NOC Fire and Ice Mafia: Fire and Ice tie, the village loses.

[rssp1]

that was not an intentional mention.

 

[acidphoenix]

Yes, because if we guess wrong we all die in a fire, and if we guess right we end up in a position favoring town MORE and me LESS.

tl;dr it has a 50% chance of screwing town, a 50% chance of screwing Fire, and a 100% chance of screwing me.

 

[rssp1]

...if we lynch a fire mafia the best option for both parties is to no kill or to aim for town. There should be no situation in which the fire mafia targets you, assuming we lynch the incorrect doc claim.

 

[acidphoenix]

Lynch Incorrect Doc Claim

One Fire Mafian, Confirmed
One Celever, Might-As-Well-Be Confirmed
One Jumpluff, See: Celever except the other few percent
One Me

fire mafia killing me is LITERALLY a guaranteed win for them in that situation.

tbh i'd be tempted to lynch you for suggesting it, but see above, and well..
yeah no

 

[rssp1]

So i'm bad at wording things.
"incorrect doc claim" means lynching the fire mafia doc claim.
For whatever reason I thought "scum = incorrect... incorrect doc claim."
Or something like that, i'm not sure what went through my head.

 

[acidphoenix]

Also, for Lynch Correct Doc Claim
One Confirmed Doctor
One Me
One Celever
One Jumpluff
Celever/Jumpluff is as above
Town NLs
Doc protects somebody
Scumpluff wins annoyingly
Scumcelever dies that night unless I give him the game
I die that night unless scum gives me the game
Even if somebody gives the other the game there's a fifty percent chance the doc will make it townwin anyway
I lose in all situations except in 50% of the ones where firescum hands me the game
Scumcelever loses in all situations since I'm not handing him the game
Scumpluff wins in literally every situation
Town wins in every situation in which Celever is scum who doesn't hand me the game, and 50% of the ones where he's scum and he doesn't.

For some reason I like the whole 1v2v2 still idea better.

 

[acidphoenix]

I don't particularly care for the idea that my only win chance there is a coinflip that I only even get if Celever would rather hand me the game than let town take it.

 

[acidphoenix]

since I'm calcing things out
lynch Celever

scumpluff wins

if Celeverisscum

2 Doc Claims(1 is Doc, 1 is Fire)
1 Jumpluff(confirmed town)
1 Me(confirmed Ice)

hey look maybe it's just me but this looks suspiciously like what happens if we lynch a fake doc, except that Fire has a 25% chance instead of 0%


if NL

1 Ice Mafia
2 Fire Mafia
1 Doc
1 Villager
all players confirmed

tonight: if Fire Mafia kills me they lose in the case I kill Fire
I kill Fire Mafia
Fire Mafia kills or doesn't kill a townie(success etc.)
it's 1v1v1/2 now, with possible doc

...dammit


note to self: whoever made this really wants it to end in a kingmaker every single freaking time

 

[acidphoenix]

Oh and in that last scenario scumpluff wins

 

[rssp1]

No, there's supposed to be crossfire and villagers shouldn't be getting modkilled. That's why we're in a bad situation.... neither of those are true.
Also i guess it does create a WIFOM-ish situation if we lynch fire mafia, but if you mis-shoot tonight (assuming we nl), fire mafia win.

Also I think scumpluff wins regardless, most of us aren't even willing to consider pluff as scum unless its through PoE.

 

[acidphoenix]

We shouldn't NL unless Fire Mafia wants to.

On that note, after seeing I'm not winning,

Un-NL
Lynch Jumpluff

Doc- you can always target me.


Not that I want Fire to win, I just want this to end

 

[acidphoenix]

Oh and by "you can always target me" I mean that if I die tonight Fire wins, and if I don't die tonight Fire doesn't win. That simple.

That assuming of course that pluff isn't scum, and I will laugh if she is.

 

[acidphoenix]

And it just occurred to me that that same scenario works with Celever and that I have virtually guaranteed that the lynch will be on a townie this way and I am perfectly happy with this.

 

[rssp1]

You could alternatively not do that.
I'm telling you straight up that if pluff flips town, i'm gonna let the fire mafia win on the next day.

 

[rssp1]

Every scenario in which you have a good chance at winning stems from lynching the fire mafia doc claimant or from no lynching. Lynching pluff/Celever at this point isn't the best plan (for you).

 

[realiti]

lynching celever and jumpluff is the best scenario for acid, simply because if he lynches real doc he autoloses, and even if he attempts lynches fake doc there's not much point considering he can just lynch celever, there's just no reason for him to risk lynching the wrong one. at the end of the day i think we're still going to try to find out the fake doctor but will still lynch celever because it's the safest and most reliable method of winning

 

[rssp1]

It's the safest and most reliable way to win for us, not for him.
If he lynches the Celever, he has no idea who the remaining fire mafia is, and he loses. Thus, he's not going to do that since it will literally come down to a 50-50 for him... one in which he'll die regardless so he's either choosing town to win or fire mafia to win based on who he kills.

 

[rssp1]

lol wtf both UTO and I have been online yet neither of us hammered jumpluff, who is currently at L-1.
This means....
a) UTO is unwilling to reveal himself as the last fire mafia by hammering or
b) jumpluff is actually scum with UTO O-o

 

[realiti]

majority is three votes? and why would i lynch jumpluff?
acid's obviously not trying to aim for a town win...if he lynches one of us today, the game is decided today, while he can just have more time to guess tomorrow, if he lynches doctor fire wins if he lynches fire town/fire win

 

[realiti]

i meant if he lynches fire there's a chance he can win too, so there's no reason to risk it, lynching jumpluff means he's just giving up

 

[realiti]

lynch jumpluff

 

[realiti]

i just saw celever's vote

 

[acidphoenix]

hey look this makes me happy
doc if i die tonight Fire wins

 

[rssp1]

I know.

 

[rssp1]

I guess it'll be a tie.