Finally got shiny growlithe! egg number 238. i will finish this batch then go on to finding shiny phantump :3
first batch: nothing
second: shiny at 238
first batch: nothing
second: shiny at 238
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Shiny Charm and Masuda Method
- Thread starter Wichu
- Start date
^-^ got a Shiny Pumpkaboo within the 200 batch, pretty sure he was egg 180 ish. Edit post 668.
Updated post #630 and spreadsheet.
Honestly it should of been made private and controlled by a handful of people it's not that hard to send a PM to one of the "Managers" if there's a few trusted managers with access to it.
I don't understand why people do these kinds of things... I'm not even on the list.
All results right now the only ones we can trust are the ones in this thread sadly...
So what do we think the real shiny rate most likely is now then? Or are all results on the spreadsheet now BS?
I'm just a random I only view the threads results I rarely even look at the sheet
It's hard to say however not all the results are the sheet are fake however I'll keep contributing as long as this project is going and even after the thread ends I'll still keep track of my eggs.
Been pretty busy past few days but I can finally start making more batches tonight woo dive ball anorith! would be sweet landing Swift Swim ;)
I've MM'd about 1300 eggs without a shiny at this point. One of my parents isn't Kalos bred, so I'm wondering if the hexagon affects shiny rate, because as it stands I've failed a 95% chance to get a shiny.
Well think about it this way. If the chance of getting a shiny is 1:437 as the sheet says... you doing 1300 eggs is like doing 437 three times.
Essentially, its the same thing as if you flipped a coin 3 times and got tails each time. Its not really that outrageous... just bad luck.
Likewise, the chances that you would hatch that many without a shiny are about 12.5%.
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updated post #485 still waiting for my shiny mareep <i update my post daily min of 1 box a day>
<2668 eggs since my last shiny i hope i do get 8 shinies if i reach 4096>
<2668 eggs since my last shiny i hope i do get 8 shinies if i reach 4096>
Actually the probability of at least one success in a certain number of tries with unchanging odds of 1/450 (general estimate) is 1-(1-1/450)^1300, which comes out at around 95%. Without shiny charm it would be around 67%, which is far more consistent with my MM attempts in the past without the shiny charm, and it would make sense that I wouldn't have a shiny yet because there's a chunky 33% chance of failure. Due to the large number of people on the spreadsheet who have reported shinies frequently enough for the 1/450 to be accurate, me being a large outlier on that field of data raises my suspicions that non-kalos parents could affect the shiny rate.
I've updated my post (#161) with a few more shinies over the last day or so.
That could be true, but I think there's a whole lot of people who are using 6Iv dittos... pretty much none of those are from kalos.
Well I've used a 6 IV ditto on 2 pokemon so far and got three shinies I'll probably have a shiny drought with anorith though as my luck with kricketot was pretty... absurd lol
Just change the editing permissions so that only specific users can make changes. I'm willing work with a few others to keep the spreadsheet updated with other users' posts, although the more people who verify with their email address (and make their own changes), the better.
Thought I'd give this a shot since I've just got the shiny charm. :D
Breeding an english Lucario (5IV) and a Japanese Ditto, willing to hatch 500 eggs and will update every 50 eggs!
Batch 1 (0-50): Nope!
Batch 2 (51-100): Nope!
Batch 3 (101-150): Nope!
Batch 4 (151-200): Nope! (Switched Lucario out with a Flabebe at around 180)
Batch 5 (201-250): Nope!
Batch 6 (251-300): Nope!
Batch 7 (301-350): Nope! (Giving Onixs a try now :P)
Batch 8 (351-400): Nope!
Batch 9 (401-450): Nope!
Batch 10 (451-500): In progress~
Breeding an english Lucario (5IV) and a Japanese Ditto, willing to hatch 500 eggs and will update every 50 eggs!
Batch 1 (0-50): Nope!
Batch 2 (51-100): Nope!
Batch 3 (101-150): Nope!
Batch 4 (151-200): Nope! (Switched Lucario out with a Flabebe at around 180)
Batch 5 (201-250): Nope!
Batch 6 (251-300): Nope!
Batch 7 (301-350): Nope! (Giving Onixs a try now :P)
Batch 8 (351-400): Nope!
Batch 9 (401-450): Nope!
Batch 10 (451-500): In progress~
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I got the shiny charm for a while so I help I hatch 600 and update every 100 eggs.
JPN treecko female ENG treecko male(both have 5 ivs)
Batch 1 (1-100) : no shiny
Batch 2 (101-200) : no shiny
Batch 3 (201-300) : no shiny
Batch 4 (301-400): in progress
JPN treecko female ENG treecko male(both have 5 ivs)
Batch 1 (1-100) : no shiny
Batch 2 (101-200) : no shiny
Batch 3 (201-300) : no shiny
Batch 4 (301-400): in progress
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First batch of with a Japanese Eevee and a French Ditto done.
Batch 1 (1-100): 1 shiny.
Shooting for a shiny Togekiss next. Using an American Togekiss and a French Ditto.
Batch 1 (1-100): 1 shiny.
Shooting for a shiny Togekiss next. Using an American Togekiss and a French Ditto.
Updated post #630 and spreadsheet, finished my goal of 500 eggs. I may do more in the future.
I'm using a Japanese 6 IV ditto not from Kalos- I had a bad start (only 1 in my first batch of 1,000) I hatched four in my next 1,300 and I'm now right in line with the average
I have a question, I would like to contribute to this thread but I have a rebuttal for one of the concerns presented in one of the earlier posts.
Are we not recording data for everyone and not just personal chances? Yes, if someone stopped at a shiny, it would present a statistical bias but only for that individual, not the overall sample. For example, one person hatches a shiny at 400 eggs and another hatches one at 600 eggs, that would be 2 shinies per 1,000 eggs (or 1/500) despite the personal chances being radically different.
I don't want to pledge any particular amount, just hatching eggs of a particular species until I get a shiny. Sorry if my theory is incorrect, I'd like to say that my last statistics class was taught in a manner that did not work for me :P
Are we not recording data for everyone and not just personal chances? Yes, if someone stopped at a shiny, it would present a statistical bias but only for that individual, not the overall sample. For example, one person hatches a shiny at 400 eggs and another hatches one at 600 eggs, that would be 2 shinies per 1,000 eggs (or 1/500) despite the personal chances being radically different.
I don't want to pledge any particular amount, just hatching eggs of a particular species until I get a shiny. Sorry if my theory is incorrect, I'd like to say that my last statistics class was taught in a manner that did not work for me :P
Ok, I temp locked it, for now at least. The edits are really pissing me off now.
And I reopened it for viewing.
Ok, guess It wasn't for that long. I fixed up the sheet, and made a copy of it for the 100k data (assuming it's still usable). I guess I'll go and open up the sheet for editing again.
Here's the link to the 100K statistics (It went a little over):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AsbxGRX9WMCldHFJSTFGWkJ1RzZ0ZkExUy0zMEVxQmc&usp=sharing
And I reopened it for viewing.
Ok, guess It wasn't for that long. I fixed up the sheet, and made a copy of it for the 100k data (assuming it's still usable). I guess I'll go and open up the sheet for editing again.
Here's the link to the 100K statistics (It went a little over):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AsbxGRX9WMCldHFJSTFGWkJ1RzZ0ZkExUy0zMEVxQmc&usp=sharing
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Finished my second batch.
Jap Eevee and Fre Ditto (1-100): 1
USA Togekiss and Fre Ditto (101-200): 0
Working on third now. I can't update the spreadsheet, so I'll leave this here.
Jap Eevee and Fre Ditto (1-100): 1
USA Togekiss and Fre Ditto (101-200): 0
Working on third now. I can't update the spreadsheet, so I'll leave this here.
Still breeding my 6Iv ditto with my 6Iv eevee. Results thus far:
1~100: Nothing
101~200: Nothing
201~300: Nothing
301~400: Nothing
401~500: Nothing
501~600: Nothing
601~700: Nothing
701~800: Nothing
801~900: Nothing
901~1000: In Progress
1~100: Nothing
101~200: Nothing
201~300: Nothing
301~400: Nothing
401~500: Nothing
501~600: Nothing
601~700: Nothing
701~800: Nothing
801~900: Nothing
901~1000: In Progress
Same for me. =[
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