General Analysis: Luck

If you stay on Netbattle chat for more than 15 minutes, you will see at least one guy whining because he got "haxed". Luck (which will be called "hax" though the guide) is a very important part of the game, however it's frowned upon by even the best players because luck of course doesn't determinate who's better and it gets annoying when this 10 years old kid brags about beating some well known person. In this guide, luck, as well as items and moves depending on it and whether they should stay banned, will be discussed.

What is "Hax"?
Hax is, by Netbattle definition, is anything that favors either player and depends on rather low chances (near zero to about 25%), that isn't the direct choice of either player. That means getting a critical hit on Substitutes that would be broken by a non-critical attack (same with KOing low health Pokemon with criticals) isn't bad luck on your side. I've seen players complaining about that, but just think about it, it just doesn't work like this. You have the same chance to get another Critical Hit next turn. Neither is freezing then getting defrosted the same turn is hax if you weren't Ice Beaming for about 10 turns, just pay no mind to the two extra lines and count it as a regular Ice Beam. So, the following can be classified hax (but isn't limited to those):
- Critical Hits
- Full Paralysis
- Extra effects of attacks (Flinch, Burn, Paralysis, etc.)
- Repeated hits of attacks with about 70% or less accurary
- Misses of attacks with about 70% or more accurary

The last one is, however, something you SHOULD NOT complain about. METEOR MASH MISSED HAX HAX HAX MORE LIKE METEOR MISS LOL. You choose to use Meteor Mash, use HPSteel instead or just dump Metagross altogether. Too weak? Metagross covers what other Pokes can't? I don't give a shit. Stop whining. You are well aware of the accurary of Meteor Mash, so think twice before using it. Same goes with Thunder, Fire Blast, Stun Spore, Sleep Powder, Will-o-Wisp, etcetera. "It's all fine when I hit my oppenent with one awesome attack but I will cry like a 5 years old kid at its cost". No fucking way. Same with Jirachi Thunders - there's a 60% chance (42% overall) to paralyzle, but no one seems to notice that. Meteor Mash raising Attack is a normal thing too, unless it happens against you. But Zeus, Odin, God, Allah, you name it, hates you and uses all in their power to make your Pokemon life miserable, if it ever misses. Know your chances before complaining. And no matter what the chances are, it's supposed to happen to someone. You're that person and you lost a Pokemon game because of it, so what? Lost your oh so perfect record? You get angry at losing? Then you deserve to lose. Since it's clear your defeat was due to luck, you shouldn't take those who brag about beating you more seriously than GGFan. So what's the point?

In RBY, however, hax is another story. The whole game is, unlike RS, not really about teams (the choice is fairly limited, and very, very few UUs can be used in OU metagame) but more about prediction and luck. While prediction sure plays a vital role in RS as well, in RBY luck's effect is so big that it's mostly ignored by players. There's a 0.4% chance of any direct attack, excluding Swift, missing (Once, in a RBY tourney's final match, there was a frozen Chansey and Exeggutor against a Tauros. Eggy exploded and missed. Fun stuff.) There's also Critical Hit chances depending on speed and going as high as 25% and passing though any stat boosts including yours (This combined with Hyper Beam not recharging when it scores a KO, a lucky Tauros tears though anything, hell, most of the time it doesn't even need luck, it's that strong), being practically unable to thraw when frozen, Thunder Wave and Body Slam here and there...If you whine about luck and are planning to RBY, well, good luck to you.

GSC players claim that luck can be countered to an extent there, though the emphasis is on "to an extent" Although GSC's defensive nature (in other words, since GSC is all about gay stalling) enables saving things from a Critical Hit or a Quick Claw activitation, freezing both something and then the Blissey or Miltank coming in to Heal Bell it and similar things do happen and you can't really get around it. All in all, though, it is the least luck dependant generation, although I was able to outluck my way though stall teams with my Curse Kingdra/Bellossom/Gengar/Clefable/Politoed/Counterbliss team (Okay, I do enjoy bragging about luck as much as you enjoy whining about it. Luck rocks.)

Critical Hits
One of the most popular (as in whined about) kinds of hax, Critical Hits are unavoidable for any Pokemon save those with Battle Armor or Shell Armor traits. There is currently no "CH Clause" (Well there is, it involves editing the database to totally remove CHs, making the game essentially NOT Pokemon.) , so you need to deal with it. With some Pokemon CHs at necessary turns is fairly near uncounterable (Choice Banded Salamence comes to mind...) At least, every Pokemon share the same CH Ratio except those which use a CH Rate boosting item/move (and those with CH Rate boosting items lose their very vital Leftovers/Choice Band) so most of the time it's fair, sometimes you win just because of it, sometimes you lose. Except as Vineon said, no one remembers their good luck. Ever. Only I ALWAYS GET CHED HAX HAX HAX HAX. (BAN ME PLEASE)s. Also, in GSC and RS, the CH chance is, if I'm not mistaken, 6.6%, 1 in 15 (In RBY it depends on your Base Speed). Repeat, ONE IN SIXTEEN. Not 0.01%, it isn't Lord of Death Card, so it's not that rare for your oppenent to CH. Also, a common joke along players is telling about how Celebi and Suicune's chances of getting CH'ed depends on how much Calm Minds they had. Although this may be true, Celebi and Suicune stay there for sometimes WAY more than 15 turns, so it is expectable. Same goes for things that set up a lot. Don't get greedy with your Dragon Dances and Curses.

Hax Items
The following are referred as "hax items" on Netbattle and are generally frowned upon. But are they really worth banning? On which Pokemon would you honestly trade Leftovers or Choice Band for something that risque? Here are the luck dependant items and how they work.

Brightpowder / Lax Incense
Increases evasion by 7.8%, which means you will avoid, on average, 1 in every 13 (well, 12,820512820512...) attacks, wheras Leftovers recovers you 81.25% (Rounded down to 81, of course) HP in that period. So on sturdy things like Blissey and Snorlax, Leftovers is the obvious choice. However, with some Pokemon you will have a few turns before dying, this small chance to get in another hit might be valuable. However, indirect damage such as Spikes and Sandstorm will still hit you, and Leftovers sometimes is the difference between a 2HKO and a 3HKO (Whereas with Brightpowder you would make it a 3HKO by about 2/13 (Oh well, (2.12,820512820512 - 1)/12,820512820512^ for calcunator abusing nerds out there) chance, although there's still the 1 in 169 of avoiding both.). Plus RS OUs, even offensive ones, are known for their resistances enabling them to switch in various things, and Salamence avoiding a Hidden Power Grass or taking it with Leftovers doesn't make much difference, except the latter is like avoiding it at 100% rate. It's only good on things like Deoxys-F to give it another chance to kill everything and then more, but Deoxys-F über (and hax items, along with everything else, are allowed in über metagame), or something like Delibird, of which use of Brightpowder is acceptable. If a Delibird sweeps you because you couldn't hit it, it's something to laugh, not complain. Lax Incense does all that plus makes Wobbuffets fuck. Ewww. Those items will work on OHKOs.
Example:
Deoxys-F @ BrightPowder ** Djinn
- Thunderbolt
- Ice Beam
- Psycho Boost
- Superpower

Focus Band
Makes you survive an attack that would otherwise have KO'ed you by 11.7% chance. With all that Sandstorm running around you're WAY better off with Brightpowder, which doesn't work only when you're going to die, plus you can just use Endure instead of depending on Focus Band. 11.7% chance isn't as low as some people think, although it's still about 1 in 9, it WILL happen sometime. This item, also, will work on OHKOs. Whee.
Example:
Sceptile (M) @ Focus Band ** Papercut
- Leaf Blade
- Endeavor
- Hidden Power [Ice]
- Substitute

King's Rock
Gives certain attacks 11,7% chance to make oppenent Flinch given you attack before your oppenent.. What the fuck, are we banning NYPC moves next? 1 in 9 or so flinch is something I would definitely NOT trade for the recovery Leftovers provides. One of the weakest of the "hax items", even if you're slower it's like half a paralysis, you should be able to deal with it. Works with moves with no extra effects, so stop dreaming about that 80% flinching Dunsparce.
Example:
Persian (M) @ King's Rock ** Nikolai
- Hypnosis
- Double-Edge
- Shadow Ball
- Snatch

Quick Claw
The main hax item, Quick Claw gives you about 23.4% chance to strike first. Okay, Quick Claw might cost you a Pokemon right off the bat because you didn't know your oppenent had it and it can't quite be predicted, but so can Dugtrio! Quick Claw is just another element of surprise, and do you have right to complain if you underestimated some Borderline or UU and ended up getting swept by it? If your counter for this Pokemon is sturdy enough, you won't really care whether it's faster and slower - hell, it actually favors you since that Pokemon, as I repeated again and again though the guide, will not have Leftovers. Slow Pokemon also tend to have nice defenses, which also spells Leftovers, Snorlax doesn't like switching in Zapdos Thunderbolts without it, neither can Rhydon Substitute as effectively. Slow Pokemon with also weak defenses? Well, why are you bitching about THOSE?
Example:
Camerupt (F) @ Quick Claw ** Sailor Venus
- Earthquake
- Fire Blast
- Explosion
- Rock Slide

Scope Lens/Lucky Punch/Stick/Lansat Berry
Increases Critical Hit Ratio, how much depends on the Item. See Critical Hits part.
Example:
Electabuzz (M) @ Scope Lens ** AZN Jshadias
- Hidden Power [Grass] / Cross Chop
- Fire Punch / Substitute
- Thunderbolt
- Ice Punch

Luck Dependant Moves
I won't cover the Status effects there, however, keep in mind if you didn't get like 3 freezes in a row one being your Natural Cureless Heal Beller, just don't complain about it, it's not cool or anything. The most well known of the moves involving luck is, of course

Double Team/Minimize
Umbreon is the prime example of DTers, so we'll take an Umbreon that got 6 DTs, which is 1/3 accurary on every hit, more or less 2/3 damage reduction. Add that to Umbreon's great defensive stats, and you've got some PAIN to get rid of, especially since this also stacks with Acid Armor. This is one of the moves I agree on being broken, but the chance is still 1 in 3, not as low as I (and I am sure, quite a lot of people) thought. This makes it fairly easy to Roar out, but the aforementioned Umbreon would pack Taunt. All in all, the only reliable counter for DT is Haze. Don't even mention accurary ignoring attacks, Umbreon shrugs all of those save Vital Throw off like nothing. The trait Sand Veil gives you the effects of one Double Team in Sandstorms, it wasn't worth its own place because there really aren't things that would abuse that (save, perhaps, Sand Veil Dugtrio trick to avoid a hit or some help for a Subpunching Cacturne.) so it might as well go there. Those with Sand Veil trait are immune to Sandstorms, so the aforementioned Cacturne won't be hurt by it.
Example:
Umbreon (M) @ Leftovers ** El Chupacabra
- Double Team
- Taunt
- Moonlight
- Baton Pass

Sand-Attack / Flash / Mud-Slap
Jumpman had an idea of introducing Sand-Attack to Baton Pass teams, but you know what happens to black men with ideas. The idea is that those are essentially Double Team except your oppenent can easily switch out, which can be prevented with Mean Look on Baton Pass chains. Doesn't make much difference really, but if it makes you feel good, go for it. Also has the nice side effect of pissing off annoying stat boosters, something GSC players would know well.
Example:
Ninjask (M) @ Leftovers ** Golden Theif Bug
- Baton Pass
- Substitute
- Sand-Attack
- Swords Dance / Silver Wind / Hidden Power Flying

High CH Ratio Moves
Those moves (most notably Cross Chop) are generally "allowed" to get Critical Hits. However, they have a 1/4 CH rate as opposed to regular CH rate of 1/15, about four CHs of those will equal one regular CH. Again, regular CHs aren't that rare...
Example:
Machamp (M) @ Choice Band ** Androgene Rush
- Fire Blast
- Cross Chop
- Focus Punch
- Rock Slide

Focus Energy
Focus Energy increases your chance to get a Critical Hit, like Scope Lens and high CH ratio moves. However, it also takes up a turn, and those who learn it are fragile, which means DEATH. Having access to a nice STAB high critical ratio move and Focus Energy, Blaziken can do some decent damage this way, however you're better off with other sets, which are way better. Or better, you can have quite a lot of fun with something UU.
Example:
Blaziken (M) @ Scope Lens ** Katar of Raging Brasil
- Blaze Kick
- Focus Energy
- Sky Uppercut
- Hidden Power [Ice]

OHKOs
Another thing that should stay banned in my opinion, because you have no OHKO counter. Every Sturdy Pokemon either has -273,16 Special Defense or is weak to Water, and those who own the most reliable OHKO, Sheer Cold, are often Water type. Substitute, Protect, "prediction" (What doesn't prediction counter, ffs) blah blah blah, they don't really counter OHKOs, by counter's definition of "If Pokemon A can safely switch into Pokemon B and defeat it, then Pokemon A is Pokemon B's counter." Good luck switching prediction into that.
Example:
Lapras (M) @ Leftovers ** Fuck Metagame
- Surf
- Sheer Cold
- Rest
- Sleep Talk / Horn Drill

Why is Hax banned?
Because luck, by nature, is not something you can depend on for the most. There are extreme sitations, and players don't want those because they can't predict luck, and if they were to play as if every Pokemon had the aforementioned Items, or will CH every turn, they would certainly lose anyways. But Pokemon ISN'T chess, and if you lose to luck, remember that it's only a game. Nothing to smash your keyboard into your monitor. Most of the luck based items, moves etc. are not worth using over the standards and are just fun imo, but there are a few that would break though the metagame like Aipom though Steelicks. I have a very positive approach to those moves, but even if you are new, you soon will have your comments about them. Lucky New Year!

Edit: Finally snatched the CORRECT ratios from JMC's GSC site.
 
I am a cheater.

I approve of this topic. People ALWAYS bitch when Ice Beam freezes after their Milotic/Celebi/Blissey keeps recovering damage, it just makes me chuckle.

What do you expect to happen if you recover for 12 turns and I freeze once?

Body Slam always seems to Paralyze for me on the other hand...
 

Loki

like seashells
is a Smogon Discord Contributor Alumnusis a Tiering Contributor Alumnusis a Battle Simulator Moderator Alumnusis the Smogon Tour Season 7 Championwon the 3rd Official Smogon Tournament
yeah I agree with giga. you shouldn't complain about a crit if all you're doing is sitting there recovering.

edit: brightpowder isn't 12.5%, it's actually around 8% or so, same with lax incense.
 
Just like to add that King's Rock only works for moves that have no side effects

ice beam/thunderbolt/rock slide etc. do not benifiet from King's Rock

return/earthquake/surf etc. do benifiet from King's Rock
 
Lord of death card is only $5

Also I would just like to say that there is really very little point in having horn drill on a lapras nowadays, seeing as ice attacks hit everything, unless you're worried about pp i guess...in which case simply using sleep talk solves your problems nicely.

I'm curious: I remember in GSC counter reflected a missed OHKO move and killed the user. Does it still do that in rs? Never looked into it really...
 
Good read.

The fun part is that today I got fucked by a Baton Pass team when my opponent Baton Passed to Umbreon, it got paralyzed by my Thunderbolt, thus paralizing my Tyranitar, and set up 6 Double teams while I Fully Paralized 5 turns in a row. I was like 'fuck, I love my luck' all the time.
 
There would be much more stalling without luck. I do kind of enjoy defensive teams to eat their CHs as they obviously cry for it.. (That doesn't mean I use Scope Lenses or something - I just hate battling those Blissey/Skarmory/Dusclops/Claydol/Suicune/Celebi for 7625 turns.) Any game without luck can't work. (Btw, there's a German idiom: "Bad luck in play - good luck in love" and vice versa.)
 

Jibaku

Who let marco in here????
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You should also mention about Sand Veil in a sandstorm, because it increases evasion
 
is it possible to complain if your WoW misses 17/24 times, your leech seed misses 3/8 times, and rock slide misses 4/10 times?
 
Silver Wind deserves a mention. I got SW haxxed twice in two turns. Fuck you, Scyther. FUCK. YOU.

BTW, the correct term for Meteor Mash missing is 'Meteor Miss', which is much more fun to scream.

Also, mention the term 'OMG BG' too.
 

Syberia

[custom user title]
is a Smogon Media Contributor Alumnus
Quaza-A said:
You should also mention about Sand Veil in a sandstorm, because it increases evasion
Yeah, I lost a Zapdos to Cacturne that way. You should also mention somewhere that Sand Veil prevents Sandstorm damage to yourself as well.
 
http://ubernewhax.ytmnd.com/

You might want to mention that outside of Pokemon, "hax" usually refers to literal hacking.

This should have an entire section devoted to RBY. Seriously. I mean, the entire game is built around 75% and 60% accurate sleep moves, 20% CH rates, Body Slam paralysis, and Psychic special falls. Plus, it's the only metagame where there's actually freeze platforming, and really there's nothing worse than having your Starmie get frozen when it switches into Tauros Blizzard, unless it's having Earthquake miss the same turn Jolteon gets a CH Thunderbolt, or having Chansey FP six times in a row against a Lapras that it should have taken down with Thunderbolt and Counter if Lapras hadn't paralyzed with the first Body Slam.

This guide should also have an entire section devoted to Lesm, and Fishtauros is probably the only thing that'd get GSC any mention here.
 
when i saw this i thought alper might be making a retarded topic abouyt how people complain about hax and stuff but it actually turned out to be a decent guide!
 
NNEM said:
Lord of death card is only $5

Also I would just like to say that there is really very little point in having horn drill on a lapras nowadays, seeing as ice attacks hit everything, unless you're worried about pp i guess...in which case simply using sleep talk solves your problems nicely.

I'm curious: I remember in GSC counter reflected a missed OHKO move and killed the user. Does it still do that in rs? Never looked into it really...
doesn't do it in rs..=[
 
God I love QC Camerupt <3 <3

I kind of wish there was more on Meteor Miss, Rock Slide, Thunder, and the other fairly-close-to-100%-accurate moves that always miss at the most critical moments possible rather than a single line becuase other than crits they tend to create more hax than anything.

Meteor Miss created some pretty awesome whining back when 200 was the cool thing to do though, Metagross forever has a place in my heart <3
 

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