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Smogon Premier League XV - Week 1
- Thread starter Theia
- Start date
- Status
WRAAAAAAAAAAAAWN
Tekeraoi damien the genius, ko tekena
Goodbye & Thanks
Thrown in a fire?
I'll momentarily come out of my hibernation just to say that as always, I'm rooting for the BIGs, but I also want the Tigers to do well for z0m and Gama.
Good luck to all of the teams though!
Good luck to all of the teams though!
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some highlights for me:
SM OU: Charmflash vs Welli0u - excited to see the showman back in sm after a year or so of not playing it. hope you have a good season
BW OU: Fakes vs elodin - im a fan of fakes' take on BW since he tends to take unique risks in the builder that often pay off, elodin also stumbles upon wins despite being pretty unremarkable in-game
SM OU: devin vs Poek - excited to see poek play a tier that isn't oras since he was pretty great at sm when it was the main gen and the manager support here will be great, expecting amazing things here
ORAS OU: Lusa vs CrashinBoomBang - always a pleasure to watch shoob play oras and im a fan of lusa too
DPP OU: mind gaming vs Le Don - i think mind will do well in dpp if he actually puts in the time to learn the tier and build his own teams, and he enjoys the game enough to actually do that so i think contrary to popular belief hes poised for a strong season
SV OU: entrocefalo vs Mimikyu Stardust - entrocefalo was someone i was interested in when i signed up to manage for about 20 minutes because i tend to look at players who are strong in other tiers and see if they'd be willing to play easy to learn tiers like ss/sv so if i were still in, there wouldve definitely been a minor bidding war here. anyway, im expecting entrocefalo to win this game since they seem to have a strong grasp on the fundamentals and with raiders SV support, we'll see a powerful team appear
SV OU: Punny vs kumiko - always excited to see kumi play new gen, especially a fresh meta since they tend to have a very fresh and innovative take on things, as a manager they were only held back by shit players who didnt have the skill to wield teams featuring such creativity but thankfully, they now appear in this tournament as a player. excited to see punny on the other side too who im high on and raiders sv is historically strong so it will either be a really cool game or cheesefest
SS OU: TPP vs Attribute - ive always liked attribute as a player but iirc they havent had much experience in officials aside from wcop, where they had a solid 3-1 record albeit against non-notable opponents. this is the time to prove their mettle against someone stronger. as for the opponent whos been in a sort of slump in sv, tpp returns to his better tier.
SS OU: TDNT vs 3d - two former sharks faceoff. what the prs failed to note about TDNT's 2-0 in ss last spl was that it happened in playoffs against the arguably top 2 ss in the tournament and top 2 ss at the time (or of the year, however you wanna call it). this guy subbed in and beat suapah then gtcha back to back. been a huge fan ever since. tdnt's play is incredibly precise and he just needs a tiny bit of help in prep which he will get from his managers (star is very active in ss) and teammates. 3d has a lot of prove here coming up against a very tough opponent but he already knows that. good luck to both of you and hope yall have good seasons
ORAS OU: Seasons vs xray - modern oras is slowly becoming one of my fav tiers and its bc players like them make really cool teams and in general just have really interesting and individualized approaches to the meta. really looking forward to this one (this also applies to the cbb game and jon game fwiw but i just wanted to mention it here since i particularly like xray and wanted to highlight season's success as a newcomer and 2nd time oras starter).
RBY OU: ABR vs Nails - the dald's take on rby is fresh and invigorating and watching him play makes it feel like hes playing a different tier than the mainers. excited to watch him dominate yet another tier
~
my favorite draft this time around is the raiders but that feels traitorous so i will be rooting for the sharks and wolfpack
SM OU: Charmflash vs Welli0u - excited to see the showman back in sm after a year or so of not playing it. hope you have a good season
BW OU: Fakes vs elodin - im a fan of fakes' take on BW since he tends to take unique risks in the builder that often pay off, elodin also stumbles upon wins despite being pretty unremarkable in-game
SM OU: devin vs Poek - excited to see poek play a tier that isn't oras since he was pretty great at sm when it was the main gen and the manager support here will be great, expecting amazing things here
ORAS OU: Lusa vs CrashinBoomBang - always a pleasure to watch shoob play oras and im a fan of lusa too
DPP OU: mind gaming vs Le Don - i think mind will do well in dpp if he actually puts in the time to learn the tier and build his own teams, and he enjoys the game enough to actually do that so i think contrary to popular belief hes poised for a strong season
SV OU: entrocefalo vs Mimikyu Stardust - entrocefalo was someone i was interested in when i signed up to manage for about 20 minutes because i tend to look at players who are strong in other tiers and see if they'd be willing to play easy to learn tiers like ss/sv so if i were still in, there wouldve definitely been a minor bidding war here. anyway, im expecting entrocefalo to win this game since they seem to have a strong grasp on the fundamentals and with raiders SV support, we'll see a powerful team appear
SV OU: Punny vs kumiko - always excited to see kumi play new gen, especially a fresh meta since they tend to have a very fresh and innovative take on things, as a manager they were only held back by shit players who didnt have the skill to wield teams featuring such creativity but thankfully, they now appear in this tournament as a player. excited to see punny on the other side too who im high on and raiders sv is historically strong so it will either be a really cool game or cheesefest
SS OU: TPP vs Attribute - ive always liked attribute as a player but iirc they havent had much experience in officials aside from wcop, where they had a solid 3-1 record albeit against non-notable opponents. this is the time to prove their mettle against someone stronger. as for the opponent whos been in a sort of slump in sv, tpp returns to his better tier.
SS OU: TDNT vs 3d - two former sharks faceoff. what the prs failed to note about TDNT's 2-0 in ss last spl was that it happened in playoffs against the arguably top 2 ss in the tournament and top 2 ss at the time (or of the year, however you wanna call it). this guy subbed in and beat suapah then gtcha back to back. been a huge fan ever since. tdnt's play is incredibly precise and he just needs a tiny bit of help in prep which he will get from his managers (star is very active in ss) and teammates. 3d has a lot of prove here coming up against a very tough opponent but he already knows that. good luck to both of you and hope yall have good seasons
ORAS OU: Seasons vs xray - modern oras is slowly becoming one of my fav tiers and its bc players like them make really cool teams and in general just have really interesting and individualized approaches to the meta. really looking forward to this one (this also applies to the cbb game and jon game fwiw but i just wanted to mention it here since i particularly like xray and wanted to highlight season's success as a newcomer and 2nd time oras starter).
RBY OU: ABR vs Nails - the dald's take on rby is fresh and invigorating and watching him play makes it feel like hes playing a different tier than the mainers. excited to watch him dominate yet another tier
~
my favorite draft this time around is the raiders but that feels traitorous so i will be rooting for the sharks and wolfpack
Personal Highlights
SM OU: Charmflash vs Welli0u - charm’s grand return? charm’s abysmal return? showman the well? dark liou? time will tell
SV OU: Isza vs CTC - always a treat to see the basedlord in action
SM OU: devin vs Poek - excited to see poek play again
ORAS OU: Lusa vs CrashinBoomBang - cbb is one of the most innovative and entertaining players in any tier, genuinely
BW OU: Dark Eeveon vs SoulWind - major cooking vs the 1 rank, i think sw just wins but would be pleasantly surprised to see otherwise
RBY OU: Kaz vs Heroic Troller - literally same description as above but RBY
SV OU: Punny vs kumiko - punnys good and kumiko is playing again wooo
SM OU: Charmflash vs Welli0u - charm’s grand return? charm’s abysmal return? showman the well? dark liou? time will tell
SV OU: Isza vs CTC - always a treat to see the basedlord in action
SM OU: devin vs Poek - excited to see poek play again
ORAS OU: Lusa vs CrashinBoomBang - cbb is one of the most innovative and entertaining players in any tier, genuinely
BW OU: Dark Eeveon vs SoulWind - major cooking vs the 1 rank, i think sw just wins but would be pleasantly surprised to see otherwise
RBY OU: Kaz vs Heroic Troller - literally same description as above but RBY
SV OU: Punny vs kumiko - punnys good and kumiko is playing again wooo
GO KURUMIES !!!!! Seasons Mimikyu Stardust ZAPHKIELLLL THEM FOR THE FAN CLUB !!!
F Skyrio THE BIGGEST KURUMI HATER !!!!!
F Skyrio THE BIGGEST KURUMI HATER !!!!!
good luck to all my beloved brazilians Eternal Spirit Beraldo Ash KetchumGamer
without forgetting my brother pj , good luck broooo
without forgetting my brother pj , good luck broooo
Lets gooo Tyrants
Personal Highlights:
Charmflash vs Welli0u: Charm is a character and it shows in his teams, they have a lot of uniqueness (sometimes maybe good sometimes maybe shit). Meanwhile Well is one of the most (and only in this tour lol) established player in SM. Great clash.
pj vs Niko: pj has had a very solid year in ORAS, between last SPL and his current occupation at the top of the bracket of the winning pool of the ORAS invitational. Meanwhile, Niko has had kind of a revival this past year, and has particulary shone in the ORAS invitational too. Looking forward a game featuring two players running hot.
baddummy vs SEA: runback of the latest CI finals. Baddummy seems to have unlocked something in himself and put his playing skills to new heights. SEA is one of my personal favorite in ADV. Very good grasp of the gen with a creative to mind. Two very different styles, to make up for a great game hopefully.
Lusa vs CrashinBoomBang: just stanning my bff who always comes in magma hot into those tours.
mind gaming vs Le Don: I'm very curious to see what mind's take on DPP will be, and I ofc am a fan of the player. As for Le Don, this is his great dive on the biggest stage and he has quite unite takes on DPP as well. Should make for a good spectable.
Punny vs kumiko: two known builders with great showings in the past; this time in the newest gen, what's not to love.
ABR vs Nails: Excited to watch one of the GOATs own take to SPL-level RBY against one an extremely established player of the gen. I feel like this match-up embodies the quote "What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object?" given their playstyles and history in the tier.
Charmflash vs Welli0u: Charm is a character and it shows in his teams, they have a lot of uniqueness (sometimes maybe good sometimes maybe shit). Meanwhile Well is one of the most (and only in this tour lol) established player in SM. Great clash.
pj vs Niko: pj has had a very solid year in ORAS, between last SPL and his current occupation at the top of the bracket of the winning pool of the ORAS invitational. Meanwhile, Niko has had kind of a revival this past year, and has particulary shone in the ORAS invitational too. Looking forward a game featuring two players running hot.
baddummy vs SEA: runback of the latest CI finals. Baddummy seems to have unlocked something in himself and put his playing skills to new heights. SEA is one of my personal favorite in ADV. Very good grasp of the gen with a creative to mind. Two very different styles, to make up for a great game hopefully.
Lusa vs CrashinBoomBang: just stanning my bff who always comes in magma hot into those tours.
mind gaming vs Le Don: I'm very curious to see what mind's take on DPP will be, and I ofc am a fan of the player. As for Le Don, this is his great dive on the biggest stage and he has quite unite takes on DPP as well. Should make for a good spectable.
Punny vs kumiko: two known builders with great showings in the past; this time in the newest gen, what's not to love.
ABR vs Nails: Excited to watch one of the GOATs own take to SPL-level RBY against one an extremely established player of the gen. I feel like this match-up embodies the quote "What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object?" given their playstyles and history in the tier.
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1 highlight from each series:
BW OU: Fakes vs elodin -- elodin I rate super highly, p sure I ranked him 2 or 3. His aggression timing is great and his team choices are always great and I think he'll force fakes to get out of his HO comfort zone. Fakes on form is sick though. Is he on form? Will he use HO and get cteamed? Will he show a new side of himself on a different archetype? Steamy steamer for sure, and this is coming from someone who finds bw more boring than most tiers
SV OU: mncmt vs Rubyblood -- I've had very minor beef with mncmt in the past but I do firmly believe he is rly good at the game. He sees team archetypes like I do imo where the cores won't always conform to standard but he ends up with a level of comfort playing them that elevates them to that standard viability level. Ruby had a hot 2023 and is tryna prove he's in that tier 1, rather than just challenging other tier 1s. His play shows glimpses of that at times. I expect more of a team pick that's gonna end up in the sample teams thread 2 weeks from now -- so I see a style clash between the 2. Also both haxed me in scl as an aside I will never drop this.
SV OU: Floss vs Trosko -- generally the predicts have these games all going one way in our series, with the main 2 flip-flops being this and the dpp game. Troskos an all time favorite player of mine, love the way he thinks about the game from anytime we talk about it -- especially now that we chat vgc a lot. Floss is no slouch, 6-3 in scl is a good record and his particular sv ou foundation is probably more knowledgeable rn. I felt he was dependable for his team choices the scl prior when we teamed together. So I see it as a battle of fundamentals vs knowledge lowkey, which makes for a fun narrative.
GSC OU: Chiles Habaneros vs ggggd -- another fun narrative, this game can boil down to "passion vs talent". Pablo's genuinely one of the best players around, he's so smart around his aggression and never walks into a game to get rolled. That being said, i dont know how he feels about gsc itself. The vibes I got were that he'd be content with it but gscing 9 weeks and being seen as a mainer really weren't the goals this season. Chiles to me is who I think when I think of new players tryna push gsc forward. His passion for the tier is lowkey absurd, and I know he's working really hard behind the scenes to get better and be that spl staple in his favorite tier. I'm not a weeb but this match is gaara vs rock lee as fuck
DPP OU: Void vs Laurel -- im in a lot of pain irl rn so keepin it brief but very similar to what I said above. Void is just so good at mons when the efforts there. For laurel the effort is there and it's on him to show the skill is too.
BW OU: Fakes vs elodin -- elodin I rate super highly, p sure I ranked him 2 or 3. His aggression timing is great and his team choices are always great and I think he'll force fakes to get out of his HO comfort zone. Fakes on form is sick though. Is he on form? Will he use HO and get cteamed? Will he show a new side of himself on a different archetype? Steamy steamer for sure, and this is coming from someone who finds bw more boring than most tiers
SV OU: mncmt vs Rubyblood -- I've had very minor beef with mncmt in the past but I do firmly believe he is rly good at the game. He sees team archetypes like I do imo where the cores won't always conform to standard but he ends up with a level of comfort playing them that elevates them to that standard viability level. Ruby had a hot 2023 and is tryna prove he's in that tier 1, rather than just challenging other tier 1s. His play shows glimpses of that at times. I expect more of a team pick that's gonna end up in the sample teams thread 2 weeks from now -- so I see a style clash between the 2. Also both haxed me in scl as an aside I will never drop this.
SV OU: Floss vs Trosko -- generally the predicts have these games all going one way in our series, with the main 2 flip-flops being this and the dpp game. Troskos an all time favorite player of mine, love the way he thinks about the game from anytime we talk about it -- especially now that we chat vgc a lot. Floss is no slouch, 6-3 in scl is a good record and his particular sv ou foundation is probably more knowledgeable rn. I felt he was dependable for his team choices the scl prior when we teamed together. So I see it as a battle of fundamentals vs knowledge lowkey, which makes for a fun narrative.
GSC OU: Chiles Habaneros vs ggggd -- another fun narrative, this game can boil down to "passion vs talent". Pablo's genuinely one of the best players around, he's so smart around his aggression and never walks into a game to get rolled. That being said, i dont know how he feels about gsc itself. The vibes I got were that he'd be content with it but gscing 9 weeks and being seen as a mainer really weren't the goals this season. Chiles to me is who I think when I think of new players tryna push gsc forward. His passion for the tier is lowkey absurd, and I know he's working really hard behind the scenes to get better and be that spl staple in his favorite tier. I'm not a weeb but this match is gaara vs rock lee as fuck
DPP OU: Void vs Laurel -- im in a lot of pain irl rn so keepin it brief but very similar to what I said above. Void is just so good at mons when the efforts there. For laurel the effort is there and it's on him to show the skill is too.
brasil neles pora TDNT Ash KetchumGamer elodin Luigi Eternal Spirit mncmt Lusa Beraldo @ggggdpablokkkkkkk ABR
- hs
I am truly excited to see Devin become a starter in gen 7 sm ou. This man has always been an unpolished diamond and I do believe this SPL he will finally shine like the way I know he can. GL Devin! <3
Good luck to comp, hellom, akali, mada, zokuru, Xrn, Mimi, Devin, isza and well I guess susciety. Ggs only!!! (Spooners dub)
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Playing 10pm GMT-5 on Sunday, hf. Scrambled thoughts on some match-ups I am excited by below
SV OU: oldspicemike vs Kushalos
Kushalos has been super efficient in a limited sample of OU this generation; his WCoP was good and a brief SCL stint showed more competency. Mike looked amazing through most of SCL though and he has the same supporting backbone -- xavgb -- that he had during SCL. I really think a continuation of his strong showing from SCL is in order due to how sustainable it looked. He picked good teams, avoided gamebreaking errors, timed his Tera well routinely, and stayed very current with the metagame. Can Kushalos exhibit all of these things as well? Sure, he can. And if he does, his skill ceiling projects to be higher given his track record, but I do need a bit more convincing and I think this is a tough ask for him W1. I pretty much think Mike projects to be a fringe SV1 who can win 6 or so games in this pool (maybe more if he continues to ascend) while Kushalos is a good starting option who will do better as the season goes on and he continues to adjust to being a full-time OUer. Lean Mike for sure, but great match-up.
ORAS OU: pj vs Niko
pj routinely looks awesome in ORAS and I really loved his progression last season. He also has done well individually and I think has a good shot of going positive, taking games off of the top-heavy part of the pool, living up the his retain value, etc. The barrier here is that I think Niko is more experiencedat playing the extremes of the metagame, which makes him a pain-in-the-ass to prepare for. A lot of this could boil down to team selection and early game lines because of this. Honestly, you could tell me Niko brings just about anything -- including archetypes/Pokemon I have yet to even see surface in ORAS -- and I would not be too shocked. pj showed good range last year, even rocking a really cool HO in playoffs last year, but I do think this is going to be an awkward opponent for anyone to prepare for going into W1. I definitely see Niko as the more volatile of the two, but his ceiling is super high and I find players like this tend to do really well early in tournaments, even coming out a step or two ahead in terms of metagaming. Maybe less applicable to ORAS than a CG tier, but honestly ORAS is still revolving as time goes, so I am going to stick with my gut despite really liking pj's prospects this season.
SV OU: mncmt vs Rubyblood
I would love to be proven wrong, but the vibes took a hit with Rubyblood after his awsome SCL start. Feels like he was on top of the world with an X-0 or x-1 record deep into the regular season, but then he got unfortunate in a game or two and things got cloudy. I even thought he was going to prefer GSC before he ended up in SV. Maybe he just got busy at the wrong time -- I do not know and to assume anything would be unfair, so I am not going to try and connect the dots -- but the same motivation/success did not quite resonate after the start. Just hope that we can see him return to peak form as Ruby was a great addition to the player pool for a couple of months. The unfortunate thing is that mncmt is a top player around, so this is a tough draw to start for Rubyblood or really anyone to start things off. mncmt's 9-0 last SPL was no joke, his continued sheet success is not a fluke, and, while he is quiet and less of a firsthand builder than some others at times, he clearly is a winning player. Dude is going to generate awesome value for his retain and I see another positive season, so going to bold him for now. High ceiling for Rubyblood if he returns to SCL form, but need to see more proven before picking him here.
DPP OU: Pideous vs Dridri457
It is always cool when two newcomers to the SPL scene face-off. Pideous is the type of dude where every DPP game of his I ever see, it feels like he wins -- they could be friendlies, unofficial tours, invittionals, etc., but he always wins. Maybe it is just my timing, but I really like how he projects to do this season. Not as familiar with Dridri457, but I am sure the Tyrants scouted out a good value pick because it is in their DNA to do so. Curious to see how that pans out, but gonna side with the more proven entity here in a game I will be sure to tune-in for.
SV OU: Punny vs kumiko
Seeing TDK take on a new format/generation to him is always a treat. He has a seemingly endless supply of fun concepts to try and apply, so I always root for that to happen. Tough draw here as I rank Punny as one of the most dominant players on the entire site and while his SV is not much more special than his other generations, that does not really matter given how adaptable he is, how often he performs well, and how much support he has with the Raiders. Highlight of the week potential here though.
BW OU: Jisoo vs watashi
watashi always uses cool teams in BW. I think preparing for him at the start of a season before you have that profile of "he just used X and I just used X" where you can make some inferences and budget around certain things makes this particularly challenging for Jisoo. Maybe that is just how my peabrain works and a steady diet of solid metagame teams is enough to fend Jisoo off from threats like last season, but I do think there's some potential for stylistic advantage here. Probably an upset pick here given how well Jisoo did last year and the support he has with Raiza, who is a top player in BW alongside Jisoo, but I think watashi is going to do well in a BW field. Jisoo I expect to go positive still, but matching 9 wins from last year is hard and I sorta expect him to trade games with the top 4-5 other players while farming the bottom few. Knowing my track record though, Jisoo will win here and end up with exactly 9 wins this season, so congrats on that Raiders LOL
SV OU: Fogbound Lake vs Laroxyl
I think this SPL will be a huge win for lower tier mainstays pivoting into OU to capitalize on the extra slots. Laroxyl, Kushalos, pdt, Beraldo, Floss, entrofacelo, etc. all have golden opportunities here. Laroxyl in particular is a proven winner at this point; 8 wins in SCL is no joke regardless of tiers. Overall, the dude played amazing Pokemon in the second half of 2023 and I was super impressed by pretty much all of his games. It felt like there was strong reasoning behind each of his moves, even in tiers I did not fully comprehend like LC. I know OU was only a couple of SCL games, but Isza was good that tour and Ruby was great most of that tour, so I do assign some weight to that 2-0 when predicting an upset her. Obvioiusly Fogbound is the real deal though -- he was among the most efficient winners in OU across all of WCoP and SCL, so that deserves even more recognition. I do think a new metagame without his support from the last two campaigns could prove to have a bit of a learning curve for Fogbound, making earlier weeks harder to adapt, but also I think if you are so good at the game that you can win that many games, finding the right team will become evident to him soon enough. Close one given all of this, but for whatever reason my gut says Laroxyl even if track record in OU leans Fogbound, so we'll see. I think both are phenomenal overall and am excited to see teams here either way.
RBY OU: ABR vs Nails
ABR owned late 2023 RBY whenever he played. His consistency impressed me and he obviously is an all-time player. I think some people are writing off Nails due to other strong RBY players coming in with more recency or motivaiton right now, but he is still a literal RBY legend who always finds a way to put up numbers, so I think that despite ABR likely being a top-end player in the pool, Nails will probably get to 5 wins or so. This just will be a hard one for him or anyone to get if ABR is motivated -- feels like he has to be to justify the pricetag from Star, so my expectation is a good showing. Very cool matchup either way.
SV OU: oldspicemike vs Kushalos
Kushalos has been super efficient in a limited sample of OU this generation; his WCoP was good and a brief SCL stint showed more competency. Mike looked amazing through most of SCL though and he has the same supporting backbone -- xavgb -- that he had during SCL. I really think a continuation of his strong showing from SCL is in order due to how sustainable it looked. He picked good teams, avoided gamebreaking errors, timed his Tera well routinely, and stayed very current with the metagame. Can Kushalos exhibit all of these things as well? Sure, he can. And if he does, his skill ceiling projects to be higher given his track record, but I do need a bit more convincing and I think this is a tough ask for him W1. I pretty much think Mike projects to be a fringe SV1 who can win 6 or so games in this pool (maybe more if he continues to ascend) while Kushalos is a good starting option who will do better as the season goes on and he continues to adjust to being a full-time OUer. Lean Mike for sure, but great match-up.
ORAS OU: pj vs Niko
pj routinely looks awesome in ORAS and I really loved his progression last season. He also has done well individually and I think has a good shot of going positive, taking games off of the top-heavy part of the pool, living up the his retain value, etc. The barrier here is that I think Niko is more experiencedat playing the extremes of the metagame, which makes him a pain-in-the-ass to prepare for. A lot of this could boil down to team selection and early game lines because of this. Honestly, you could tell me Niko brings just about anything -- including archetypes/Pokemon I have yet to even see surface in ORAS -- and I would not be too shocked. pj showed good range last year, even rocking a really cool HO in playoffs last year, but I do think this is going to be an awkward opponent for anyone to prepare for going into W1. I definitely see Niko as the more volatile of the two, but his ceiling is super high and I find players like this tend to do really well early in tournaments, even coming out a step or two ahead in terms of metagaming. Maybe less applicable to ORAS than a CG tier, but honestly ORAS is still revolving as time goes, so I am going to stick with my gut despite really liking pj's prospects this season.
SV OU: mncmt vs Rubyblood
I would love to be proven wrong, but the vibes took a hit with Rubyblood after his awsome SCL start. Feels like he was on top of the world with an X-0 or x-1 record deep into the regular season, but then he got unfortunate in a game or two and things got cloudy. I even thought he was going to prefer GSC before he ended up in SV. Maybe he just got busy at the wrong time -- I do not know and to assume anything would be unfair, so I am not going to try and connect the dots -- but the same motivation/success did not quite resonate after the start. Just hope that we can see him return to peak form as Ruby was a great addition to the player pool for a couple of months. The unfortunate thing is that mncmt is a top player around, so this is a tough draw to start for Rubyblood or really anyone to start things off. mncmt's 9-0 last SPL was no joke, his continued sheet success is not a fluke, and, while he is quiet and less of a firsthand builder than some others at times, he clearly is a winning player. Dude is going to generate awesome value for his retain and I see another positive season, so going to bold him for now. High ceiling for Rubyblood if he returns to SCL form, but need to see more proven before picking him here.
DPP OU: Pideous vs Dridri457
It is always cool when two newcomers to the SPL scene face-off. Pideous is the type of dude where every DPP game of his I ever see, it feels like he wins -- they could be friendlies, unofficial tours, invittionals, etc., but he always wins. Maybe it is just my timing, but I really like how he projects to do this season. Not as familiar with Dridri457, but I am sure the Tyrants scouted out a good value pick because it is in their DNA to do so. Curious to see how that pans out, but gonna side with the more proven entity here in a game I will be sure to tune-in for.
SV OU: Punny vs kumiko
Seeing TDK take on a new format/generation to him is always a treat. He has a seemingly endless supply of fun concepts to try and apply, so I always root for that to happen. Tough draw here as I rank Punny as one of the most dominant players on the entire site and while his SV is not much more special than his other generations, that does not really matter given how adaptable he is, how often he performs well, and how much support he has with the Raiders. Highlight of the week potential here though.
BW OU: Jisoo vs watashi
watashi always uses cool teams in BW. I think preparing for him at the start of a season before you have that profile of "he just used X and I just used X" where you can make some inferences and budget around certain things makes this particularly challenging for Jisoo. Maybe that is just how my peabrain works and a steady diet of solid metagame teams is enough to fend Jisoo off from threats like last season, but I do think there's some potential for stylistic advantage here. Probably an upset pick here given how well Jisoo did last year and the support he has with Raiza, who is a top player in BW alongside Jisoo, but I think watashi is going to do well in a BW field. Jisoo I expect to go positive still, but matching 9 wins from last year is hard and I sorta expect him to trade games with the top 4-5 other players while farming the bottom few. Knowing my track record though, Jisoo will win here and end up with exactly 9 wins this season, so congrats on that Raiders LOL
SV OU: Fogbound Lake vs Laroxyl
I think this SPL will be a huge win for lower tier mainstays pivoting into OU to capitalize on the extra slots. Laroxyl, Kushalos, pdt, Beraldo, Floss, entrofacelo, etc. all have golden opportunities here. Laroxyl in particular is a proven winner at this point; 8 wins in SCL is no joke regardless of tiers. Overall, the dude played amazing Pokemon in the second half of 2023 and I was super impressed by pretty much all of his games. It felt like there was strong reasoning behind each of his moves, even in tiers I did not fully comprehend like LC. I know OU was only a couple of SCL games, but Isza was good that tour and Ruby was great most of that tour, so I do assign some weight to that 2-0 when predicting an upset her. Obvioiusly Fogbound is the real deal though -- he was among the most efficient winners in OU across all of WCoP and SCL, so that deserves even more recognition. I do think a new metagame without his support from the last two campaigns could prove to have a bit of a learning curve for Fogbound, making earlier weeks harder to adapt, but also I think if you are so good at the game that you can win that many games, finding the right team will become evident to him soon enough. Close one given all of this, but for whatever reason my gut says Laroxyl even if track record in OU leans Fogbound, so we'll see. I think both are phenomenal overall and am excited to see teams here either way.
RBY OU: ABR vs Nails
ABR owned late 2023 RBY whenever he played. His consistency impressed me and he obviously is an all-time player. I think some people are writing off Nails due to other strong RBY players coming in with more recency or motivaiton right now, but he is still a literal RBY legend who always finds a way to put up numbers, so I think that despite ABR likely being a top-end player in the pool, Nails will probably get to 5 wins or so. This just will be a hard one for him or anyone to get if ABR is motivated -- feels like he has to be to justify the pricetag from Star, so my expectation is a good showing. Very cool matchup either way.
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