Well I said I would contribute my arguments for each of the suspects, so here it is. Although not yet complete, I’m going to offer my opinions so far on 5 of them right now (Staraptor argument coming soon), with a short (ish) explanation as to why (prepares for major controversy):
Abomasnow: BL
Yes, this was the one I was most concerned about for sure, given that it was the only Pokemon I voted to be suspect. To be honest though, I wasn’t completely convinced of its brokenness even at the time. I needed to see how the metagame would change in its absence, but now that I’ve observed said metagame for the last three months, my mind is pretty much made up. It is clear now that Abomasnow-led Hail teams were significantly restrictive on teambuilding decisions, an observation I’ve made from both other people’s teams and my own teambuilding process. I’ve noticed that there were many strategies and other factors that I subconsciously passed over automatically before, and that Abomasnow and Hail was by far the biggest factor in this.
I know that measures of centralization and over-restrictiveness are not by themselves grounds for BL status, and I myself get quite aggravated when people abuse such terms consistently, but I believe that a combination of the consistent pressure Hail itself brings on the typical team, and the degree of inflated effectiveness for a select few pokes that piles on the pressure even further, pushes Abomasnow over the edge in the support department.
Crobat: UU
This particular case really puzzled me, as I was wondering what the hell Crobat did wrong to be singled out. A fantastic lead no doubt, and also a great check for a number of pokes with its blinding speed combined with decent balanced defenses and typing. But on the flipside, not very offensively threatening (Brave Bird the only strong attack off just 90 base) and support restricted to weather and…well that’s it. Big deal. Lots of things can set up weather, and being very good at doing so doesn’t make you broken in any way. Setup weather teams have questionable effectiveness as it is, as they only achieve high win rates against teams that aren’t adequately prepared for them, which doesn’t include the top battlers that’s for sure.
As for arguments about its dominance as a lead, I’m still not getting what the big fuss was. For one thing, there are a good number of viable leads out there that are at an advantage against Crobat from turn one (I’ve used several). But even if you do have an unfavorable match-up against it, there really isn’t much that Crobat can do to punish you for that, unless your team is incredibly weak to weather teams in which case you have bigger problems than just Crobat. Taunt only prevents setups whilst Crobat is out in play, which it won’t be all the time. Poison/Flying is good, but that still leaves four common weaknesses so there really is no shortage of offensive measures available to deal with it. There are in fact many setup/support Pokemon in UU that can OHKO Crobat, so Taunt is by no means a risk-free solution to all potential opportunities. If more people realized this I’m sure that Crobat would end up declining at least a little in popularity as a lead.
All in all, I think Crobat is an excellent Pkemon with plenty of strengths, but does not so much break the metagame as be part of the glue that holds it together.
Froslass: BL
That’s right, I’m considering her as a BL now. I’m actually very surprised with myself on this one as I was sort of questioning its status as a suspect even just one and a half months ago. How things have changed.
What sealed this one was once again comparison between the two metagames that demonstrated the true extent of Froslass’ potential. Unlike Crobat, Froslass is a frighteningly effective supporter, particularly for its Spiking ability. Other Spikers such as Roserade, now the most common form, do not perform their role with anything like the effectiveness that Froslass did. It is almost like Gamefreak decided to custom design a Pokemon with the perfect set of properties for this role. 110 base speed, Taunt and Destiny Bond with GHOST typing (really helps with common priority moves, not to mention any potential spinners) really screws with so much that tries to prevent it from doing its job, or even trying to limit the setup turns it can utilize. And if that wasn’t enough, Froslass just happens to possess the two ideal STABs for discouraging the presence of the majority of Fliers and Levitators that evade Spikes, albeit unable to carry both alongside its ‘holy trinity’ support combination, but Ice Beam by itself usually suffices anyway.
IMO, Froslass’ greatest potential isn’t even as a lead Pokemon, although she obviously can function well in that role. That is honestly quite predictable and carries an unnecessary risk against certain leads that are prepared for it. Lead Ambipoms could easily screw with Froslass completely using a combination of Taunt + Pursuit if they so wanted to, for example. No, I’ve found that Froslass was most potent as an early-to-mid game transition supporter, after some initial scouting has been made. By doing this, Froslass would more often than not find the perfect setup opportunity (again, Ghost typing is so useful for this) and if played right was almost guaranteed to provide a net payoff greater than its own value as one of six Pokemon on a team. This in a nutshell is the reason why I deem her to be broken in this tier. In common battle conditions, Froslass will almost always have at least one opportunity (often several) to guarantee a team contribution of value greater than the required average for a team to win, if that made any sense. I can think of no other Pokemon in this metagame that would also fit that description in the same way. For this reason I have no choice but to deem her BL.
Gallade: UU
Was never convinced about Gallade at all, and I’m still not. The thing about Gallade, at least in the way that he is commonly played, is that he is a lot like the UU Lucario, but with a few obvious differences. Both of them are no doubt excellent wall breakers; SD boosted Close Combats with passable speed backed up by a vast selection of coverage options can really put fear into slow, bulky teams. But here’s the thing: both struggle to cover everything in a single set. Just like with Lucario in OU, there is no excuse for a bulky defensive team to not be adequately covered against Gallade whatever set it runs, whereas more offensive teams should be looking to take advantage of the fact that it isn’t very quick at all. One of the main differences in fact is that, whilst Lucario has powerful priority in the form of Extremespeed, Gallade’s unSTAB’d Shadow Sneak is pitifully weak against anything that is not weak to it. There are very few fast physical attackers out there that are at all bothered by a +2 Shadow Sneak unless they are already at very low health, which makes Gallade easier to check from an offensive perspective. Whilst Gallade has the ability to take the odd special hit, Lucario makes up for this with its extra resistances and special attacking viability. Gallade has a similar quality and range of checks in UU as Lucario does in OU, with the exception of a trapping option, i.e. Magnezone. So whilst Gallade technically lacks a 100% counter, he does not require ridiculous means to deal with.
There’s only so much that a wide movepool can do to make up for a mediocre speed stat, and he requires significant support to get into a position where he can genuinely sweep, which is mostly why I do not believe that he fulfils the Offensive Characteristic. The idea that Gallade is guaranteed at least one kill is completely untrue; it takes skill and prediction like anything else. He performs well against slow, bulky teams the best, but that comes as no surprise given that he specializes in wall breaking, and as mentioned before, he doesn’t walk over such prepared teams effortlessly. Gallade doesn’t make any specific style of play significantly less viable, it’s just that his presence means that such teams have to take him into account and not rest on their laurels. Gallade is not the only Pokemon in UU that exerts that influence, and such a factor does not break the Pokemon in any way.
Raikou: UU
Yeah, nobody who has been following this thread recently is going to be at all surprised by my verdict here. Again, with Raikou I’m still struggling to convince myself that it fits the Offensive Characteristic. The main reason for this is that I’ve never found it remotely difficult to adapt any team I have made to account for Raikou without overspecializing or compromising the team in any way. That automatically means that any claims that you are forced to overspecialize for Raikou are complete garbage. If I can avoid that then so can everybody else if they put their mind to it.
Anyway, my main concern with Raikou as a suspect is that it does not hit hard enough off the bat with any reasonable coverage. 115 special attack is excellent no doubt, but it only has a single STAB from a type that is resisted by a significant number of Pokemon. Now that would not exclude a Pokemon from BL status itself, as it may have excellent coverage options with a suitable amount of power to blitz through any would-be counters, and therefore sweep ’with little effort’. Not so with Raikou I’m afraid. Excluding said STAB options, Raikou has no moves higher than 80 base power, and with such low powered attacks you really need to be hitting as much super-effective as possible, preferably against those types / Pokemon that resist your genuinely powerful STAB, if you want to be a truly dominant sweeper. Well Raikou kind of fails there as well tbh. As far as Electric resisting types go (Grass / Ground / Electric / Dragon), Signal Beam covers Grass types, and that’s about it. Whilst the other moves in its rather limited attacking movepool (Shadow Ball / Extrasensory etc) have situational uses against certain dual-type Pokemon, this in general means that Raikou is heavily reliant on its Hidden Power to provide any reasonable attacking threat, and only one can be chosen at a time. Preferably, Raikou would want to cover Ground types as they are the ones that provide the most immediate threat, but one only covers a handful whilst leaving you open to the majority. The ideal situation for Raikou would be to have 4 Hidden Powers (Ice, Grass, Fire and Ground) for optimum coverage, but that is clearly impossible.
All of that is also ignoring the stuff that beats Calm Mind Raikou in one way or another regardless of the attacks it uses (Chansey, Registeel, Regice, Shuckle etc). Some of these are very common even without Raikou around, and Raikou itself has to specialize somewhat to beat them, in which case they are already doing their job. However, another factor I’d like to mention is the fact that Raikou needs at least 1-2 turns of setup before it becomes somewhat threatening, and does nothing to prevent the opponent from taking whatever measures possible in those turns to deal with the situation. I’m talking about things like Encore, screens, Haze, Roar / Whirlwind, Trick Room, your own stat-up or whatever else. The closest it comes to this is if it carries Roar itself, which only deals with opposing stat-ups and slower PHazers whilst coming at the cost of just two attacks + no status protection. Weather teams also give Raikou somewhat of a hard time, particularly Sand teams.
When there is such a wealth of options for dealing with Raikou, to the point that almost any team can make reasonable alterations to account for it, I fail to be convinced that it can ’sweep teams with little effort in common conditions’, and that it therefore satisfies the Offensive Characteristic. Much of the arguments that I’ve heard against it so far can basically be reduced to ’Raikou is BL because it forces you to run a team that isn’t mowed over by Raikou’, which obviously doesn’t cut it for me at all. Way too general.
That was a bit long, but given that Raikou has caused the most controversy so far I really wanted to make sure that I was selling my argument to the best of my ability. Thanks for reading.