Ultimately here's the problem with Bagon, Regis, etc:
- The detour to get them is still time consuming
Even if you want to justify it as a short amount of time it still takes a bit of time to actually backtrack over to Meteor Falls and the like. The rewards are less than stellar. Now granted, Bagon has a slightly lower opportunity cost than Regis but still - Bagon still requires soaring towards Meteor Falls, then using Repels of course, until you find the highest level Bagon. So the Level 39 one, naturally. And don't forget the detour to grab Eviolite - something else that was missed too. Now here's where things get a little interesting.
- The training portion of Bagon (Shelgon) is still a climb
In Victory Road there aren't that many favorable match-ups for Shelgon and I highly doubt Shelgon will 2HKO a lot of them. Sigilyph and Rhyperior are in the first two trainers. So let's look at the first calculation assuming Shelgon is about Level 40:
0 Atk Shelgon Crunch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Sigilyph: 56-68 (47 - 57.1%) -- 82% chance to 2HKO
0 SpA Sigilyph Psychic vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Eviolite Shelgon: 58-70 (53.7 - 64.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
Now naturally Sigilyph is faster so the Pokemon to possibly 2HKO first is
likely Shelgon. I did not say for sure because, remember, trainer AI is pretty bad. Even so - 1/2 moves are attacking moves and even Air Slash has about a 70% chance to 2HKO.
For Rhyperior:
0 Atk Shelgon Earthquake vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Rhyperior: 44-54 (27.8 - 34.1%) -- 1.2% chance to 3HKO
0 Atk Shelgon Earthquake vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Solid Rock Rhyperior: 33-40 (20.8 - 25.3%) -- 0.1% chance to 4HKO
0 Atk Rhyperior Drill Run vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Eviolite Shelgon: 40-48 (37 - 44.4%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
0 Atk Rhyperior Stone Edge vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Eviolite Shelgon: 51-60 (47.2 - 55.5%) -- 70.7% chance to 2HKO
0 Atk Rhyperior Hammer Arm vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Eviolite Shelgon: 34-40 (31.4 - 37%) -- 75.9% chance to 3HKO
Now granted Shelgon doesn't take much damage from Rhyperior but it is really short on a 3HKO and, even worse, could even fail to 4HKO if it's Solid Rock. Nevermind the possibility of Rhyperior having a pretty high chance to 2HKO (Critical Hit Drill Run is a 2HKO, Critical Hit Stone Edge really stings).
The next is a Level 47 Froslass. THE GOOD NEWS IS IT DOESN'T HAVE AN ICE-TYPE ATTACK? The bad news? Well there's the possibility of Confuse Ray. On the bright side Crunch is a 2HKO. So... uh...
Moving on. Mawile. Probably not the greatest choice but it can work. Mawile really isn't doing much to Shelgon, but Shelgon isn't doing much here either - especially if Intimidate is in play. You would need Hone Claws to really bypass this I think.
Shiftry is probably the only remote threat and even then Shelgon should be able to beat him. Eh.
I could go on all day about Shelgon here, but the truth of the matter is - it's below average performance against the average trainer. Sometimes Shelgon can get a leg up on some of them, but often if the opponent has some strong moves, especially Special, Shelgon really isn't surviving that well and it's missing 2HKOes on Pokemon not hit SE barring like maybe Shiftry / Houndoom.
The Elite 4... so. Let's get on this.
So my mistake for mispelling Sidney - it was not intended first off. Secondly, as an analysis Shelgon is probably about Level 45 - being somewhat generous for the Shelled friend. Let's see how he holds up against Sidney.
0 Atk Mightyena Crunch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Eviolite Shelgon: 33-39 (27.5 - 32.5%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
-1 0 Atk Shelgon Brick Break vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Mightyena: 40-48 (28.1 - 33.8%) -- 0.3% chance to 3HKO
So for the most part - Shelgon
could win. But there are two issues:
- Swagger could be used first. Though this makes KOing Mightyena a 2HKO it does delay time to unleash everything for Shelgon. Hitting yourself isn't too bad but it does delay things.
- Defensive drops from Crunch could be a problem - if only because it makes you vulnerable to the rest of Sidney's team.
For the most part it's rocky but it's a victory against one Pokemon. Now for Shiftry:
0 Atk Shiftry Feint Attack vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Eviolite Shelgon: 27-33 (22.5 - 27.5%) -- 34.9% chance to 4HKO
0 Atk Shelgon Brick Break vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Shiftry: 66-78 (40.7 - 48.1%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
IIRC Shiftry should KO after 3 Feint Attacks and a Fake Out. So this actually could be a victory for Shiftry but Shelgon can likely muscle through it. I'm going to skip Cacturne because Spiky Shield is the only real annoying threat Cacturne has. Shelgon is slower than Cacturne, so Payback is doing very little damage.
0 Atk Sharpedo Crunch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Eviolite Shelgon: 42-49 (35 - 40.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
0 Atk Shelgon Brick Break vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Sharpedo: 90-106 (63.3 - 74.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
Probably a victory for Shelgon.
0 Atk Absol Night Slash vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Eviolite Shelgon: 40-48 (33.3 - 40%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
0 Atk Shelgon Brick Break vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Absol: 64-76 (45 - 53.5%) -- 32.8% chance to 2HKO
Absol will win this one so long as it just spams Night Slash.
So for the most part Shelgon will always 3HKO barring Sharpedo and Cacturne - but neither are being OHKOed by Brick Break either. So while Shelgon can, in theory, take about 3-4 hits from these guys it is 2-3HKOing them back.
For Phoebe there is truth to 3HKOing Dusclops with Crunch. There is a slight problem, though - Confuse Ray and Curse can really fuck up Shelgon. Shelgon is at least faster, but Confuse Ray can still really limit to what Shelgon is doing here. Even though Shadow Punch does a pitiful amount of damage it will add up with Curse in the possible works. We won't really bother with Future Sight since it is a 3 turn delay and there -is- a possibility of having Protect to stop that. For the Banettes they do sting really hard - 0 SpA Banette Shadow Ball vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Eviolite Shelgon: 54-64 (43.9 - 52%) -- 12.9% chance to 2HKO. Don't forget the potential SpD drop which could fuck over Shelgon too. Or the Will-O-Wisp neutering Shelgon's offense. I can see Shelgon winning versus Sableye but not really against Dusknoir who can just spam Ice Punch. Honestly, it does okay against 1-2 Pokemon but, again, 3HKOing and now 2HKOing Banettes is not really impressive.
We aren't even bothering with Glacia nor Drake. Glacia's only real loss might be her first Glalie having lolIceShard. Else, crushed. Drake's Pokemon are easily faster than Shelgon and usually hit on its weaker spectrum (Flygon Kingdra and Altaria have Dragon Pulse).
For Steven... I don't think I really want to assume too much more. It can maybe Earthquake Aggron and stand up here and there but its contributions are going to be absolutely minimal unless it hits Salamence. And even then that's pushing it.
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So for comparisons:
- Trapinch, though slow, does exist longer and at least hits like a truck once. What you could do is really delay its capture until after Winona and then attach the Eviolite to it. This at least makes its bulk a little better. Vibrava will have decent bulk at this point, but to be fair Vibrava is only really doing some things because it has STAB Earthquake and STAB Dragonbreath isn't too bad. Flygon is at least obtainable by about the Elite 4 and it can contribute here and there with STAB Earthquake denting much harder (and having a stronger Flamethrower for Shiftry / Cacturne). I wouldn't say that Trapinch really escapes E too easily, but it is a bit more flexible to use in comparison to Bagon who just arrives way too goddamn late.
- Both Anorith and Lileep, though again later in the game, at least can contribute offensively a bit better around their points in the game. STAB Ancientpower and Rock Romb should at least give them a little leverage against Winona. Lileep should dominate Tate / Liza and Wallace. Anorith isn't beating Wallace but it should do a bit better against the Magma / Aqua thugs barring their respective iconic Pokemon.
- Duskull is late but Eviolite Dusclops can be a real menace to face against. Only problem is it's slow and does lack offensive prowess. It should beat Tate / Liza without much effort at the least and can do some nasty things like Curse Milotic. It also has its moments in the Elite 4. Again, nothing spectacular but more time to work with.
- Huntail and Gorebyss are late... but they at least have something against Team Magma. Huntail has slightly better moves (Crunch, Ice Fang) since Gorebyss needs Ice Beam to really touch Drake. Dunno, this is pretty close to Bagon's situation.
- Also will have to say at least Bagon gets better than Chimecho eventually. Though Chimecho could do some odd shenanigans. I
guess. It's pretty rubbish like Castform.
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General conclusion:
- In essence Bagon could escape D because at least by lategame it
does something. But really let's be serious - 2-4HKOing the Elite 4 without any real ways of boosting your offense is really poor and, while the bulk is nice, it just masks the shittiness of Shelgon.
- Bagon does have two large opportunity costs - Eviolite and the backtracking to Meteor Falls. Eviolite is a must on Shelgon by the way - it cannot stand up without it.
- Bagon has poor performance versus Drake and Glacia while doing average against Sidney and mediocre-to-poor against Phoebe and Steven.
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Now. I decided to save this for last because there is
one alternative to maybe salvaging Bagon in D aside from potential side-by-side comparisons with mons like Gorebyss and garbage.
Rare Candies.
Watching this video -
- shows at least 5 Rare Candies that can be obtained. Now I want to note that many of these Rare Candies are out of the player's way and barely are within the player's progress of an efficient quest line. Here is my conclusion: since we cannot buy a +10 Leveled Bagon, I feel
another possibility for Bagon to escape E is through Rare Candies and some grinding. Even so I want to point out that, again, this has extreme opportunity costs associated with it.