Metagame SV OU Metagame Discussion v4 [Volcarona Banned]

"Stop talking about funny niche weather strats and/or the ongoing kyurem suspect test! We need 10 more pages of sleep discussion!"

Anyways, what do you guys think about NP :deoxys-speed:? I get why alot of people are using Deo-s to set hazards, but I find the sweeper sets are the best variants. It's got great coverage (including boltbeam), psycho boost is a nuke, and after a nasty plot it is very difficult to wall, especially with life orb. And of course it's only outsped by a couple booster energy mons. I've been using this set:

Deoxys-Speed @ Life Orb
Ability: Pressure
Tera Type: Bug
EVs: 252 SpA / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Timid Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Psycho Boost
- Nasty Plot
- Thunderbolt
- Ice Beam

It's nothing too crazy, but I've found it to be very effective, especially with scree support. I don't think deoxys is broken, but I do think sweeper variants are under explored in the current meta.
 
Let’s be consistent and start pruning the pure RNG elements from the game. Direct Confusion moves, Quick Claw, Attract, Focus Band, and Metronome. All of these are uncompetitive, and deserved to be removed.
confuse and attract can just be... switched from, though. if they were non-volatile like sleep i'd agree. there is also no competitive strategy for metronome and focus band that i am aware of. random, yes, but uncompetitive how?
 
Does King's rock stack with Population Bomb on Maushold? Because if it does, then we have a 100% flinch chance attack, and with webs support or a tidy up boost, that might be overpowered.
 
Does King's rock stack with Population Bomb on Maushold? Because if it does, then we have a 100% flinch chance attack, and with webs support or a tidy up boost, that might be overpowered.
I don't think it is 100% chance, though it most likely is close to it. It's like poison jab + poison touch not being 60% chance to poison despite being 30% for each proc, but rather 53% chance or something. I don't want to do the math for the flinch chance but I know it's not 100% chance.
 
I don't think it is 100% chance, though it most likely is close to it. It's like poison jab + poison touch not being 60% chance to poison despite being 30% for each proc, but rather 53% chance or something. I don't want to do the math for the flinch chance but I know it's not 100% chance.
Ok. But still. It would be unhealthy for the game wouldn't it. Maushold with two tidy up boosts or a tidy up boost and webs up outspeeds most if not all threats in the metagame. I don't think its a good idea to unban king's rock if it would allow something like this to happen. I think that it would be basically a 60-70% flinch chance on an attack and that's not okay.
 
Does King's rock stack with Population Bomb on Maushold? Because if it does, then we have a 100% flinch chance attack, and with webs support or a tidy up boost, that might be overpowered.
I don't think it is 100% chance, though it most likely is close to it. It's like poison jab + poison touch not being 60% chance to poison despite being 30% for each proc, but rather 53% chance or something. I don't want to do the math for the flinch chance but I know it's not 100% chance.
The effect chances on multiple hits don't add together; to get the total effect chance, multiply the chance for the effect to not proc on each hit by the number of hits and subtract that number from 1, then convert to percentages if you want. For a 10-hit Population Bomb with King's Rock, the total flinch chance is 1 - (0.9 ^ 10) = 1 - 0.349 = 0.651 = 65.1% (rounded to the nearest 0.1%, not counting the roughly 34.9% odds of getting 10 hits in the first place without an accuracy boost). For Poison Jab + Poison Touch, the chance to poison is 1 - (0.7 ^ 2) = 1 - 0.49 = 0.51 = 51%.
 
Let’s be consistent and start pruning the pure RNG elements from the game. Direct Confusion moves, Quick Claw, Attract, Focus Band, and Metronome. All of these are uncompetitive, and deserved to be removed.
First, let's talk status and probability.
Sleep, at base, has a 100% chance of stopping an opponent for 1 turn or more, a 67% chance of stopping an opponent for 2 turns or more, and a 33% chance of stopping an opponent for 3 turns. This is done in 1 move, has no type immunities, and is non-volatile. All chances adjusted to Hypnosis' accuracy for a wide-spread move, that's a 40% chance of nothing, 60% of 1+ turn, 40.2% chance of 2+ turns, and 19.8% chance of 3 turns.

Paralysis, at base, has a static effect of lowering afflicted target's base speed down to 50%, then has a 25% chance of stopping a target each turn. Has a type immunity (Electric) and is non-volatile. It has a 25% chance to stop an opponent 1 turn, 6.25% chance of stopping an opponent 2 turns in a row, and a 1.56% chance to stop an opponent 3 turns in a row. In reverse, it has a 43.75% chance of stopping an opponent once in 2 turns, and a 57.82% of stopping an opponent once in 3 turns. A base 90% filter should be applied for Paralysis Wave's accuracy as the most generic enabler, but since Paralysis counts each turn unlike how Sleep calculates everything the turn it's used, applying this multiplier is not so simple.

In comparison to those two:
Confusion is a volatile status with a 33% chance of stopping an opponent each turn, making them damage themselves. This works similar to paralysis odds, but without the static effect and with the play-around of switching out due to its volatile nature. The odds are low enough to make it reasonable, but most importantly, it allows play-around by just switching off given its volatile nature. At worst, Confusion inducing moves are comparable to Yawn, but with a much smaller punishment for not switching out.
Attraction has a 50% chance of stopping an opponent each turn, with no further effects. This is also not uncompetitive because even though the effect is devastating, it's a volatile effect which allows the above-mentioned work around. More importantly, it has the additional restricition of requiring the target to be of the opposite gender to work, and hard-fails always on non-gendered mons. This not only allows a play-around in-game, but makes it extremely unstable for non-RNG reasons, making it a non-issue.

(flinch wasn't mentioned, but wanted to add a comment on it, for the record: maths on flinch can also be done, but flinch is only a problem in 3 mons that combo it with Serene Grace, out of them 1 is already banned and 1 is dexited, making it irrelevant for this gen. In a generational vacuum, it's held back by the combination of limited users, requiring the user to be faster, and the need to do nothing but spam the flinching move every turn, making it very restrictive on the user's part in comparison to the above statuses. Flinch chances are, thus, mostly a curiosity and have little argumental value)

Metronome is also a non-issue as it's so ridiculously random and broad, there's no way to use it in any competitive way.

On the other hand, there's Focus Band and Quick Claw.
Focus Band does have an argument to go against it. Focus Band survives outside of sight due to the very low chance of it being relevant (10% in a very specific scenario). In short, the only reason why Focus Band is allowed is because no one wants to touch a ban of something that no one uses, and it's too bad of an item to actually use, even if it is uncompentitive by nature.
Quick Claw has been unironically talked about in the past, and only dodges the banhammer for the same reason as above: no one wants to ban something no one uses even if it's uncompentitive. Popularize another team that abuses it, and we may see it banned. It's the only thing in this massive comment that I would also agree on banning, but no benefit to starting that discussion while it's irrelevant.
King's Rock, btw, belongs with these two as a "uncompetitive item that no one wants to bother banning as long as it remains irrelevant". Except that it drew enough attention to ban it.


Does King's rock stack with Population Bomb on Maushold? Because if it does, then we have a 100% flinch chance attack, and with webs support or a tidy up boost, that might be overpowered.
That calculation is too annoying for me to do right now, but simplified by assuming all hits connect, it has a 65.14% chance to flinch. This becomes much more complicated when you add how accuracy affects this, since Population Bomb also has a 10% chance of missing each hit and missing interrupts the attack altogether.
When you add accuracy, it's actually worse than Skill Link + perfect accuracy 5-hit moves (chance is 41%), and both are worse than Serene Grace abusers. Mathematically speaking, anyway.
 

TCTphantom

formerly MX42
where tf does kyurem suspect come From?
Here are a few reasons, take your pick
  • It was the highest rated pokemon on the survey sent out for who to suspect
  • It was a highly rated pokemon on the last survey with several high ranking players ushering for it to be tackled sooner rather than later
  • It is a highly polarizing and centralizing pokemon, as outlined in the first post in the suspect thread
This did not come out of nowhere. Heck, people have been saying Kyurem was busted for weeks now.
 
Sorry for the bad handwriting, but here is my working out for reference on my dumbassery.
View attachment 596621
Alternatively:

P(all 10 hits of Pop Bomb doesn't flinch) = (1 - 0.1)^10 = 34.868%

P(at least 1 of the hits trigger Flinch) = 1 - P(all 10 hits of Pop Bomb doesn't flinch) = 65.132%

Could've saved you a lot of paper.

With that said, if people were curious as to what the expected Base Power difference between the two options are, here are the calcs

King's Rock:

E(Pop Bomb w/ King's Rock) = (0.9^10) * 200 * (1 + 0.65132) = 115.155

E(Pop Bomb w/ Wide Lens) = (0.99^10) * 200 = 180.87641

DM me if you want to see the derivations.
 
First, let's talk status and probability.
Sleep, at base, has a 100% chance of stopping an opponent for 1 turn or more, a 67% chance of stopping an opponent for 2 turns or more, and a 33% chance of stopping an opponent for 3 turns. This is done in 1 move, has no type immunities, and is non-volatile. All chances adjusted to Hypnosis' accuracy for a wide-spread move, that's a 40% chance of nothing, 60% of 1+ turn, 40.2% chance of 2+ turns, and 19.8% chance of 3 turns.

Paralysis, at base, has a static effect of lowering afflicted target's base speed down to 50%, then has a 25% chance of stopping a target each turn. Has a type immunity (Electric) and is non-volatile. It has a 25% chance to stop an opponent 1 turn, 6.25% chance of stopping an opponent 2 turns in a row, and a 1.56% chance to stop an opponent 3 turns in a row. In reverse, it has a 43.75% chance of stopping an opponent once in 2 turns, and a 57.82% of stopping an opponent once in 3 turns. A base 90% filter should be applied for Paralysis Wave's accuracy as the most generic enabler, but since Paralysis counts each turn unlike how Sleep calculates everything the turn it's used, applying this multiplier is not so simple.

In comparison to those two:
Confusion is a volatile status with a 33% chance of stopping an opponent each turn, making them damage themselves. This works similar to paralysis odds, but without the static effect and with the play-around of switching out due to its volatile nature. The odds are low enough to make it reasonable, but most importantly, it allows play-around by just switching off given its volatile nature. At worst, Confusion inducing moves are comparable to Yawn, but with a much smaller punishment for not switching out.
Attraction has a 50% chance of stopping an opponent each turn, with no further effects. This is also not uncompetitive because even though the effect is devastating, it's a volatile effect which allows the above-mentioned work around. More importantly, it has the additional restricition of requiring the target to be of the opposite gender to work, and hard-fails always on non-gendered mons. This not only allows a play-around in-game, but makes it extremely unstable for non-RNG reasons, making it a non-issue.

(flinch wasn't mentioned, but wanted to add a comment on it, for the record: maths on flinch can also be done, but flinch is only a problem in 3 mons that combo it with Serene Grace, out of them 1 is already banned and 1 is dexited, making it irrelevant for this gen. In a generational vacuum, it's held back by the combination of limited users, requiring the user to be faster, and the need to do nothing but spam the flinching move every turn, making it very restrictive on the user's part in comparison to the above statuses. Flinch chances are, thus, mostly a curiosity and have little argumental value)

Metronome is also a non-issue as it's so ridiculously random and broad, there's no way to use it in any competitive way.

On the other hand, there's Focus Band and Quick Claw.
Focus Band does have an argument to go against it. Focus Band survives outside of sight due to the very low chance of it being relevant (10% in a very specific scenario). In short, the only reason why Focus Band is allowed is because no one wants to touch a ban of something that no one uses, and it's too bad of an item to actually use, even if it is uncompentitive by nature.
Quick Claw has been unironically talked about in the past, and only dodges the banhammer for the same reason as above: no one wants to ban something no one uses even if it's uncompentitive. Popularize another team that abuses it, and we may see it banned. It's the only thing in this massive comment that I would also agree on banning, but no benefit to starting that discussion while it's irrelevant.
King's Rock, btw, belongs with these two as a "uncompetitive item that no one wants to bother banning as long as it remains irrelevant". Except that it drew enough attention to ban it.



That calculation is too annoying for me to do right now, but simplified by assuming all hits connect, it has a 65.14% chance to flinch. This becomes much more complicated when you add how accuracy affects this, since Population Bomb also has a 10% chance of missing each hit and missing interrupts the attack altogether.
When you add accuracy, it's actually worse than Skill Link + perfect accuracy 5-hit moves (chance is 41%), and both are worse than Serene Grace abusers. Mathematically speaking, anyway.
Thanks for pointing out the obvious . No shit the moves and items I pointed out are bad. Especially in comparison to sleep, but that’s not the point. The point is that they add unneeded/unwanted elements of pure RNG to the game, and thus are uncompetitive. These moves and items serve no purpose, unlike Paralyses gimping speed, other than to roll the dice to potentially flip and win match ups for their users that have no right doing so. If we’re stating uncompetitiveness as a reason to ban items/moves then we should be consistent with that view by axing even bad items/moves.
 
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Thanks for pointing out the obvious . No shot the moves and items I pointed out are bad. Especially in comparison to sleep, but that’s not the point. The point is that they add unneeded/unwanted elements of pure RNG to the game, and thus are uncompetitive. These moves and items serve no purpose, unlike Paralyses gimping speed, other than to roll the dice to potentially flip and win match ups for their users that have no right doing so. If we’re stating uncompetitiveness as a reason to ban items/moves then we should be consistent with that view by axing even bad items/moves.
by admitting that sleep is better, you're admitting that there's a way to measure those mechanics in "better" and "worse". Which implies that there's a "threshold" on how good/impactful a random mechanic can be before it becomes a problem. More importantly, the greatest problem with luck-based mechanics is how interactive they may be. Can you adapt to them? Can you play around them? Can you count on them? If the answer is no (or a very conditional yes) yet they're good enough to flip the match entirely, that's when it's a problem. This is not necessarily a "black or white" metric, but a meassurement of tones of grey. Which is why mechanics like Sleep survive for so long; restricted sleep was a (dark) shade of grey.

Simplifying:
Confusion and Attraction are interactive and not impactful enough to be a problem. Neither is Metronome.
Focus Band and Quick Claw are non-interactive and moderately impactful, and should be banned based on premise, but there's no need to go out of our way to ban them while they're irrelevant, and are ultimately also "shades of grey".
The "right way" of approaching these is wait until someone abuses them or popularizes a team that uses them, then ask for their banning to garner support. "Should do" is not enough; we need something that makes it meta-relevant (note: "relevant", not "good"). Which is why elements that are "too bad to be relevant even while they're random" are left alone. Granted, this is borderline politics, but alas, "policy" issues are not called so haphazardly.
 
Unrelated note, but I only need to create 10 more gimmick sets of OU mons to create a gimmick set for every OU mon. The ones I have left are Dragonite, Enamorus, Excadrill, Gholdengo, Iron Crown, Pecharunt, Raging bolt, Skeledirge, Ting lu and Weavile.

Edit: Just created an enamorus set, so that is down to 9 gimmick sets left.
 
first of all, public opinion supported the sleep ban according to the survey.
the only public opinion they got from the survey was that the hypnosis meta sucked. They didn't gather opinion on people's preferences on different solutions at all, which is relevant because:
second, even if it hadn't, why should "public opinion" even be relevant to matters of policy in the first place?
This is the argument Finch makes in his post on the matter. The crux of the argument is that there's no good way to test whether someone understands whether something is UNCOMPETITIVE, unlike when something is broken, which can be determined via suspect test. The issue I have is the loose use of the word "uncompetitive." According to our own definition, "uncompetitive" means when something takes skill out of the hands of the players. In this case, I fail to see how sleep is uncompetitive. The only part about sleep that's RNG-based is the sleep turns (and hypnosis rng but that's honestly a net positive. can you imagine if it was 100% accurate?). If you ask me, the real problem with sleep was that it was able to remove certain pokemon's checks so that they could sweep late-game. But that's not the fault of sleep; it's certainly not unstoppable. Especially this gen, we've seen the best sleep absorbers in the game: gliscor, gholdengo, and hatterene are all splashable checks to sleep in general. There is counterplay. The problem with the absuers is that they can get past them: darkrai blows all of them up with +2 LO dark pulses and Ival donned a new shadow ball/hex set to completely ruin their day. But that sounds like "broken" rather than "uncompetitive," thus why I believe we should've had a suspect test.

and third, and this is an open question for every anti-ban person, would you be saying any of this if the result had gone the other way? because i bet that if the council had voted against a sleep ban you'd be praising them for "standing against the tyranny of the majority" right now, even though the thing you criticized (the act of holding a council vote) would be unchanged. all of this so-called "dissatisfaction with the process" would have been nonexistent if every part of the process was identical except for the results of the council vote
Yes, I would. The problem I have with sleep is the process, not the result. If we had gotten a normal suspect test and people voted and it turns out everybody voted full ban for sleep, I would've been fine with that.
Please note that I don't believe this discussion has a purpose or should be continued any longer; I'm simply explaining my position

edit: also, between this thread's probability calculations and the DozoVDozo matches at VGC, I'm pretty sure I'm learning more math here than I ever have in school.
 
1. The Sleep move ban is a good thing - sleep clause mod was always BS. Regulations are written in blood; in this case, the blood was thousands of games where somebody lost half their team to sleep with no recourse in the builder or in play. This should have resulted in a ban, but competitive online pokemon was in its infancy and that's not how it went. Banning Darkari or Val (on top of sleep clause!) is really a complex ban to keep sleep. A much much cleaner method is to ban sleep. I cannot believe it took 20 years.

2. by leaving Rest the status still exists. Like I get the flavor reasons why sleep exists as a status, hypno and all that. However, it shouldn't exist at all. Nor should frozen. I still cannot believe that the pokemon company ignored the status innovations of PLA; we NEED a spatk burn, drowsy should have been spatk confusion. (and for my spiciest take - burn should lower spdef along with atk and frostbite should lower def along with spatk) If people are gonna make 1000 posts trying to eliminate RNG via mods that's their choice but they should rededicate their effort to promoting mods for these statuses b/c the pokemon company won't let us have nice things

3. banning sleep isn't an argument for eliminating RNG from the game. You cannot remove RNG from this game any more than you can remove RNG from poker. Managing probability is a skill. Knowing when a game element has moved past probability into "uncompetitive" territory is also a skill, that the council has in spades.
 
Alright, since I haven't done pecharunt's gimmick set yet and the tier changes will be happening soon, I'm going to be doing my OU mons that I've created gimmick sets for, I do have other non OU gimmick sets but I'll do those later. Anyways, here's the team.

:sv/great tusk:
Great Tusk @ Choice Scarf
Ability: Protosynthesis
Tera Type: Rock
EVs: 252 Atk / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Jolly Nature
- Head Smash
- Heavy Slam
- Supercell Slam
- Headlong Rush
This set was inspired by NotDaProGamer a while back, and I've got to say, it is amazing at cleaning up. The main concept of this is scarf tera rock head smashes to destroy any potential switch ins, the other moves can be switched out for more usual moves that you would see on tusk. With max speed and jolly, you reach a speed stat of 450, which outspeeds scarf ghold and jolly/timid dragapult. It can have amazing suprise factor as one of tusk's only negatives is that it's speed tier is starting to get powercrept by other mons. I don't have much more to say for this set other than fast tusk is an amazing suprise that can get the jump on opponents, as unlike booster speed, you can't see that it has a scarf when it switches in.

:sv/clefable:
Clefable @ Life Orb
Ability: Magic Guard
Tera Type: Steel
EVs: 252 HP / 252 Atk / 4 SpD
Adamant Nature
- Meteor Mash
- Moonlight
- Drain Punch
- Knock Off
When I created this set, I didn't even know that clefable got play rough, but I think it is still great without it. Although clefable has no physical attacking boosting moves, you can use the attack boosts from meteor mash to snowball out of control if you get lucky. 70 attack may not be much, but it gets the job done most of the time. Knock off allows progress to be made against fatter teams while doing great damage and drain punch allows for some healing if you don't want to burn moonlight pp. Finally, life orb and magic guard is a great combo as you get the 1.3x boost but don't take any recoil, though I could see unaware being used to set up against boost sweepers. Overall, clefable can put in work and can suprise mons like slowking galar that think they can wall it by using meaty knock offs or mashes.

:sv/serperior:
Serperior @ Leftovers
Ability: Contrary
Tera Type: Stellar
EVs: 4 HP / 252 Atk / 252 Spe
Jolly Nature
- Leaf Blade
- Knock Off
- Tera Blast
- Scale Shot/Body Slam
So, I tried to do something with physical contrary serperior because serp has the same attack and sp.A stat and it was, fine. It wasn't spectacular but it didn't blow away games. Your only boosting option is tera blast, which requires tera so that can be difficult. Knock off and leaf blade are good coverage moves that can do decent damage to neutral targets. The main unique aspect of this set was scale shot, which on a contrary mon reduces its speed but raises its defense. This overall didn't come in handy too often but against slow wallbreakers that didn't hit serp too hard, it was a nice option to have. I also put on body slam if you want to deal damage while spreading paralysis, though I personally didn't use it. There is not much to say for serp as it's movepool is super barren, comprising of normal, grass and dragon moves mainly and thus I struggled quite a lot with creating one.

:sv/samurott hisui:
Samurott-Hisui @ Life Orb
Ability: Sharpness
Tera Type: Fighting
EVs: 4 Atk / 252 SpA / 252 Spe
Naive Nature
- Ceaseless Edge
- Air Slash
- Vacuum Wave
- Surf
I think people forget that hamurott has a great 100 sp.A because it's 108 attack is not only higher, but has a lot more sharpness boosted moves for that attacking side. Thus, I decided to create a special hamurott, well mostly. Of course I had to put on ceaseless edge on this set otherwise it would be a complete joke set, more than my sets usually are lmao. Air slash is the only relevant sharpness boosted move on the special side and can hit decently hard with the effective 112.5 base power of the move. Vacuum wave is an integral part of this set as it can help against boost sweepers and with tera fighting, the base power gets boosted to 60 bp due to tera shenanigans. The was so good against darkrai when it was using hypnosis sets (rip bozo), because I could get off a surf attack if it missed and then hit a vacuum wave, essentialy getting a free ko. Speaking of surf, that's the last move in this set. It just gives you a reliable stab move to use and is picked over hydro pump due to the other moves (besides vacuum wave) not being 100% accurate. Overall, this set actually turned out pretty well and is a great wallbreaker mon as most mons are better on one side than the other and I think exploring some special hamurott would be good for the development of this mons kit.

:sv/Archaludon:
Archaludon @ Leftovers
Ability: Stamina
Tera Type: Flying
EVs: 252 Atk / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Jolly Nature
- Swords Dance
- Earthquake
- Dragon Claw
- Iron Head
Did you know that archaludon has 105 base attack? Crazy right. I first started out with a hone claws set with stone edge because I didn't know it got sd, until I ran into a sd all special attacks duraludon (why???????!!!!???). So I swapped out stone miss for earthquake along with the boosting move and got this set. The main point of this set is to suprise opponents expecting normal arch sets and do great damage with boosted moves. Tera flying allows arch to set up on tusk quite easily and get off a free sd or two if the don't have ice spinner. E-quake is just a good coverage move as it allows arch to hit a lot of targets like gambit or ghold that would resist its stab moves. Dragon claw and iron head are obvious candidates as stab moves and do decent damage while not locking arch in for dragon stab, as fairies don't want to take a boosted iron head.

:sv/heatran:
Heatran @ Assault Vest
Ability: Flame Body
Tera Type: Grass
EVs: 4 HP / 252 Def / 252 SpA
Bold Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Magma Storm
- Flash Cannon
- Scorching Sands
- Power Gem
This is probably the most standard set out of the ones here, but it is a great one. Assault vest on heatran plus full defense investment allows heatran to take many hits, even some non-stab boosted e-quakes, iron bouler only has a 80% chance to ohko it, which is impressive. With vest, heatran can even comfortably survive a scarf enamorus earth power, with it doing max 93% to it, which is insane when coming from a 4x weak move. The moves are standard for the most part, as magma storm and flash cannon are great stabs. Scorching sands was chosen over earth power for the chance to apply burns, making up a bit for the fact that heatran can't use wisp, while power gem can help against stuff like dragonite that are not weak to heatran's stabs. Finally, flame body was chosen to allow heatran to punish contact moves more effectively, once again making up a bit for no wisp. Overallm heatran on this team is a reliable mon that can survive many hits and provide a crucial backbone.
 
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