choices, you either have to
1) Take Boots, which leaves you with a good but still exploitable speed tier and a great but I unboosted attack stat
2) choice lock, which leads you to take hazard damage and forces you to switch even more in case a resist comes up
3) LO, which further chips down on Palafin and still leaves it exploitable to faster mons
4) take lefties or berries, which can give you needed longevity but still leaves your speed and attack unboosted

I think positioning will be extremely important with Palafin and that could make it strategically interesting. I do believe that it could be very likely overwhelming and get banned eventually, especially considering that it gets priority moves which somewhat debunk my above made points about item choice. I can still see a situation where it's somewhat inconsistent due to the form change condition
I suspect a lot of teams will default to leading with choice scarf palafin to get the ability off immediately, that sounds kinda bad to me though. Such an obvious lead means it’s also a very exploitable lead. I think palafin play like you’re describing will be rewarded (though definitely difficult).
 
Not sure if this was already asked, but since Stantler and Ursaring technically have an evolution method programmed in (even if it's a placeholder), should they be considered NFE for the purpose of tiering?

Also, I think we may want to suspect test Girafarig in LC. 80/90/85 offensive stats, and its defenses aren't horrible enough to offset that.
 
What's your take on Palafin?

I was really scared of the guy until I heard how it changes into its hero form, essentially making it so you have to bring a bad Mon with you and being forced to position it so you can safely switch to get the Hero form. Whilst that is hard enough, you also have to switch in at least twice for the hero form, which in a meta where hazard stacking will be probably big can be really sucky

So in item choices, you either have to
1) Take Boots, which leaves you with a good but still exploitable speed tier and a great but I unboosted attack stat
2) choice lock, which leads you to take hazard damage and forces you to switch even more in case a resist comes up
3) LO, which further chips down on Palafin and still leaves it exploitable to faster mons
4) take lefties or berries, which can give you needed longevity but still leaves your speed and attack unboosted

I think positioning will be extremely important with Palafin and that could make it strategically interesting. I do believe that it could be very likely overwhelming and get banned eventually, especially considering that it gets priority moves which somewhat debunk my above made points about item choice. I can still see a situation where it's somewhat inconsistent due to the form change condition
Honestly please forgive me if I'm being stupid but I'd honestly send it out Turn 1 and pivot it out into a much tankier mon so it can make strong hits later. 100 speed is especially important for these kinds of pivoting sets and I expect a lot of teams to run Palafin simply for it, so it'd be very exploitable, however avoiding these risks can get you some great rewards. Could be a pretty big high risk high reward mon.
 
Honestly please forgive me if I'm being stupid but I'd honestly send it out Turn 1 and pivot it out into a much tankier mon so it can make strong hits later. 100 speed is especially important for these kinds of pivoting sets and I expect a lot of teams to run Palafin simply for it, so it'd be very exploitable, however avoiding these risks can get you some great rewards. Could be a pretty big high risk high reward mon.
Yeah. At the very least, Palafin sits at a good Speed tier and can at least get in a Flip Turn hit before changing into its Hero form.
 
I think bringing out Palafin as a lead is 1) very obvious and 2) could put you in a big disadvantage in the hazard game

I do really like the concept behind this Mon. A meta that rewards positioning and resourcing is a meta I like, and a Mon that incidentally rewards these exact two things sounds very fun to me. If it can't stay in OU, I would still like to play it in Ubers

Not sure if this was already asked, but since Stantler and Ursaring technically have an evolution method programmed in (even if it's a placeholder), should they be considered NFE for the purpose of tiering?
I think that if they get enough usage in let's say UU or RU that they'll be officially in these tiers by usage. If they don't get usage like this, they'll proly be just NFE. And even if they have usage to be considered in a proper tier, I think they can still be used in NFE asking as they aren't banned from there
 
So it seems likely from what I’ve seen and others that the ruin abilities are a 3/4x multiplier to apply the debuff on the opponent’s respective stats (or something close to that). How broken do y’all think they are with these numbers in mind?

Chien-pao’s icicle crash is now clearly weaker than gen 8 Weavile’s triple axel hitting 3 times (effectively around 106 bp vs 120 bp) coming off the same attack stat. Of course it can not use knock off either. Now if Chien-pao had gen 8 Weavile’s moveset, it would be insane, but it doesn’t. As is, this shouldn’t be significantly more difficult to check than gen 8 Weavile in my opinion.

Chi-yu might still be broken though. It’s better than something like blacephalon in nearly every way and should still be able to muscle past most checks (not named ttar) with a nasty plot.
 
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What's your take on Palafin?

I was really scared of the guy until I heard how it changes into its hero form, essentially making it so you have to bring a bad Mon with you and being forced to position it so you can safely switch to get the Hero form. Whilst that is hard enough, you also have to switch in at least twice for the hero form, which in a meta where hazard stacking will be probably big can be really sucky

So in item choices, you either have to
1) Take Boots, which leaves you with a good but still exploitable speed tier and a great but I unboosted attack stat
2) choice lock, which leads you to take hazard damage and forces you to switch even more in case a resist comes up
3) LO, which further chips down on Palafin and still leaves it exploitable to faster mons
4) take lefties or berries, which can give you needed longevity but still leaves your speed and attack unboosted

I think positioning will be extremely important with Palafin and that could make it strategically interesting. I do believe that it could be very likely overwhelming and get banned eventually, especially considering that it gets priority moves which somewhat debunk my above made points about item choice. I can still see a situation where it's somewhat inconsistent due to the form change condition
Boots would probably be pretty popular - and it's easy to see why - but the choice of boots or Band would prolly come down to whatever fits with a teams. If I can fit hazard removal, then 100% I'm running Band, but if I can't remove hazards then I'm definitely running Boots.
 
Chien-pao’s icicle crash is now clearly weaker than gen 8 Weavile’s triple axel hitting 3 times (effectively around 106 bp vs 120 bp) coming off the same attack stat. Of course it can not use knock off either. Now if Chien-pao had gen 8 Weavile’s moveset, it would be insane, but it doesn’t. As is, this shouldn’t be significantly more difficult to check than gen 8 Weavile in my opinion.
Some Chien-pao calcs compared to gen 8 Weavile. I calculated Chien-pao’s ability by reducing toxapex’s defense stat from 443 to 332. All of these are against max HP and max defense bold toxapex.

252+ Atk Choice Band Weavile Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Toxapex: 132-156 (43.4 - 51.3%) -- 4.7% chance to 2HKO

252+ Atk Choice Band Chien-pao Crunch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Toxapex: 144-171 (47.3 - 56.2%) -- 82.4% chance to 2HKO

252+ Atk Choice Band Weavile Triple Axel (40 BP) (3 hits) vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Toxapex: 81-99 (26.6 - 32.5%) -- approx. 4HKO

252+ Atk Choice Band Chien-pao Icicle Crash vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Toxapex: 77-91 (25.3 - 29.9%) -- guaranteed 4HKO


That increase in damage on the dark STAB side is definitely hard to wall, especially if crunch drops defense. Doesn’t have the utility of knock off though. Also have to take into account recover pp nerfs and stuff.

Ultimately I’m not sure whether something like this would qualify as broken, but it certainly sounds like an S tier mon in the metagame.
 
So it seems likely from what I’ve seen and others that the ruin abilities are a 3/4x multiplier to apply the debuff on the opponent’s respective stats (or something close to that). How broken do y’all think they are with these numbers in mind?

Chien-pao’s icicle crash is now clearly weaker than gen 8 Weavile’s triple axel hitting 3 times (effectively around 106 bp vs 120 bp) coming off the same attack stat. Of course it can not use knock off either. Now if Chien-pao had gen 8 Weavile’s moveset, it would be insane, but it doesn’t. As is, this shouldn’t be significantly more difficult to check than gen 8 Weavile in my opinion.

Chi-yu might still be broken though. It’s better than something like blacephalon in nearly every way and should still be able to muscle past most checks (not named ttar) with a nasty plot.
I think chien-pao will still be broken, even if it doesn't hit as hard, it's still a weavile thats faster, bulkier, and has recover, it sets up easier, it deals damage easier (comparable damage to weav's taxel with higher accuracy) has access to sacred sword for phenomenal coverage, it's the whole package, it might not be too much for a later meta, but for a limited meta I don't see this thing staying
 
I haven't seen much talk about it, but I think boots will be the undisputed best item in the game, and even better than in gen 8.

With the nerf to recovery moves, regenerator will be even more valued than it already was. At the same time, every mon and its mom gets hazards now (e.g. garchomp, glowking, sneasler etc.). Removal is also scarce: many mons have lost defog, and rapid spin still has all the downsides it had in the previous gen (especially with how strong ghost is looking to be). Spin does have some good distribution, so I can see more teams looking for spinners to replace defoggers.

Knock off? No. Here's a list of (potentially) relevant mons that get knock off:

Pelipper
Salazzle
Alolan Muk
Great Tusk
Iron Treads
Iron Jugulis
Iron Valiant
Wo chien
H-Samurott
Cyclizar
Edit: oops Meowscarada

Yes. That's it (and I was generous with appointing relevance). Keeping hold of your item is looking to be significantly easier this time around, which is a big deal considering that regenerator pivoting will be crucial in trying to deal with all these ridiculous month 1 threats. Yes, the four paradox mons look like especially strong knock users, but the distribution is really important in this case with all the bulky support mons having lost it. I honestly think that Alolan Muk might be suprisingly strong this time around, I'll probably fool around with some AV sets.

Please let me know if you disagree. This was my first post ever, and I don't have much experience, but I'm hyped for gen 9.
 
So it seems likely from what I’ve seen and others that the ruin abilities are a 3/4x multiplier to apply the debuff on the opponent’s respective stats (or something close to that). How broken do y’all think they are with these numbers in mind?

Chien-pao’s icicle crash is now clearly weaker than gen 8 Weavile’s triple axel hitting 3 times (effectively around 106 bp vs 120 bp) coming off the same attack stat. Of course it can not use knock off either. Now if Chien-pao had gen 8 Weavile’s moveset, it would be insane, but it doesn’t. As is, this shouldn’t be significantly more difficult to check than gen 8 Weavile in my opinion.

Chi-yu might still be broken though. It’s better than something like blacephalon in nearly every way and should still be able to muscle past most checks (not named ttar) with a nasty plot.
the ruin abilities being only a 25% debuff would certainly make their calcs a bit worse. i'm not sure if it makes chien-pao okay, like critaquil said it still has an incredible combo of bulk speed and power on top of good coverage with weavile's insane stab combo. chi-yu looks a lot fairer though, still strong but easier to check defensively, and ting-lu doesn't look totally unbreakable like it used to. still too soon to tell but i'm relieved that the debuff isn't by 1.5x or more lol
 
Some Chien-pao calcs compared to gen 8 Weavile. I calculated Chien-pao’s ability by reducing toxapex’s defense stat from 443 to 332. All of these are against max HP and max defense bold toxapex.

252+ Atk Choice Band Weavile Knock Off (97.5 BP) vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Toxapex: 132-156 (43.4 - 51.3%) -- 4.7% chance to 2HKO

252+ Atk Choice Band Chien-pao Crunch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Toxapex: 144-171 (47.3 - 56.2%) -- 82.4% chance to 2HKO

252+ Atk Choice Band Weavile Triple Axel (40 BP) (3 hits) vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Toxapex: 81-99 (26.6 - 32.5%) -- approx. 4HKO

252+ Atk Choice Band Chien-pao Icicle Crash vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Toxapex: 77-91 (25.3 - 29.9%) -- guaranteed 4HKO


That increase in damage on the dark STAB side is definitely hard to wall, especially if crunch drops defense. Doesn’t have the utility of knock off though. Also have to take into account recover pp nerfs and stuff.

Ultimately I’m not sure whether something like this would qualify as broken, but it certainly sounds like an S tier mon in the metagame.
Pao will still hold the advantages as Weav's Knock was only at its strongest when the opposing Mon's item was still held while crunch retains its power as well as spamability vs passives due to its Def drop chances; it can do this with much less risk now as well with the absence of Scald and the cut in Toxic's distribution too.
An Icicle Crash that also has near the power of a significantly less accurate Axel is also greatly beneficial.
We'll need to see the verdict on Shed Tail too, but during the early meta Shed Tail + SD Pao will be a very potent pairing. It'll remain to be seen whether Pao will be broken without ST support as well, but Pao still seems to be a firm upgrade from Weav both as its own mon and due to the circumstances of the new Gen even if not by pure overwhelming power. I still think it's days will be numbered.
 
I haven't seen much talk about it, but I think boots will be the undisputed best item in the game, and even better than in gen 8.

With the nerf to recovery moves, regenerator will be even more valued than it already was. At the same time, every mon and its mom gets hazards now (e.g. garchomp, glowking, sneasler etc.). Removal is also scarce: many mons have lost defog, and rapid spin still has all the downsides it had in the previous gen (especially with how strong ghost is looking to be). Spin does have some good distribution, so I can see more teams looking for spinners to replace defoggers.

Knock off? No. Here's a list of (potentially) relevant mons that get knock off:

Pelipper
Salazzle
Alolan Muk
Great Tusk
Iron Treads
Iron Jugulis
Iron Valiant
Wo chien
H-Samurott
Cyclizar
Edit: oops Meowscarada

Yes. That's it (and I was generous with appointing relevance). Keeping hold of your item is looking to be significantly easier this time around, which is a big deal considering that regenerator pivoting will be crucial in trying to deal with all these ridiculous month 1 threats. Yes, the four paradox mons look like especially strong knock users, but the distribution is really important in this case with all the bulky support mons having lost it. I honestly think that Alolan Muk might be suprisingly strong this time around, I'll probably fool around with some AV sets.

Please let me know if you disagree. This was my first post ever, and I don't have much experience, but I'm hyped for gen 9.
Worth noting that a few of those knock-off users (like Muk-A or Samurott-H) likely won’t be here day one.
 
I think the Devs actually did a Good Thing™ with Palafin, balancing its amazing stats with its ability and its movepool.

I really wants to run Flip Turn, Jet Punch, and Wave Crash, but that would be terrible coverage-wise -- but its only really hard-hitting coverage move is Close Combat, meaning it's easily walled by Slow Twins and Pex (and Amoongus, Water Absorb Quag/Clodsire and others). Oh, and Dragonite doesn't mind any of its attacks either, especially with multiscale up, and loooves having free setup opportunities. It also really wants to lead and/or run Scarf to get off fast Flip Turns in Finizen form to be ready to wreak havoc later, but that makes it easy to take advantage of as a lead, and choice items + terrible coverage options for prediction make it super vulnerable to hazards.

Where this gets nasty is maybe with Teratyping, as Tera-electric Palafin can suddenly dunk on the Bulky Waters, at least.

And, honestly, this is why, when we talk about Terastalyze as being broken, I'm increasingly on board with Tera Blast as being the thing that needs to go. Giving every Pokemon full coverage options off of its strongest attacking stat is just a bit much. Running it means you're at a disadvantage if you choose to terastalyze something else, but Palafin is a perfect example of a case where it doesn't have a lot of other great options without starting to get gimmicky (and boy do I have some Palafin gimmicks brewing up my sleeves). It can run Tera Blast, CC, and two from Flip Turn/Jet Punch/Wave Crash without losing a whole lot.

Without Tera Blast, though, it's strongest tera type options are, what, doubling down on Water? Still can't do jack to the above counters (except for SpDef Slow King in rain). Fighting? Nope. Run Facade with a Normal Teratype in its pocket to abuse stray burns? Not meme-y enough for you, how about Flying with Acrobatics shenanigans? Hey, stop making me divulge my secrets!

If Tera Blast gets banned, I don't think Palafin will even be A-tier, even with Rain likely running amok. It will probably be a powerful cleaner late once its checks are weakened/removed, but it will require good play to do that job given its moveset limitations, the opportunity cost of transforming it, and the power/utility of its checks.
 
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RE: Palafin, looks like I messed up some calcs:
252 Atk Choice Band Adaptability Palafin Wave Crash vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Toxapex in Rain: 183-216 (60.1 - 71%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

Lolololol, good luck world.

FWIW, Rain is really what pushes it over the edge:
252 Atk Choice Band Palafin Wave Crash vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Toxapex in Rain: 137-162 (45 - 53.2%) -- 0.4% chance to 2HKO after Black Sludge recovery
 
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"Wind" moves (the moves that Brambleghast's Wind Rider ability makes it immune to)

Gust
Whirlwind
Blizzard
Icy Wind
Sandstorm
Twister
Heat Wave
Air Cutter
Tailwind
Hurricane
Petal Blizzard
Fairy Wind
Springtide Storm
Bleakwind Storm
Windbolt Storm
Sandsear Storm
 
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