Tournament RU Snake Draft: Semifinals

[Denial]

Standings

The Nav Fan Nidoqueens (5) vs The Dreamless Drampas (1)

SS: Pepeduce vs Sensei Axew
SS: B̴̧̢͙̮͔̯̖̜̉̕͜ù̴̢̺̝̂͌g̷̨̡̛͚͎̲̰̰̀̑͗̈́̎̇̓͜ͅz̷̛͓͊̈́̀̀̾͝ḯ̵͚̥̼͎̟͖͉́̽͑̄̐͗͑͆n̴̛̺̘͎̫̯̻͓͙̜̟̠͔͍̍̊̌̓͜͝a̵̡̛̙̠͚͙̯̲͔͕̼̘̣̘͈̫͌̆͒̀̒́͑́̄̍́͛͝ṭ̵̡͒̀̈́̆̀͝͝ȏ̶̻̞̬̘̯̼̹̳̣̺̓̓͑̋͑̆̿͆̚ŗ̷̧͓̲͓̘͈̠͔̮̼̝͙̓̑ vs robjr
SS: TonyFlygon vs mncmt (dead game)
SS: Luthier vs EviGaro
SM: lighthouses vs Finchinator
SM: Jaajgko vs Gondra
ORAS: Santu vs Pinboim3 (dead game)
BW: byronthewellwell vs MZ

The Solid Steelixes (2) vs The S-Rank Vileplumes (6)

SS: gorex vs jake
SS: Garay oak vs Bouff
SS: Spl4sh vs Yggdrasil60
SS: Averardo vs tko
SM: Yay vs rozes
SM: DurzaOffTopic vs Ark
ORAS: TSR vs hs Chaitanya
BW: The Leprechaun vs trace

The deadline is Sunday, July 26, at 12:00 AM GMT -5 (Central Daylight Time).​

 

[Finchinator]

SS: B̴̧̢͙̮͔̯̖̜̉̕͜ù̴̢̺̝̂͌g̷̨̡̛͚͎̲̰̰̀̑͗̈́̎̇̓͜ͅz̷̛͓͊̈́̀̀̾͝ḯ̵͚̥̼͎̟͖͉́̽͑̄̐͗͑͆n̴̛̺̘͎̫̯̻͓͙̜̟̠͔͍̍̊̌̓͜͝a̵̡̛̙̠͚͙̯̲͔͕̼̘̣̘͈̫͌̆͒̀̒́͑́̄̍́͛͝ṭ̵̡͒̀̈́̆̀͝͝ȏ̶̻̞̬̘̯̼̹̳̣̺̓̓͑̋͑̆̿͆̚ŗ̷̧͓̲͓̘͈̠͔̮̼̝͙̓̑ vs robjr

 

[Yay]

gl everyone

frogs legacy present on all teams

 

[odr]

Rooting for the Nav fans to win it all

 

[KW]

BW: byronthewellwell vs MZ

an interesting one. byronthewellwell has remained remarkably consistent in his team choices, choosing on all but one week to bring the sort of fat mismatched cores populated by alomomola, gothorita, and roselia that comprise bw ru's approximation of a defensive build. his play has been solid, generally adapting in most games to confront the exigencies of bw's variance yielding machine, although his choice of team style constrains the agency he has been able to wield in terms of controlling the game pace. MZ of the other hand has appeared less in this season, and has generally opted for more offensively styled archetypes. His games have shown him displaying competence on a turn by turn basis, though he seems to have trouble composing his line of play towards win conditions in the long game, resulting in what thus far can only be deemed a mediocre display of bw. I think if MZ chooses to prioritize his energies in terms of optimizing his building it will probably yield above average dividends for him, but based on the results of the season and watching both players play, byronthewellwell looks more comfortable in the tier and I predict him to take it.

BW: The Leprechaun vs trace

The Leprechaun has been pretty consistent in their play all season, but even more so in their approach to building. Lep's proclivity towards generating the same team structures is widely known, and yet he seems to prevent it from utterly hindering him. I think to call Lep's play solid would undermine credit towards what has been in fact fairly consistent and yet smart play from him throughout the season. Trace on the other hand is proven worthy of their namesake, scarcely seen. Traces builds tend to be more offensive and varied than that of Leps. Curiously this dynamic mimics that of the prior game, where one player is to be found using a predictable, consistent, more defensive playstyle, while the other opts for more varied offensive takes. Like the former game, I am going to predict in favor of the player who I feel is most comfortable and versed dealing with the meta as a whole, although taking note of the fact that their preferences expose vulnerabilities to be taken advantage of with sufficient preparation.

 

[Feliburn]

The Nav Fan Nidoqueens (4) vs The Dreamless Drampas (4)

SS: Pepeduce vs Sensei Axew: Pepeduce is way more experienced and has been having a better tour overall, so I'm p sure he's gonna take this one even tho Sensei Axew has been picking it up the last 2 weeks.
SS: Bugzinator vs robjr: V close game in terms of overall playing skill but robs more familiar with the tier as seen from his tour performance and recent seasonal run, should b v close.
SS: TonyFlygon vs mncmt: Rlly hard for me to predict this one, I'm gonna go with Tony as I've seen more from him overall despite taking a break from this tour the last 3 weeks.
SS: Luthier vs EviGaro: Evi kinda had a rough start in BW but as soon as she swapped to the less hax reliant tier she started picking up dubs, whereas Luth has been on and off on his team options in the tour but still v solid play. Feel like Evi's usual outside the box thinking in the builder will give her a big advantage over Luth.
SM: lighthouses vs Finchinator: Bolding Finch just cause he has the better record currently despite some of Diogo's Ls coming from v unfortunate RNG. In all reality it could go to either one cause they both have v solid gameplans during games but I think Finch is riding more momentum rn.
SM: Jaajgko vs Gondra: Gondra is a better player overall, unfamiliar with Jaajgko in general but Gondra is more solid as a general SM player.
ORAS: Santu vs Pinboim3: Santu knows how to play the fat ORAS teams v good so it's going to be hard for a non-seasoned player like Pinboim to be able to outplay and break Santu.
BW: byronthewellwell vs MZ: Byron's general play seems more solid than MZ so I'll give it to him.

The Solid Steelixes (4) vs The S-Rank Vileplumes (4)

SS: gorex vs jake: I feel like this game comes down to how familair jake is with gen 8 RU cause I'm sure he has a better playing ability than gorex but gorex could bring some wack and get an easy matchup since it's hard to prep for everything in this gen, gonna give it to jake tho but I wouldn't be surprised if the outcome is different.
SS: Garay oak vs Bouff: Rating games like this one is p hard, I'm gonna go with Garay just cause his play has been more solid than Bouff lately but Bouff is more than capable to take this one, probs my fav match of the week.
SS: Spl4sh vs Yggdrasil60: Yggdrasil started this tour p strong but has been kind of on a slump lately, however spl4sh hasn't had enough spotlight to prove he can take this one so I'm gonna go for the french techs.
SS: Averardo vs tko: Averardo is a v capable player, but in SM RU, he has shown signs of struggling to figure out the new generation of Rarely Used (not in the current meta but that's all I have going). tko however isn't much of a big gen 8 ru player either so it'll come down to whatever madness tko comes up with vs whatever madness ave comes up with, gonna go with the more proven mainer tho.
SM: Yay vs rozes: Rlly tough call, I know Yay is p good main and he won the gen 8 ru tour of the gen but in SM I feel like rozes should be able to take it just based on play level, since SM is a more balanced and established tier than SS, could go either way tho.
SM: DurzaOffTopic vs Ark: OML Durza unleashed (ignore the previous dead games), I feel like durza just knows the tier more than ark so he should be able to take it.
ORAS: TSR vs Chaitanya: Dang this game is p legit close af, TSR is chait's one L in the tour and also has a v solid record, but chait has the better record so maybe that will give him more confidence. I'd be lying if I said I've been paying close attention to the ORAS games so I'm gonna go with my gut here on chait.
BW: The Leprechaun vs trace: Lep should be able to take it as he's a more solid and experienced BW player, can never count trace out tho.

Bunch of heat matches so gl friends and tko/averardo

 

[col49]

SS: gorex vs jake - I favour jake slightly here, as he is by contrast the more tenured player, but gorex has been, for lack of a better way to put it, very good at identifying the brokens of the tier and using them well. Sifting through just the replays from the tour, he's gonna be using Sun, or Indeedee, or Rillaboom, and frankly with the metagame being as tumultuous as it is knowing to respect what's best at this moment and playing it well is a valuable skill. Moreover, that approach has a decent match-up vs Jake, who generally likes to play offensively with a bit of a two-piece defensive core to fall back on. One of the more interesting games this week to me.

SS: Garay oak vs Bouff - Garay's mental is better by a significant margin on average, but if Bouff comes in strong while his dad is out then this can be a major upset for the Plumes. The Achilles' Heel as I see it is Garay's frightful, disrespectful team choices, including but not limited to slow balance w/Fighting resist Xatu in a Machamp / Bewear meta (twice!), which I could see Bouff taking a good swing at exploiting. Be that as it may, I find Garay winning as the more likely conclusion here.

SS: Spl4sh vs Yggdrasil60 - This is a blatantly biased pick, so I want to at the very least be forthwith about that. Both players are rather good, I got to work with Ygg and recall being pleasantly surprised by Spl4sh's games in the generations tour after being maybe lukewarm before being asked to do predictions for it. Ygg seems to have been experiencing a minor hiccup in the wake of all the constant metagame shifts, though I find it hard to contrast to Spl4sh's singular SS game this season. There is a non-zero chance this game comes down to Speed investment on Vikavolts.

SS: Averardo vs tko - I wasn't kidding when I said this was my personal highlight; I'm a fan of both players, they play well and have the wherewithal to push the envelope without going overboard. Play-wise I feel tko is in somewhat better form, Averardo has self-benched to this point accordingly which leads me to predict in tko's favour, but on paper I find this to be a game between two interesting players of comparable skill.

SM: Yay vs rozes - Not only is Yay good, but rozes has been amassing bad juju all season, speaking on Nav's name out of pure spite and acting in a fashion I simply cannot condone. Rozes' play is generally good, but when left to his own devices he will overextend on the basis that his tech will hit, and on the flip side I feel Yay is more likely to win out an even BO matchup in his current forme. Emphasis on the pregame in this one, top end of an entertaining game vs the distinct possibility rozes brings a Lapras that exclusively becomes fodder.

SM: DurzaOffTopic vs Ark - stylistically I view both players similarly, insofar as having their very ambitious prep muddled by questionable midgames. Durza has seemingly been on hiatus for some time, but the crust rule is fake and Ark is among a sizable pool of players that I could swear don't actually play this game until they do, making them again on about equal footing. I could perhaps put the slight emphasis on Durza here, who was reasonably invested in the tier during its time as a current gen, but I've always found the importance of such things to be greatly exaggerated anyway.

ORAS: TSR vs Chaitanya - This to me is an unfortunate mismatch for TSR, who is most comfortable in CT'ing balance where Chaitanya is, at least in this metagame, most comfortable playing something significantly faster. I believe that taking either the route of a total stylistic shift or to simply redistribute resources in such a way that doesn't redundantly target the same match-up (ik you're reading this, I hated the CM Sigi + DD Scrafty + Growth Venu. The Santu one was smart though, I should've peer reviewed that week) and taking him to the long game would be the best bet. If momentum is a concept you put stock in, Chait would certainly have it though, so with that among all else I tend to favour him here.

BW: The Leprechaun vs trace - Speaking candidly, I do not much care for Lep's BW building at all; that Amoonguss Hitmonlee Drapion team is worse than anything KW has put together and a heck of a lot of them just strike me as having a fundamental misunderstanding of pace. Be that as it may, I've come to accept that I'm a grumpy old man, and if someone is winning consistently with teams I don't like then that's not for nothing, and he has been doing as much for a minute, so god bless. trace's teams have been been better overall, but has played in a fashion that might almost suggest they're figuring it out as they go, which would concern me? Of course, myself being a bad player that's managed some modicum of success through a good prep, I can't dismiss the option of simply pulling together a strong team with good MU and making only as many plays as needed here, but my gut reaction is to favour Lep.


Hoping to have a fun set, as simple Nav fans we can but strive for the best. No.1 in the charts, No.1 in your hearts, gl to the Drampas

 

[Bouff]

SS: Pepeduce vs Sensei Axew - this is my "upset" for the week, without actually picking a winner. even though pepe has had a super dominant season, my gut is telling me that sensei has found his groove. he's been coming back from a p meh start into two wins when the drampas needed it the most, and his play has improved over that time. granted, last week's game was bizarre to say the least, and i may be putting in too much stock from just the numbers, but i know that his recent success has been good for his confidence. on the other hand pepeduce has been churning out solid teams and hasn't really faltered too much, so while im definitely rooting for sensei axew here i cant really in good conscience root for him to win for sure

SS: Bugzinator vs robjr - i kinda rate these players similarly overall - i don't know exactly how much bugzinator puts into preparation, i'm pretty sure he does a good amount? which makes me equate him to rob, meaning that they're both tour players that, despite not being overly involved with the community, do put in effort to make good teams from their own style. they also don't really make much mistakes and know how to claw their way back in an end game, so really this is kind of a tough call, but i'll hand it to rob just based off having the third best ss record in the tour, which is real hard to pull off in this meta imo

SS: TonyFlygon vs mncmt - mncmt has been on a surge over the past months and has shown he can do just fine in this tier, even if his builds are a little off kilter (at least from what i remember anyway). he also knows how to make those aggro plays to swing the tide in his favor, given his week 1 game vs luthier. however i kinda have always had faith in tony as a player because his playstyle is less risky overall in a way but he pretty much always brings solid teams and is proficient in piloting them. i also remember his timer going super low in some games this season, which is pretty scary to watch as a spectator, but he clutches them out anyway so it probably wont matter that much

SS: Luthier vs EviGaro - similarly to sensei axew, evi has finally managed to scrape up some wins in the past 2 weeks in ss, which is good cause ive felt like shes been on some sort of tilt for like a decade or something. evigaro won their last encounter in generations finals in a janky series with the hurtadoo patented servine, while luthier also beat her during ribbon playoffs in another janky series with a camerupt......i think. both of these players at their best are great to me, and they know how to secure those tough games under pressure. if this was a matchup a week ago id pick luthier but as of now its a bit close to call

SM: lighthouses vs Finchinator - this game is probably my highlight of the week. id kind of put another neutral bold because through combined factors theyre both at probably a similar level in this tier. finch has amassed the best record of the season so far after a bw experience earlier this year that featured some of the most absolutely ungodly luck against him that i have ever seen. i don't really view him as a "pick team say won gg" kind of player even though i don't think he's tryharding either for this tournament. i have a good amount of faith in diogo for this as well, i can feel that he's on his game. coupled with 49's help i think he'll have the better team for this matchup, but i don't really expect it to result in such of a matchup advantage to where finch will be helpless, because in this tier it's kinda hard to Just Lose to something. at least not if you have a decent team, anyway. finch is better at outplaying said bad mus should it happen, but im happy to see diogo rising up lately

SM: Jaajgko vs Gondra - gondra in this tier is a good sight to see, thinking back to his rupl season in 2018 where he kinda smacked the fuck out of everyone. his game last week was pretty wacky but he has enough of a background that, coupled with evi's support that he had back then, should give him the edge. i don't really know much about jaajgko other than he's french and he plays uu. last week he went "oh you used this team last time we fought", which freaked us the fuck out in our game discussion chat because we had no idea that was even a thing that happpened, but it ended up not mattering anyway because block lax had such a good matchup.

ORAS: Santu vs Pinboim3 - this is sort of the same train of though that i have for the gondra mu. there's not really too much to say here, santu is a decorated player in this tier by this point and he somehow manages to pull games out, even if it's in a boring, dreary process like some oras games are. i'm pretty sure pinboim has some background in ru, i think it might be helping out in the bw department in evi's generations run, which im assuming carries over here too. he's probably alright, but i don't think it'll be enough to beat santu, though i'd like to be proven otherwise.

BW: byronthewellwell vs MZ - in terms of mental i feel like megazard might slip a bit more than other people. his games have been kinda weird this tour, nothing that tells me he'll be at a huge disadvantage but not much that says he's at the top of his game either. byron has had a pretty ok tour. his game vs jake made me very, very, sad last week but i don't think he's particularly played bad. they're probably on the same skill level, and i think megazard is capable of tossing anyone in the right mood. just based off the events in this tour i'll hand it to byron but it can go either way

this took me way longer to write than it should have. i play on friday at like 3 pm gmt-4 for those wanting to watch, gl steelixes and lfgi vileplumes

 

[atomicllamas]

The Nav Fan Nidoqueens (6) vs The Dreamless Drampas (2)

SS: Pepeduce vs Sensei Axew: Both players are solid RUers, while I think sensei axew is good enough to beat anyone, he is also prone to making silly mistakes at times, I don't think the same is true of pepeduce who has been on a tear recently (65/35)
SS: Bugzinator vs robjr: Very close game, both are very good, bolding robjr because he's nicer to me (49/51)
SS: TonyFlygon vs mncmt: Is tonyflygon the greatest? yes (60/40)
SS: Luthier vs EviGaro: This is maybe the SS highlight, I'm going to go with what I believe is to be considered the underdog and pick Luthier, he has been fire in these lower tier premier leagues and based on my experience playing him in RUPL he was at least vaguely familiar with the tier. Evigaro is a great RUer and this one will be close for sure. (53/47)
SM: lighthouses vs Finchinator: I love Brazilians, they be speaking porch of geese and I be like quack quack daddy (55/45)
SM: Jaajgko vs Gondra: Close one, picking all of my UUPL teammates but Evigaro to make her feel bad (55/45)
ORAS: Santu vs Pinboim3: Santu is the goat of ORAS and beat me so bop (65/35)
BW: byronthewellwell vs MZ: I honestly can't say I know enough about either of these players in BW to make a solid prediction but I think the series will be closer to a 6-2 than a 7-1, and MZ is good enough, bop (45/55)

The Solid Steelixes (4) vs The S-Rank Vileplumes (4)

SS: gorex vs jake: Dang, this is a close one, gorex is fire, but Jake is definitely a player with a more solid base and while gorex can bring absolute heat teams sometimes they go to far. (45/55)
SS: Garay oak vs Bouff: This will be extremely close if bouff can avoid the tilt this week (though I would maybe still slightly favor Garay in that case), bouff seems to have a better meta grasp in my experience but Garay is also one of those people that just wins in these lower tier premier leagues and I see no reason that won't continue (60/40)
SS: Spl4sh vs Yggdrasil60: Both of these players are solid newcomers that I don't feel like I have enough information to make a prediction on, I guess I slightly favor ygg due to the fact he's seen more play in SS RU recently (45/55)
SS: Averardo vs tko: tko in ss? in this economy? (60/40)
SM: Yay vs rozes: rozes is fire, #1 raikou wielder, roman could never (40/60)
SM: DurzaOffTopic vs Ark: this seems relatively toss-upy, I favor Ark cause I think his SM support is superior on the plumes but wouldn't be surprised to see this go either way (49/51)
ORAS: TSR vs Chaitanya: after a slow start TSR seems to have caught fire in ORAS, there are rumors much of chait's success in RUPL came from col team's but the source on that was biased (60/40)
BW: The Leprechaun vs trace: Put lep in SS jesus (55/45)

Also while I'm here, just want to thank everyone on the Sandacondas for a fun season, much like my own season it started fire and kinda collapsed at the end but if a couple things had gone a little differently we would have been in for sure. Specific shoutouts to Amaroq for doing a ton of work in building for our SS, GW and HaxxSel for being extremely helpful and great chat presences, and roman you're gay.

 

[sensei axew]

The Solid Steelixes (3) vs The S-Rank Vileplumes (4)

SS: gorex vs jake - This will be a very very close game as both of these players are very talented. Normally, I'd give jake the edge as he's probably a slightly better player but as col mentioned earlier, gorex is keen on picking broken mons/playstyles and piloting them to their best capability. Both will definitely have good teams prepped (even if jake is fed one) and I'm very excited to see this one play out.

SS: Garay oak vs Bouff - After looking over both player's teams in the past two weeks, I'm a bigger fan of the teams Bouff has been bringing. Regarding playing ability, I'd put them both at around the same skill level as they're both capable of making plays when necessary as well as being able to come back from an early game deficit. However, since I've preferred the teams Bouff has been bringing, I will give him a minor edge in this knit-tight series (although Bouff's dad may become problematic if he's around lmao).

SS: Spl4sh vs Yggdrasil60 - Ygg's phenomenal start to the season went on a bit of decline ever since week 4. Nonetheless, he's still put up a decent performance that cannot be overlooked, especially paired with the fact that Spl4sh has only played one game. While Spl4sh did end up winning this singular game, I do believe that Ygg should take this one home.

SS: Averardo vs tko - erm okay this game is a bit weird. Both of these players have had similar seasons hovering around the neutral mark. However, Ave has not played a single SS game this entire season. This doesn't mean that I think he's out of the loop with the meta because he's clearly not due to his positions on the council and VR council, but it's hard to predict how he will do/what he will bring when I haven't seen him play SS at all. If Ave had played a few games of SS I probably would have bolded him but because he has not, I am going to give a minor edge to tko.

SM: Yay vs rozes - rozes' season hasn't been all that stellar as he's sporting a 2-5 record at the moment. Gustavo's been just about average but due to rozes' bleak performance, I'm gonna give Gustavo a decent edge here. I'm definitely not counting rozes out though because he's still a very seasoned player.

SM: DurzaOffTopic vs Ark - Not much to say here. Both of these players are very similar when it comes down to it, but after seeing Ark play a bunch of games this season whilst Durza has not played a single one, I do feel that Ark has a slight edge over Durza.

ORAS: TSR vs Chaitanya - This will be a very tight match. Both TSR and Chaitanya have had fantastic performances this tour and I've been wholly impressed by both players in both the builder (except for TSR's heinous RestTalk WoW Mega Camel) and the battlefield. I think it's just a bit too close to pick either side, thus I'm gonna bold the vs here.

BW: The Leprechaun vs trace - I simply cannot bold against Lep ever since Evi asked Lep to father her children for that insane Moltres play in like Week 4. trace hasn't had a terrible showing and I've been a fan of their teams thus far but I think it'd be a reach to not bold Lep pretty safely here.

We got this Drampas!!

 

[lighthouses]

SS: gorex vs jake - gorex strikes me as someone who would be nervous in this setting whereas this definitely isnt the case for jake, who i also think overall is much better. also hes lucky as shit
SS: Garay Oak vs Bouff - bouff needs to take this game less seriously(rooting for u tho but like relax man)
SS: Spl4sh vs Yggdrasil60
SS: Averardo vs tko - the only impression i got from averardos SM games in this season is that he doesnt care. he barely takes any time to think at all and sometimes ends up losing games he definitely should win just by refusing to spend 40 seconds considering some of his moves
SM: Yay vs rozes
SM: DurzaOffTopic vs Ark
ORAS: TSR vs Chaitanya
BW: The leprechaun vs trace - leps just better lol

hf everyone

 

[Chill Shadow]

Lazy predicts:
Oras & bw left side

 

[Moon]

thanks for the show friends

predicts

The Nav Fan Nidoqueens (6) vs The Dreamless Drampas (2)

SS: Pepeduce vs Sensei Axew
SS: B̴̧̢͙̮͔̯̖̜̉̕͜ù̴̢̺̝̂͌g̷̨̡̛͚͎̲̰̰̀̑͗̈́̎̇̓͜ͅz̷̛͓͊̈́̀̀̾͝ḯ̵͚̥̼͎̟͖͉́̽͑̄̐͗͑͆n̴̛̺̘͎̫̯̻͓͙̜̟̠͔͍̍̊̌̓͜͝a̵̡̛̙̠͚͙̯̲͔͕̼̘̣̘͈̫͌̆͒̀̒́͑́̄̍́͛͝ṭ̵̡͒̀̈́̆̀͝͝ȏ̶̻̞̬̘̯̼̹̳̣̺̓̓͑̋͑̆̿͆̚ŗ̷̧͓̲͓̘͈̠͔̮̼̝͙̓̑ vs robjr
SS: TonyFlygon vs mncmt[
SS: Luthier vs EviGaro
SM: lighthouses vs Finchinator (HIGHLIGHT MATCH)
SM: Jaajgko vs Gondra
ORAS: Santu vs Pinboim3
BW: byronthewellwell vs MZ

The Solid Steelixes (4) vs The S-Rank Vileplumes (

SS: gorex vs jake
SS: Garay oak vs Bouff
SS: Spl4sh vs Yggdrasil60
SS: Averardo vs tko
SM: Yay vs rozes
SM: DurzaOffTopic vs Ark
ORAS: TSR vs Chaitanya
BW: The Leprechaun vs trace

 

[Master Chief]

The Nav Fan Nidoqueens (4) vs The Dreamless Drampas (4)

SS: Pepeduce vs Sensei Axew: Pepe has been pretty fire this tour. I like his own brand of RU and he's been establishing himself as a good lower tiers player especially in RU over the past few years. Sensei has shown a ton of spark though as a new player and has picked up his game the last 2 weeks which is really refreshing to see and I do think he'll buffer himself a bit against Pepe's wild offenses but I'd see pepe pretty narrowly taking this one
SS: Bugzinator vs robjr: Close one. Both are relatively solid and risk-free in terms of their teams and games and both will be given something solid enough to pilot if they don't build their own things. Rob's been a bit more in-form especially in other tours so I'll give him this one
SS: TonyFlygon vs mncmt: Tony's been a fucking killer in lower tier pls. I remember that his loss vs Lily was due to an unfortunate stone edge miss but other than that he's been building very solid teams, thinks through both gameplans and teams very well and has enough diversity to spice up his game. Not taking anything away from mence though since he's been an absolute beast but his play in RU has seemed a bit more linear compared to his very offensive approach to OU. I think Tony's more invested in this tour so I'm gonna pick him
SS: Luthier vs EviGaro: Hard for me to predict but I think the new changes to the tier sorta favour Evi. The tier is very offensive and evi likes playing with very offensive tools and stitching together some neat offenses especially in the current balls to the walls offensive state of the meta. Luthier likes playing aggro too so I can see him outplaying with some nice plays but I get the hint that evi's teams will sorta help her not have to overpredict too much in order for her to pilot her team to victory.
SM: lighthouses vs Finchinator: Another very close one but Finch has been very good this tour and said in the last thread that he's more invested now. I like diogo's teams but they've been of a very similar meta/diancie structure. Finch has chosen some niche options in SM very well according to his opponent so unless Diogo diversifies this game, I think finch will take it
SM: Jaajgko vs Gondra: Jaajko has been using some neat teams and is pretty decent but gondra plays to win every game. I do think that if Jaaj is prudent with his team selection though, he should be able to pull the upset.
ORAS: Santu vs Pinboim3: This was a tough one for me to bold. Giorgoz is just so good at the tier. I love Pinboim and think he'll end up establishing himself as a utility RU slot who can play any tier when the team calls but santu is just too good and probably should be undefeated.
BW: byronthewellwell vs MZ: Byron's games have been weird especially vs esche but he ecks out the win when needed. Idk how familiar MZ is with the tier but I think mu wise byron will have the edge.

The Solid Steelixes (4) vs The S-Rank Vileplumes (4)

SS: gorex vs jake: gorex's teams have been quite spicy so I'll give him a bit of an edge based on that. Jake is great but if gorex pulls out the stops for this game he'll surprise jake with something and pick up a win.
SS: Garay oak vs Bouff: Difficult to bold based on the fact that idk how invested garay is. Bouff is honestly his own worst enemy and if something doesn't go his way, he doesn't have the greatest ability to dig himself out but garay i feel is kinda the opposite. Both are gonna use relatively standardish teams so I'm gonna go with garay's piloting on this one.
SS: Spl4sh vs Yggdrasil60: Ygg is french and uses some nice techs so I'll etch him out here.
SS: Averardo vs tko: Haven't seen ave much at all this tour outside of SM. I kinda think yay and ave should be swapped since Yay to me is the better SS player and vice-versa but it is what it is. Ave's solid but idk what he's gonna build. Tko is also solid and his games have been funny to watch especially in bw since rupl. Can really go either way but at the end of this game, the spectators are gonna be the real winners.
SM: Yay vs rozes: I like Yay's teams more but I like rozes' playing more. Tough one, yay preps well for his opponents so should have the mu advantadge but rozes has been grinding quite well in various tours and is quite decent in SM. I just hope he doesnt use another TDK balance and someone on his team passes him something.
SM: DurzaOffTopic vs Ark: Ark's teams have been quite funky and cool. I really liked the rose dual weather ball team, that was really cool to see and his other teams similarly have been really nice. It does come a bit at the cost of some stability in the team structure but you can't fault him if it works. Haven't seen durza this tour at all but i think ark's teams are gonna offset durza in one way or the other but durza can also take it if he just uses a solid team
ORAS: TSR vs Chaitanya: I'm just going with the better record here. Chait's been lucky and good which is a dangerous combo and TSR has been decent all tour. I don't have much to comment on ORAS so this is just a w/e bold based on the sheet
BW: The Leprechaun vs trace: I love lep. Trace is cool but nothing could make me bold against lep in BW RU. At the same time anti s/o to Yay for not letting my boy in SS RU this whole tour

 

[Tony]

What a lovely day it's been! Numerous predictions posts (always great to see), B̴̧̢͙̮͔̯̖̜̉̕͜ù̴̢̺̝̂͌g̷̨̡̛͚͎̲̰̰̀̑͗̈́̎̇̓͜ͅz̷̛͓͊̈́̀̀̾͝ḯ̵͚̥̼͎̟͖͉́̽͑̄̐͗͑͆n̴̛̺̘͎̫̯̻͓͙̜̟̠͔͍̍̊̌̓͜͝a̵̡̛̙̠͚͙̯̲͔͕̼̘̣̘͈̫͌̆͒̀̒́͑́̄̍́͛͝ṭ̵̡͒̀̈́̆̀͝͝ȏ̶̻̞̬̘̯̼̹̳̣̺̓̓͑̋͑̆̿͆̚ŗ̷̧͓̲͓̘͈̠͔̮̼̝͙̓̑ is back in the lineup for the playoffs and most of all...

Bonus nightmare fuel

Go Nav Fans!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[lighthouses]

won gg
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen7ru-512060

 

[Jaajgko]

won in a very tight game vs gondra, gg
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen7ru-512138

 

[EviGaro]

won, gg

 

[byronthewellwell]

won, gg
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen5ru-512187

 

[shiloh]

won gg

https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen7ru-512375

(still not a nav fan)

 

[The Leprechaun]

won gg
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen5ru-1157979293-5anijh4zz0u3dfierx4936fleb5hlnlpw

 

[jake]

won, gg

go squad

 

[Pepeduce]

Won vs Sensei Axew https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen8ru-1158035657

 

[bugzinator]

won gg https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen8ru-512468

 

[Finchinator]

Thanks for picking me up EviGaro and carrying us with support Hurtadoo and Sensei Axew -- you two are going to reach amazing heights in tournaments if you continue to put in the work you are. I cannot stress enough how cool it is to see you two surface in these tours and make such a large impact. Hard work pays off. Cool teaming with the rest of yall too

sorry that i wasn't always putting in the effort we needed, but i think 6-2 is a strong showing and i'm happy with how i played all but 1 game, ggs all around and gl to our opponents in the finals