Yeah, I know that Heatran runs Lava Plume, but I used the Flamethrower for the better chance to OHKO Mawile.Little nitpick, Heatran never runs flamethrower. It'll either be magma, fire miss, or plume. But yeah the sucker nerf actually does come into play in the case of garchomp and heatran. What used to be solid rolls for +2 sucker OHKOs become very shaky rolls.
Ash ninja, zygod, and zapdos I wouldn't even call shaky checks.
For the zygarde calcs, either mmaw is at +2 or zygarde is at +1, there's no scenario in which both are true. And anyway, 0 atk zygarde can't KO maw, while maw will use play rough, not sucker, for the OHKO.
Ash ninja needs hydro to KO maw, and +2 sucker will kill it anyway with just a bit of chip.
Physdef zapdos is OHKO'd by +2 play rough.
There are plenty of things in OU that can outspeed and hit Maw for SE damage, which is why you don't stay in on these things in the early game, but if Maw saves it's SD and sucker spree for the late game when everything has some chip on it, as it should do, all of this is irrelevant anyway. Anything it wants to +2 sucker will have some chip, and anything it doesn't want to dies to +2 play rough, fire fang, or tpunch.
And yeah, Zygarde dies to +2 Play Rough, but if it was Band or Life Orb Jolly, it can OHKO Mawile 100% of the time, while tanking a +2 SP
+2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mawile-Mega Sucker Punch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Zygarde: 244-288 (68.3 - 80.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 Atk Choice Band Zygarde Thousand Arrows vs. 160 HP / 0 Def Mawile-Mega: 306-360 (108.8 - 128.1%) -- guaranteed OHKO
Zapdos, while die to +2 Play Rough, can win the mind game with SP if the opponent want Mawile healthy as possible
Band Terrakion and Band Tyranitar can both outspeed Mawile and OHKO it with Earthquake or Close Combat with some prior damage
After all, Mawile IS more manusable now
Using the same EVs that was used in the analysis:
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+2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mawile-Mega Sucker Punch vs. 0 HP / 8 Def Garchomp: 298-351 (83.4 - 98.3%) -- 31.3% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
248 Atk Garchomp Earthquake vs. 92 HP / 0 Def Mawile-Mega: 270-320 (102.2 - 121.2%) -- guaranteed OHKO
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+2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mawile-Mega Sucker Punch vs. 128 HP / 0 Def Magnezone: 255-301 (81.4 - 96.1%) -- 18.8% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
252+ SpA Choice Specs Magnezone Thunderbolt vs. 92 HP / 0 SpD Mawile-Mega: 253-298 (95.8 - 112.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
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+2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mawile-Mega Sucker Punch vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Keldeo: 156-184 (48.2 - 56.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252 SpA Choice Specs Keldeo Hydro Pump vs. 92 HP / 0 SpD Mawile-Mega: 280-330 (106 - 125%) -- guaranteed OHKO
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+2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mawile-Mega Sucker Punch vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Heatran: 274-323 (70.9 - 83.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
0 SpA Heatran Flamethrower vs. 92 HP / 0 SpD Mawile-Mega: 254-302 (96.2 - 114.3%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
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+2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mawile-Mega Sucker Punch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Greninja: 200-235 (70.1 - 82.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252 SpA Choice Specs Greninja Hydro Pump vs. 92 HP / 0 SpD Mawile-Mega: 238-282 (90.1 - 106.8%) -- 75% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
252 SpA Life Orb Protean Greninja Hidden Power Fire vs. 92 HP / 0 SpD Mawile-Mega: 229-273 (86.7 - 103.4%) -- 56.3% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
252 SpA Choice Specs Greninja-Ash Water Shuriken (20 BP) (3 hits) vs. 92 HP / 0 SpD Mawile-Mega: 174-210 (65.9 - 79.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO*
*In this case, Mawile cannot Sucker Punch you
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+2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mawile-Mega Sucker Punch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Zygarde: 244-288 (68.3 - 80.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252 Atk Life Orb Zygarde Thousand Arrows vs. 92 HP / 0 Def Mawile-Mega: 265-315 (100.3 - 119.3%) -- guaranteed OHKO
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+1 252+ Atk Huge Power Mawile-Mega Sucker Punch vs. 252 HP / 216+ Def Landorus-Therian: 172-203 (45 - 53.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
0 Atk Landorus-Therian Earthquake vs. 92 HP / 0 Def Mawile-Mega: 246-290 (93.1 - 109.8%) -- 93.8% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
It will die to Rocky Helmet anyway
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+2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mawile-Mega Sucker Punch vs. 248 HP / 244+ Def Zapdos: 232-274 (60.5 - 71.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
0 SpA Zapdos Heat Wave vs. 92 HP / 0 SpD Mawile-Mega: 172-204 (65.1 - 77.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
You can do mind games with Sucker Punch here
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+2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mawile-Mega Sucker Punch vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Terrakion: 157-185 (48.4 - 57%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252 Atk Choice Band Terrakion Close Combat vs. 92 HP / 0 Def Mawile-Mega: 241-285 (91.2 - 107.9%) -- 81.3% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
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+2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mawile-Mega Sucker Punch vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Tyranitar: 132-156 (38.7 - 45.7%) -- 16.4% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Choice Band Tyranitar Earthquake vs. 92 HP / 0 Def Mawile-Mega: 304-358 (115.1 - 135.6%) -- guaranteed OHKO
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252 Atk Dugtrio Earthquake vs. 92 HP / 0 Def Mawile-Mega: 224-266 (84.8 - 100.7%) -- 43.8% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock*
If you don't want to have the chance to fail, Screech turn 1 and go EQ
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+2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mawile-Mega Sucker Punch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Tapu Koko: 165-194 (58.7 - 69%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 SpA Life Orb Tapu Koko Thunderbolt vs. 92 HP / 0 SpD Mawile-Mega in Electric Terrain: 242-286 (91.6 - 108.3%) -- 81.3% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
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+2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mawile-Mega Sucker Punch vs. 0 HP / 8 Def Garchomp: 298-351 (83.4 - 98.3%) -- 31.3% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
248 Atk Garchomp Earthquake vs. 92 HP / 0 Def Mawile-Mega: 270-320 (102.2 - 121.2%) -- guaranteed OHKO
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+2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mawile-Mega Sucker Punch vs. 128 HP / 0 Def Magnezone: 255-301 (81.4 - 96.1%) -- 18.8% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
252+ SpA Choice Specs Magnezone Thunderbolt vs. 92 HP / 0 SpD Mawile-Mega: 253-298 (95.8 - 112.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
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+2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mawile-Mega Sucker Punch vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Keldeo: 156-184 (48.2 - 56.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252 SpA Choice Specs Keldeo Hydro Pump vs. 92 HP / 0 SpD Mawile-Mega: 280-330 (106 - 125%) -- guaranteed OHKO
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+2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mawile-Mega Sucker Punch vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Heatran: 274-323 (70.9 - 83.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
0 SpA Heatran Flamethrower vs. 92 HP / 0 SpD Mawile-Mega: 254-302 (96.2 - 114.3%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
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+2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mawile-Mega Sucker Punch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Greninja: 200-235 (70.1 - 82.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252 SpA Choice Specs Greninja Hydro Pump vs. 92 HP / 0 SpD Mawile-Mega: 238-282 (90.1 - 106.8%) -- 75% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
252 SpA Life Orb Protean Greninja Hidden Power Fire vs. 92 HP / 0 SpD Mawile-Mega: 229-273 (86.7 - 103.4%) -- 56.3% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
252 SpA Choice Specs Greninja-Ash Water Shuriken (20 BP) (3 hits) vs. 92 HP / 0 SpD Mawile-Mega: 174-210 (65.9 - 79.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO*
*In this case, Mawile cannot Sucker Punch you
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+2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mawile-Mega Sucker Punch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Zygarde: 244-288 (68.3 - 80.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252 Atk Life Orb Zygarde Thousand Arrows vs. 92 HP / 0 Def Mawile-Mega: 265-315 (100.3 - 119.3%) -- guaranteed OHKO
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+1 252+ Atk Huge Power Mawile-Mega Sucker Punch vs. 252 HP / 216+ Def Landorus-Therian: 172-203 (45 - 53.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
0 Atk Landorus-Therian Earthquake vs. 92 HP / 0 Def Mawile-Mega: 246-290 (93.1 - 109.8%) -- 93.8% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
It will die to Rocky Helmet anyway
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+2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mawile-Mega Sucker Punch vs. 248 HP / 244+ Def Zapdos: 232-274 (60.5 - 71.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery
0 SpA Zapdos Heat Wave vs. 92 HP / 0 SpD Mawile-Mega: 172-204 (65.1 - 77.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
You can do mind games with Sucker Punch here
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+2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mawile-Mega Sucker Punch vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Terrakion: 157-185 (48.4 - 57%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252 Atk Choice Band Terrakion Close Combat vs. 92 HP / 0 Def Mawile-Mega: 241-285 (91.2 - 107.9%) -- 81.3% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
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+2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mawile-Mega Sucker Punch vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Tyranitar: 132-156 (38.7 - 45.7%) -- 16.4% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Choice Band Tyranitar Earthquake vs. 92 HP / 0 Def Mawile-Mega: 304-358 (115.1 - 135.6%) -- guaranteed OHKO
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252 Atk Dugtrio Earthquake vs. 92 HP / 0 Def Mawile-Mega: 224-266 (84.8 - 100.7%) -- 43.8% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock*
If you don't want to have the chance to fail, Screech turn 1 and go EQ
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+2 252+ Atk Huge Power Mawile-Mega Sucker Punch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Tapu Koko: 165-194 (58.7 - 69%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252 SpA Life Orb Tapu Koko Thunderbolt vs. 92 HP / 0 SpD Mawile-Mega in Electric Terrain: 242-286 (91.6 - 108.3%) -- 81.3% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
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The atual metagame has a lot of Dark resistances in Koko, Keldeo, Tyranitar, Terrakion and Greninja (ninja MUST be healthy) and a lot more threads faster than Maw that can OHKO it. Sorry if I was redundant.
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