Multifaction Recruitment Mafia - Night 13 (Deadline: 17/01 10:00pm GMT/5:00pm EST)

i hope you realize this completely skewed. freelancers SHOULD know that they have an equal chance, right now, to recruited by ANY faction. therefore, it is our best interest to weaken the strongest team, which is yours. why? because if we get recruited to water OR grass, we lose. that is a 33% chance of losing the game on the spot
But they don’t have an equal, chance, if they’re giving the right information to the right people, they skew the percentages. There’s 50 people and only 3 get recruited, meaning that so long as you present yourself as useful to the faction you want to join, while going under the radar for those you don’t, you’ve shifted the odds significantly. Perhaps you stay FL after a cycle, but having the odds skewed for extended periods of time eventually lead to your joining of a particular faction. Don’t make it out as if people are picked entirely randomly.
 
But they don’t have an equal, chance, if they’re giving the right information to the right people, they skew the percentages. There’s 50 people and only 3 get recruited, meaning that so long as you present yourself as useful to the faction you want to join, while going under the radar for those you don’t, you’ve shifted the odds significantly. Perhaps you stay FL after a cycle, but having the odds skewed for extended periods of time eventually lead to your joining of a particular faction. Don’t make it out as if people are picked entirely randomly.
theres no way to secure an equal chance or not. but realistically, having 2 factions equal in power is objectively better than just one. 66% instead of 33% if we're talking random recruits here is better.
 

UncleSam

Leading this village
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But they don’t have an equal, chance, if they’re giving the right information to the right people, they skew the percentages. There’s 50 people and only 3 get recruited, meaning that so long as you present yourself as useful to the faction you want to join, while going under the radar for those you don’t, you’ve shifted the odds significantly. Perhaps you stay FL after a cycle, but having the odds skewed for extended periods of time eventually lead to your joining of a particular faction. Don’t make it out as if people are picked entirely randomly.
Exactly, Lrr literally stated in his post that if things continue as-is, most people will end up on Grass or Fire.

It is only the Water recruits who are making this out to be some travesty for Grass. The literal Grass leader is voting for / recommending voting DLE. I'd trust him over Master Oden as to what is best for Grass long term.
 
Exactly, Lrr literally stated in his post that if things continue as-is, most people will end up on Grass or Fire.

It is only the Water recruits who are making this out to be some travesty for Grass. The literal Grass leader is voting for / recommending voting DLE. I'd trust him over Master Oden as to what is best for Grass long term.
i dont want to trust someone who said they wanted to afk and then got instantly recruited. and are now sheeping you for every single vote despite it being against their wincon. am i crazy for pointing that out
 

Yeti

dark saturday
is a Community Contributor Alumnus
Okay, I'm gonna serious post here because you and Sam are both completely misleading people about how this game works.

"Just lie to get into fire lol" is not a thing. Fire is in a position where they can pick the best roles with the best players, and have the time and resources to confirm these roles, even if they don't have a single inspect ability.

No one gives a shit about Pidge's pretext for voting Sam. Only people like you and zorbees who are obviously partisan keep bringing it up as if it's a serious point in a weak attempt to avoid the wagon. Everyone else knows this is about removing a Fire from the game because Fire has controlled the narrative and letting them run away with the game is silly. We're just memeing because it's a game.

Sam's point about numbers is also bullshit. At the start of the game, sure there was a 33% chance of getting into any given faction but faction recruitments at this point aren't random, and *especially* Fire's aren't random because they are being perceived as the best faction to join to win. This means Fire gets to handpick what they want, then Grass to a lesser extent, and if the game goes Fire's way Water will be left randomly recruiting people. This means if you don't have a good role that the other two aren't gonna pick up ASAP, there's a good chance you get randomly recruited into Water.

So obviously any FL who isn't already on the shortlist for either team benefits from wagoning Sam here. Considering your stated gameplay has been to remain FL until lategame, one would think you'd understand why leaving one faction alive on life support would be hugely detrimental to not only your chances of winning, but of having any sort of agency over your own gameplay.
it's funny you "don't care about pidge's pretext" when his trolling has led to two FLs dying (and may well have led to them being lynched if people like ME did not try and help them prove themselves those days) which i thought you were opposed to? i mean it won't in this case but that's only because he finally picked someone who was the first claim of the game.

i am playing the long game but unlike some of you cowards i'm not afraid of not being taken by whomever i choose. if you're gonna play that game, accept your fate and risks. and vote accordingly. i'm not telling anyone who to vote at this juncture. that decision is up to each FL.

if FLs are not doing all they can to trick teams into picking them up above another team, that's your problem. "fire can pick the best roles" isn't that what we were just saying about water and their band of claimers to hal? isn't that why drookez is dead? like play a smart game as a FL and you'll get picked up by who you want. it's a viva, craft your game accordingly.

my guess is you got picked up n3. look forward to seeing either in postgame or when realiti tries to benefit from my skills instead of killing me l0lz
 
Also, the implication that fire straight up beats grass is frankly ridiculous tbqh. You seem to have way more information than a FL should, given that it’ll be speed tiers and which faction has what roles. I sincerely doubt that fire can block grass’s recruit at all, and I must reiterate, unless you know ridiculous amounts of intel for either grass or fire, like what roles a significant number of them have, to assume fire beats grass in the long term is quite a reach.

So here are my guesses:
1) You’re grass
2) You’ve oversimplified your interpretation of the game so much that you leave no room to consider the crazy stuff that just happens sometimes.
 
Also, the implication that fire straight up beats grass is frankly ridiculous tbqh. You seem to have way more information than a FL should, given that it’ll be speed tiers and which faction has what roles. I sincerely doubt that fire can block grass’s recruit at all, and I must reiterate, unless you know ridiculous amounts of intel for either grass or fire, like what roles a significant number of them have, to assume fire beats grass in the long term is quite a reach.

So here are my guesses:
1) You’re grass
2) You’ve oversimplified your interpretation of the game so much that you leave no room to consider the crazy stuff that just happens sometimes.
read the OP.
 

Yeti

dark saturday
is a Community Contributor Alumnus
the fire > grass > water > fire speed tie only matters for:
recruitment conflict, which will be over with by lategame due to how many people are still alive
direct speed tier conflict, which is relevant IF fire and grass both have X role and attempt to use them on the same target

i assume due to the speed tiers there are not actually that many circumstances where moves would collide and the tie mechanic is relevant?

like in theory yeah, grass is disadvantaged lategame vs fire. in practice i think it is unlikely once all recruits complete to matter. again, everyone can make their own decision on how likely they think it is speed tier collisions will matter 'at the wire.'
 

Pidge

('◇')
is a Community Contributoris a Top Tiering Contributor
Just so you guys know, no matter how much the 'mathematically correct' play thing comes up, it's bullshit, and Sam knows it, and his recruited people know it too. They're trying to make it look like some kind of logical way for a freelancer to vote, but it isn't. The flawed reasoning Sam put out is only self serving. I'm loling at the fact he said 'most teams will be on Fire or Grass'. Well no shit, pick any two combination of teams and most people will be on it.

Grass has already reported failing multiple recruits, including losing at least one to Fire. I'm surprised Former is letting US pull one over him like that.

Water faction will not be completely eliminated with the rate of recruitment and deaths. They won't be eliminated for a long time because of that. That means, in general, you are just as likely to get on their shamble of a team as any other. IF, this was much later in the game, and you were a freelancer, and they only had a few people left, it would make sense to get rid of them to create a truer 50/50 shot of winning. However, we are not even close to that point. Right now you are just creating a win disparity between teams. I, and I think most, would rather play a game where I have an equal shot at winning no matter what team I joined, rather than one where you could end up on either an above average team, an average team, or a below average team.

Tagging internet because he said something about following numbers before.

vote UncleSam still



this isn't even my number one reason for this vote
 

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Yeti

dark saturday
is a Community Contributor Alumnus
tl;dr

but i see you have a picture so, billy was already on water when lind was voted out (source: billy told me himself). trying to sell him as an 'unfortunate casualty of sheeping sam' is as true as your self-watch seeing lonelyness the water roleblocker target you.

i'm like 95% sure pidge has been on water since hal was still in the game. if anyone has information that would prove this wrong please let me know.
 
tl;dr

but i see you have a picture so, billy was already on water when lind was voted out (source: billy told me himself). trying to sell him as an 'unfortunate casualty of sheeping sam' is as true as your self-watch seeing lonelyness the water roleblocker target you.

i'm like 95% sure pidge has been on water since hal was still in the game. if anyone has information that would prove this wrong please let me know.
he's freelancer
 

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