Suspect Test: Poliwhirl in RBY NU

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Sabelette

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:poliwhirl: RBY NU Poliwhirl Suspect Test :poliwhirl:
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Yes I'm absolutely reusing this joke from the APT Suspect, don't @ me

In response to both community debate within the RBY NU Thread (see here and here as well as discussions following these posts) and the RBY Discord, as well as Poliwhirl being banned from NUSD III, allowing a "pre-test" for a Poliwhirl-less tier, the RBY NU Council has decided to suspect test Poliwhirl. This suspect test was decided on by the RBY NU Council, and was approved by the RBY Lower Tiers Leader (phoopes).

Parallel thread for non-voters here.

RBY NU has undergone significant meta development in the last 6 months as a number of individual and team tournaments occurred, and throughout these tournaments perhaps no Pokemon has been more controversial than Poliwhirl. Due to its powerful combination of Hypnosis and Amnesia, it is able to disable one opponent for up to seven turns and then double its Special stat as the opponent is forced to switch out, granting it both increased longevity and massively increased damage against whatever comes in to face it. This is backed by a base Speed of 90 (quite high for NU), allowing it to revenge sleep most of the tier, including staples such as Clefable, Blastoise, and Kabutops. Thus, it has become infamous for its ability to remove two or even three opposing Pokemon by itself should it land Hypnosis, as few opponents can defeat a boosted Poliwhirl without suffering near-fatal damage in return.

It has become perhaps equally infamous for missing Hypnosis 40% of the time and being KOed after one or two misses, leaving the Poliwhirl user significantly behind in this fast-paced, offensive tier. Games can often hinge on the result of a Hypnosis due to a highly-contested Speed tier occupied by Poliwhirl, Venomoth, Mr. Mime, and Moltres, adding to the sense of variance and "hax" in the tier. It also is OHKOed by Thunderbolt critical hits, and due to the increased crit rates in RBY, this sometimes results in a Mr. Mime or Clefable obliterating it instantly. Thus, a large portion of the debate has centered around not only whether it is too powerful, but also whether this level of variance is healthy for the tier; as Hypnosis's accuracy is 59.6%, it is a favorable but risky gamble, leading to many lopsided games where a speed tie or Hypnosis miss swings a game into a quick 6v4 or worse. The favorability of this gamble is reflected in the usage stats, as time and again Poliwhirl finds itself the fifth-most used Pokemon in RBY NU, only behind tier staples Mr. Mime, Clefable, Charizard, and Blastoise, all of whom are tenuous checks to Poliwhirl.

Those who support keeping Poliwhirl in the tier point to several critiques: firstly, it speed ties with the other premier sleeper, Venomoth, who brings a more accurate sleep move in Sleep Powder and additional support with Stun Spore, allowing it to sometimes remove two or more opposing Pokemon given good paralysis luck or critical hits. Some believe the tier is more diverse with Poliwhirl in it, pointing to niches carved out by Pokemon such as Primeape as anti-leads that are effective against Poliwhirl, but had no place in NUSD, where Poliwhirl was banned. Others believe that Poliwhirl should not be banned but rather that Sleep as a whole should be banned from the tier, stating they would prefer to see Poliwhirl legal as an Amnesia-boosting Pokemon without the variance caused by Hypnosis.

The difference between the pre-NUSD tournaments and NUSD III, where Poliwhirl was banned by the tournament hosts, is stark. While both sported heavy usage of the oft-maligned "big 5" structure (Mr. Mime, Clefable, Charizard, Blastoise, and either Poliwhirl or Venomoth), the lead metagame especially has shifted. In the Poliwhirl meta, Poliwhirl maintained over 50% usage despite competing with Venomoth for a team slot, even topping 60% in RBY PL III, where Venomoth saw a mere 17% usage. Later developments saw players try Pokemon such as Ninetales, Primeape or even Fearow as leads to try to stop Poliwhirl leads from breaking open the game, though these remained rare and the typical leads were Charizard, Poliwhirl, Venomoth, and Mr. Mime, leading to frequent speed ties on turn 1. With Poliwhirl banned, many played defaulted to leading Charizard in NUSD III, though Venomoth and Mr. Mime remained popular; Ninetales, Blastoise, and Wigglytuff also saw use. Venomoth reached high usage in NUSD III as the tier's now-untied fastest sleeper, seeing usage rates between 50-80% each week.


Due to the controversial nature of Poliwhirl in the tier and the ongoing debates about its power level and variance, a suspect test will be held to clarify the issue.

We anticipate several questions regarding this suspect test, which will be answered here:

"Why not Sleep as a whole?"
This was heavily debated by tournament organizers and the community on various platforms. It is difficult to ascertain if Sleep itself is broken in NU, as it allows for skill expression when revenge killing or choosing what Pokemon to send in by using Charizard, Mr. Mime, or other fast Pokemon to prevent free entry for Venomoth and Exeggcute. Few players would suggest Exeggcute is too powerful for the tier and Venomoth is difficult to discuss when eclipsed so heavily by Poliwhirl. Additionally, due to the Sleep ban in UU, it is expected a large number of Sleep users with varying benefits, drawbacks, and speed tiers will drop into NU as of the next UU Viability Rankings. Thus, banning Sleep feels preemptive until the impact of these new Pokemon can be evaluated. If Sleep remains hotly debated after this suspect, a Sleep suspect may be held, as in RBY UU.

"Why not ban Amnesia, or complex ban Sleep+Amnesia on the same set?"
This does not fit typical tiering policy and should not be a first resort when tiering; suspecting Poliwhirl first makes more sense.

"What about Charizard?"
While calls for Charizard to be suspected have occurred, the majority of these calls came from players who did not play the tier frequently, and the reason stated was often Fire Spin or the combination of Toxic and a fast Fire Spin user. The meta has not borne out these moves as problematic as an ever-increasing number of players shy away from Fire Spin's inconsistency. While concerns about Charizard's combination of high Speed and Swords Dance are valid, it does not appear to be contentious enough to warrant a suspect at present.

Qualifying Players & Methodology
The following requirements will determine our Voter Pool:
  • Won 2 games, or played 3 games and won at least 1, in the following team tours: NUSD III, RBYPL III
  • Placed in the Top 4 of the RBY NU Open I (RBY Grand Slam)
  • Placed in the Top 2 of the RoA's NU Spotlight Tour
  • Placed in the Top 6 of the RBY NU Cup (NU Classic)
With these requirements, the following 22 players qualify;
A 60% majority - 14 ban votes - will be required to ban Poliwhirl from RBY NU.

This thread will be open for two weeks to allow players to gather their thoughts and discuss Poliwhirl within RBY NU, after which a blind voting thread will be made for the qualifying players to cast their votes. Blind voting will open on January 27th!
 
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phoopes

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Unlike the RBY UU suspect tests, I don't have a ton to say and I am actually pro-ban lol. I feel like in games where Poliwhirl is legal, I try and not use the Big 5 + 1 structure that is so common more than most people. And I have to say, it feels like I'm handicapping myself every time whenever I try to do that. The opportunity cost of not running Poliwhirl is so great that I feel like it really hinders diversity in the tier. Sure, it chokes a decent amount of the time. But being able to go 2-for-1 or 3-for-1 is something that happens a lot more than with Venomoth, who I think is much healthier in the tier. There's still people who run Big 4 + Venomoth + 1 in the WhirlLess meta, but I think that's not necessarily as strong of a core as Big 5 + 1 in the Whirl meta. I think having that extra team slot where you have a realistic option breathes a lot of life and diversity into this tier and makes it a lot more fun and interesting. When Whirl is in the meta, it feels much more restricted in team-building, and like you kind of just have to hope luck is on your side with Hypnosis. This leads to the high variance mentioned in the OP that I think is even worse than the variance that was in UU when Sleep was legal.

Tbh, after stuff inevitably drops from UU I am probably going to be on board with suspect testing Sleep as a whole (feels more consistent with tiering philosophy IMO). But we'll cross that bridge when we get there. For now though, I think the tier is much more fun (yes this is subjective) without Whirl in it, much more diverse with Whirl gone, and I'm excited that we're seeing our first suspect test in this tier.
 

Sabelette

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I'll post my personal opinions below.

First off, my experience: aside from being on the council as of the last few months, I spammed the hell out of the ladder back in February 2022, nearly topping it, and I've played every tour that had RBY NU in it after the spotlight ladder, totaling 19 sets and 48 games, most recently ending off with a 5-2 in NUSD III. Throughout all this I've also played a good few practice games including sleepless and Whirlless practice. In other words, I think I have a good bit of experience in the tier. Anyone who knows me knows I think Whirl's gotta go and that I've been talking about it for a while now. Here are some points as to why:

Whirl's variance is bad for skill expression. This is IMO the most direct and simple reason to ban it. We wouldn’t allow a player to click a OHKO move twice to potentially win a losing game, even though it isn’t consistent. Why should we allow something that is a coinflip between "do nothing" and "most likely get 2 KOs" when counterplay to it is “hope they miss?” Should Whirl land the sleep, the only thing you can do is switch to something to fight it as it boosts, a Mime/Clef/Toise usually, and all of these always either get KOed or are left at single digit % by the time they beat Whirl unless you just luck out with paralysis or a Mime Tbolt crit after winning a speed tie. On the flip side, sometimes you just miss sleep and die instantly. Moth and Egg’s consistency and lower peaks are a lot healthier than this.

Whirl doesn't mind the opponent having paralyzed mons nearly as much as Moth does. Venomoth can do practically nothing to paralyzed Charizard (or other fires) without luck, and doesn’t do particularly well into Mime either, which has led to some interesting lines in NUSD where people preserve paralyzed Zard/Mime in the early game to sleep block. This made players consider whether they want to hit prediction Body Slams or Thunder Wave that opposing Clefable, risking leaving their Moth unable to get more than a 1 for 1 trade. Whirl lacks that concern - you simply Amnesia in their face as they come in and you’re now boosted to easily take them out, and even if they paralyze you you’re faster thanks to the stat reapplication glitch. While it’s not ideal for Whirl to take paralysis, it still should snatch at least 1.5 KOs out of this situation while Moth is limited to Psychic-ing for like 20% and has no boosts to exploit turns spent switching.

Diversity exists in a Whirlless metagame, both in compositions and in lines of play. I alluded to this in the last point but the fact that Moth minds paralysis so much before it lands sleep has led to new lines to abuse this like trading Mime Twaves then bailing out of the ditto to use something else against the opposing Mime, saving your own Mime to block, We’ve also seen Sing Clefable rise as some teams eschew Moth for a more offensive team that may not even click Sleep if the gamble isn’t needed. The lead meta, while far from settled, has seen things like Wigglytuff be surprisingly successful, even if it’s centralized around Zard. This is all early days but I firmly believe that the fact that Whirl made leads like Primeape so good was not a good thing, it was a sign of a mon that was so absurd you couldn’t risk it getting away with its bullshit on turn 1.

Whirl makes Zard sweeps easier by basically forcing a Blastoise trade. Most people will sack their Blastoise to take out the Whirl unless they have a Whirl of their own to try to counter sleep it (also a risky play). This dynamic contributes to Charizard sweeps and in the Whirlless NUSD meta it’s been a lot harder for Charizard to just destroy a game by itself, and I think it’s healthy to have the game slowed down just a tad in that way instead of every game being a potential Zard sweep.

And a couple other things I'd like to address:

What about UU drops? IMO, evaluate them when it happens. UU doesn’t have a timeline for drops yet and we can’t evaluate an imaginary meta. When they drop we can look at the state of the meta and see what suspects might be needed, but we can’t go “well Venusaur will help” and bank on that to fix the tier.

What if we ban Sleep in the future? Then unban Whirl, obviously, IMO; it’s Amnesia + Hypnosis that’s the issue, the mon itself would be mediocre without that.

Is this permanent? I really don’t think we have to treat suspects as a dramatic, irreversible thing. IMO, we can just do this because the tier needs it now, and then reevaluate as things change. Maybe the UU drops are ridiculously strong and Whirl isn’t broken in that meta unless it highrolls incredibly hard, maybe Sleep needs a ban in that meta, maybe Amnesia is banned. Who knows? I will happily support re-testing Whirl after we try out the new UU mons and evaluate the tier, but I think right now as things stand it needs to go.
 
I don't play RBY NU competitively so take what I have to say with a grain of salt, but I have been a manager for tournaments featuring this tier 3 different times (and gotten top 2 in all of them :D ). Spectating the tier and making scouts and helping with test games, Whirl meta seems extremely restricting. Players are basically forced to use Double Water teams with the intention to sac one of them to sleep while keeping the other one healthy for Charizard in the back. This coupled with the mandatory Mr. Mime and half your team is already decided which ties a lot into team diversity as mentioned by Sablette. With the little time to develop new stuff during NUSD3, teams already seem far more diverse. A lot more nuance in the lead metagame which often used to just be praying your own Poliwhirl wins the speed tie and lands Hypnosis.
 
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