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Heyo! Welcome to the thread dedicated to SM on the ongoing Smogon Premier League XIV! In this place y'all can discuss battles and metagame trends, teams and techs, share your own predictions and opinions. I will also be updating this thread with each week's replays and usage stats as well as player standings in the OP. The tournament's schedule can be found here.
Potential SM players (power rankings starters in bold)
1. Empo -- Best SM player on site. Even if you think he's one dimensional with his team selections, he will win anyway with just overwhelming medicham reads. Far most accomplished player here in terms of SM individuals -- maybe a little lacking in sample size for post-old gen team tournament matches? Doesn't really matter though. I would be shocked at anything below 7-2.
2. Skypenguin - Probably the best player for the sake of new and original teams in the tier. Skype sees the tier in an optimistic way even I can't. I don't think it's quite right to say he is a *clear* second best here in terms of in-game playing ability, but between the STour glowup and my faith in his teambuilding and prep effort, I see a likely top 3 showing.
3. Relous -- Relous to me is above the mean both in his team selection and his play. That may sound like lower praise than it really is, but I mean it exclusively positively. There is a lot of relief in having a player who will always play top-third Pokemon while using a top-third team. I feel okay about predicting a top 3 record.
4. Lusa -- Lusa always gives me a run for my money in game just with his confidence in knowing how to make gas-pedal reads be it from already ahead or behind. I might even rate Lusa's in-game ability over Skype's despite the defeat to him in STour round one -- to me the bigger death sentence is my fundamental disagreement in his team choices. It works for him, but if I can't copy a Lusa team and feel A1 walking into a game, I think that speaks more to the builder than the player.
5. Emforbes -- He is the best VGC player in North America. Sun and Moon is already a read heavy format -- I'd rate his gas-pedal skills up there with Empo. He lacks specific SM results to earn a higher ranking, and I don't know how up to date anyone on his team is with modern SM to prep him for these matches, but I think I genuinely rate Emilio the 2nd best battler in the field. The record will be in the level of effort.
6. umbry -- Really good at playing long drawn out games and not ever letting herself get on the backfoot... my only issue with this is look at what I said about every player above about being good at finding openings with reads and aggression. Unless things have changed since our last outing about her tendencies in SM, I expect the teams here to be somewhat exploitable fat-stuffs every week. Prove me wrong on that angle and I think umbry's playing ability can maybe breach her into the top half.
7. Raptor -- I just don't recall seeing much of Raptor in SM in the past couple years. He performs above average in other formats, so to me that levels out to average in SM. Unfortunately, average in a pool this stacked can only score you about a 7th place. The biggest upside here is the innovative potential from njnp and CTC. If he can gel well, maybe he can get by.
8. reyscarface -- Experience goes a long way, but I can't really say much about his actual battling in the tier. There is enough modernity on the Tyrants to help rey be ready with a good team every week too, so I wouldn't be too worried in that regard. He looked alright in PU this SCL, so I suppose I probably take him to easily play better than the person under him and at least challenge the people higher.
9. TDNT -- I feel like an asshole saying to anyone "I haven't seen your name in a tournament before" because it is somewhat of a copout way to rank... but I have not seen TDNT's name in a tournament before. Tough pool to try and make your name in.
editing on:
These would be my unadjusted W1 predictions just by ranking, not taking the actual matchup into consideration:
SM OU: umbry vs Raptor
SM OU: reyscarface vs Relous
SM OU: TDNT vs emforbes
SM OU: Skypenguin vs Lusa
Highlight has to be Skype vs Lusa (even over Empo/Ojama) for the Smogon Tour rematch. We didn't get an SM game there so this can count for that.
I'm not sure if there's going to be an SM predictions thread again this year (it would be nice if there was and I would be cool running it if that's allowed/people want it) but I'll also just throw my week 1 predictions here:
[SCO] umbry vs Raptor [RUI]
[TIG] Ojama vs Empo [BIG] - personal highlight, although Skype vs Lusa could very well be the better game
[TYR] reyscarface vs Relous [WOL]
[SHA] TDNT vs emforbes [CLA]
[RAI] Skypenguin vs Lusa [CRY]
Hi everyone, just to let you know, I started an SPL XIV SM predictions thread! I'll also be personally offering a $25 cash prize to the winner of the prediction contest, so feel free to join!
Highlights : compared to the last year's Week 1, this year begins with more offensively approached teams being used. Gliscor and Chansey — the two which had been seeing considerable usage during SPL XIII from the very start — now have taken a backseat, with general preference of players given to different, faster structures this time. Curious to see whether this tendency will carry onto the next weeks or not! : Relous has shown an interesting tech of Punishment Weavile in his game. The team Relous used might not offer enough pressure to keep fatter win conditions like Reuniclus under control, so Punishment provides an emergency mean to stop them at their tracks. In this week's game specifically, Weavile managed to reliably revenge kill a snowballing Magearna of reyscarface without much sacrifices. : Lusa surprises us with the unusual Tapu Koko set choice. Nature's Madness only really exists on Tapu Fini nowadays, but Tapu Koko can use it as a midground option to force damage onto any switch-in. Meanwhile, Iapapa Berry enables Tapu Koko to get sorta second life without having to sacrifice a moveslot for Roost. Its usage on the xtra$hine HO, which Lusa brought, might be having more time and opportunities for Tapu Koko to set Electric Terrain up for its fellow partner Hawlucha.
Game Analysis Week 1 — [RAI] Skypenguin vs Lusa [CRY] — Skypenguin brings a bulky offensive team featuring definitely not the most common Pokemon in Crawdaunt. Together with Volcarona, they create a powerful offensive core scary both for faster and fatter playstyles. Mega Diancie provides additional firepower source to compliment Crawdaunt. These three are supported by the backbone of Rotom-W and Ferrothorn, which hardly can be called passive and therefore fits the team greatly, while the last slot is filled up by one of the most common glues — Choice Scarf Landorus-T. — Lusa decides do roll with one of the most recognizable teams in SM OU, the xtra$hine hyper offense. This infamous six is known by everyone, yet powerful presences of all the threats in various matchups and their amazing offensive synergy, further supported by the classic solid VoltTurn core of Landorus-T and Magearna, makes this team work during all stages of the metagame. Truly the timeless team, huh.
The matchup seems quite similar for both sides in terms of their tools. Both have a strong breaker almost impossible for the opponent to switch into, both have a setup threat capable of overrunning the entire opposing team, and both have a VoltTurn core to keep up the momentum. Both Skypenguin and Lusa must have had a gameplan which includes strong positioning control: Skypenguin needed his Rotom-W to be healthy enough for Hawlucha, which should not be given an opportunity to pick up a Swords Dance, while Lusa would have desired his own Stealth Rock up very much to limit Volcarona as much as possible, in order to not let it use Quiver Dance.
The game starts off with Skypenguin leading Volcarona, seeking to apply pressure from the very beginning, and Lusa leading Tapu Koko in an attempt to gain momentum early. Forced to react on the setup threat immediately, Lusa goes for a midground play of Nature's Madness — quite a rare sight on Tapu Koko sets — and gets guaranteed 50% damage on the incoming Landorus-T. Right the next turn Skypenguin places their Volcarona on the field again, versus Landorus-T this time. Seeing the chance to remove Lusa's Stealth Rock setter, Skypenguin reveals Inferno Overdrive of their Volcarona — not a typical Z-Move choice either — but misses just a couple percents from killing Landorus-T. Lusa, on the other hand, decides to halt Volcarona immediately and uses Earthquake instead of Stealth Rock, leaving Volcarona in the Fake Out range.
Lusa then trades a good chunk of Tapu Koko's health for keeping Landorus-T alive and so forces Volcarona out, only to get the Volt Switch blocked by a strongly weakened Choice Scarf Landorus-T of Skypenguin. Lusa probably did not expect Skypenguin risking their only speed control option, but they took that risk and were rewarded gaining the upper hand this turn. This sequence opens up Skypenguin the opportunity to get Stealth Rock up, which essentially killed Lusa's Landorus-T and limited Kyurem-B's entry opportunities. The hazards were put up via a bold play of staying Diancie into Magearna, which Volt Switched out as Skypenguin likely expected when was going to make this move. Keeping Diancie non-Megad was a correct decision as well which paid off later.
That's where Lusa finally introduces their Mega Medicham. Skypenguin decides to sack Ferrothorn as they thought it was least useful in the entire team. That enables them to position Volcarona active again and attempt to faciliate a sweep using Quiver Dance. Mindful of the possibility, however, Lusa weighs removing Volcarona over keeping Mega Medicham healthy and stays in, hitting the moth. Skypenguin forces out Mega Medicham and gets Diancie on the field, only for Lusa to sack their Landorus-T to Stealth Rock and bring Mega Medicham in once more. Skypenguin opts for a reckless decision again, that is putting Crawdaunt under an expected Fake Out, after which they got the slightly favorable 62,5% roll of Aqua Jet killing Mega Medicham, which Lusa decided to not switch out. Though, I struggle to see the reason of Lusa picking Mega Medicham over Magearna to put against Diancie, since Magearna might have landed a strong hit onto any of Skypenguin's Pokemon for a lesser cost invariantly of their play.
Crawdaunt invites another hole breaker of Lusa in Kyurem-B. Skypenguin becomes forced to play around it by repeatedly breaking down its Substitute via VoltTurning with Rotom-W and Landorus-T. During that, Lusa burns their Z-Move into Rotom-W, activating its Iapapa Berry and revealing the lack of Ice Beam, the place of which presumably is held by Hone Claws. This is where Skypenguin's earlier choice of not Mega Evolving Diancie comes detrimental to the game state. The increased bulk of its regular form enables Diancie to eat Fusion Bolt rather comfortably, break Kyurem-B's Substitute and Mega Evolve the following turn, obtaining a new speed tier and removing yet another threat of Lusa from the game.
Facing Tapu Koko again (by the way, this might be the first time I have ever seen Iapapa Berry Tapu Koko), Skypenguin goes for the safe route this time and sacks Mega Diancie in order to react on Lusa's further play, which was Volt Switching into Magearna. The following turn showcases how insane some Pokemon might be: Crawdaunt OHKOd a healthy Magearna with a neutral Crabhammer after Stealth Rock. This roll seems to have been quite unfavorable for Skypenguin, and not getting it would've made their situation noticeably harsher but, I guess, not unwinnable. As Lusa switches Tapu Koko in again, Skypenguin is essentially left with no other options but going into Landorus-T, since they definitely needed both Rotom-W and Crawdaunt to reliably win against Hawlucha. Hence, the Volt Switch from Lusa remains unclear for me. My current assumption is that Lusa's Tapu Koko just didn't have any move to kill Landorus-T, which surely would be weird; but after seeing Nature's Madness and Iapapa Berry, who knows? Either way, after eating Volt Switch with Landorus-T, Skypenguin uses Explosion and generates perfect conditions for winning versus Lusa's Hawlucha, sealing the game.
Next Week Matchups
~
[WOL] Relous vs Gondra [SHA]
[BIG] Empo vs Skypenguin [RAI]
[RUI] Booty vs reyscarface [TYR]
[CRY] Lusa vs umbry [SCO]
[CLA] emforbes vs Ojama [TIG]
Highlights : Magearna managed to hold a huge number of 60% usage for both weeks, and there are no signs of any huge downfall in the future! This doesn't come as a big surprise, it is known that Magearna is one of the best Pokemon in SM OU — partly because of how versatile it can be. We have seen Magearna appearing on all teamstyles from hyper offenses to exceptionally fat teams, and with various sets, including the classic Assault Vest, a Defense-invested Z-Move pivot by emforbes, and different iterations of Calm Mind — even going up to SubCM featured by reyscarface. : Mega Latias has risen from only 1 appearance first week to a number of 5 — half of total — this week! That demonstrates the more balanced orientation of Week 2 compared to Week 1, as well as the fact Mega Latias's typical teammates like Gliscor and Toxapex naturally have made bigger showings as well. : yet again Relous packs a curious tech on their team, that is Cosmic Power Clefable. Coupled with Calm Mind, it can turn Clefable into both powerful and bulky setup threat, sometimes being unable to break past without a timely crit. During the game, this Clefable was close to turning the tides of the battle by initiating setup and forcing Gondra to react on it; however, Gondra managed to halt the setup in time and get through. Worth noting that Clefable was running Magic Guard over more ladder-style Unaware.
Game Analysis Week 2 — [CLA] emforbes vs Ojama [TIG] — by Ojama's side, there is quite standard but surely effective team featuring the offensive core of Kartana and Tapu Bulu, known as Grass spam. However, this squad takes a more balanced approach opposed to more common faster builds around the core. Mega Latias, Heatran, Toxapex and Landorus-T together form a solid yet not passive backbone here, with Tapu Bulu not only providing firepower but contributing to it as well. — emforbes rolls with a seemingly clunky team with a simple idea: pack a couple frail offensive threats and support them with a formidable defensive backbone. The most curious part here is the choice of progress makers. While undeniably an issued Pokemon, Blacephalon packs some huge special firepower handled only by the few, and it is paired with Greninja which compliments the offensive part and brings some degree of uncertainty due to its wide-known flexibility with sets. The remains of the team are filled with truly fat Pokemon which do a good job at protecting and supporting the core of Blacephalon & Greninja.
The preview looks favored to emforbes for multiple reasons. First, Mega Latias is one of the Pokemon good at handling Grass spam due to numerous factors, and the balanced style of Ojama's team with limited breaking options doesn't help the case. Magearna can also tank some hits from Kartana and Tapu Bulu reasonably well, especially since, as revealed later, emforbes has invested it to Defense, and to counteract Heatran emforbes has Gliscor — one of the best answers to it. Second, Blacephalon looks powerful into Ojama's team since nothing there resists Shadow Ball spam, with only Heatran being 3HKO'd and only Mega Latias and Kartana being faster. Depending on its set, Greninja might also prove annoying in this matchup. To be fair, though, depending on the Tapu Bulu set Ojama's matchup might be better than described — if it packs Megahorn, it can crush Mega Latias and dispose of the main defensive obstacle.
The battle begins with Ojama leading Toxapex and emforbes going Greninja, the latter of which immediately switches out of the unfavorable matchup into Chansey. After trading hazards, Ojama manages to bring Chansey down to half HP during a number of turns, leaving it quite hard for emforbes to use Chansey unchallenged in the future. Ojama putting his own Stealth Rock makes emforbes Defog all the hazards away with Gliscor, which opens up a possibility for Ojama to introduce Tapu Bulu. As it picks up a Swords Dance, emforbes reacts with Magearna, which Ojama decides to not hit but instead switch out into Heatran; this is a safe decision likely aimed to scout whether Magearna can threaten Tapu Bulu back or not. Magearna doesn't reveal any dangerous move and Volt Switches out, however, enabling emforbes to position their Greninja versus Heatran.
Forcing out Ojama's Heatran, emforbes attempts to make use of it via going Chansey in order to regain its HP. This was likely made under a presumption Ojama would've switched into Toxapex as the safest midground option against Greninja, but he decided to keep the pressure up and brought in Tapu Bulu instead, cutting emforbes short of an opportunity to heal Chansey. That also came with emforbes not revealing their Greninja ability. The sequence of Magearna coming into a +2 Tapu Bulu repeats, but unlike the first time Ojama stays in and strikes with Superpower, putting a dent on Magearna which would then go a long way at keeping it pressured.
After taking a Superpower, Magearna pivots out from Tapu Bulu, granting emforbes a free switch into Blacephalon. As it just clicks Shadow Ball, Ojama decides to eat it with Heatran — the only Pokemon on their team able to survive two hits from Blacephalon. Ojama then opts for the safest option of Earth Power, not wishing to give Blacephalon any chance to stay healthy, but emforbes goes for the safe route as well and switches into Gliscor. The next turn from Ojama isn't as safe, though — he decides to stay in with Heatran against Gliscor and attacks with Magma Storm, which could prove annoying for every other Pokemon. That turn, emforbes U-turns Gliscor out in order to not give Tapu Bulu any free turns as Ojama seemed to expect, then making Greninja take a Magma Storm. Ojama's following decision turned out to be critical for his further gameplay: seeing an opportunity to position Tapu Bulu in again, he does that, only for emforbes to reveal a Protean Greninja and kill Tapu Bulu with Gunk Shot. This move costed Ojama a huge source of pressure, leaving him only with Choice Scarf Kartana to force kills. The switch into Tapu Bulu indeed was quite rushed, since Greninja's set was unknown yet, and the most reliable move would've been scouting it with Toxapex, given Greninja has been trapped with Magma Storm.
Ojama's gameplan gets to two main points: to keep Stealth Rock up and to force damage on Magearna and Mega Latias, because Kartana wins after beating them down. He has been executing that via, for example, draining Mega Latias's Roost PPs via spamming Knock Off starting Turn 31 and consistently setting up Stealth Rock against Gliscor, using its PP advantage as well as inability of Gliscor to meaningfully touch Landorus-T. Gliscor forced to Roost also opens Ojama another opportunity to safely bring Kartana in and start spamming Leaf Blade which, by the way, has a higher crit chance that might matter in a long game. Gliscor's Defog also could be prevented with Taunt from Heatran as shown on Turn 73. To handle Kartana, emforbes doesn't only use Mega Latias but Magearna as well: on Turn 69 it absorbs Knock Off and then proceeds to recover with Pain Split. Magearna is also emforbes's safest switch-in for Ojama's Mega Latias, and the latter player abuses this fact by doubling into Heatran as on Turns 54 & 79, accumulating Stealth Rock damage on Magearna. It is worth to note that emforbes is not playing only a reactive game but attempts to make progress as well, abusing Ojama's Landorus-T setting Stealth Rock by bringing Greninja or Blacephalon on the field. On turn 67 he made Ojama sack Toxapex to Shadow Ball spam, leaving his team without any reliable Greninja switch-in.
The game suddenly ends at Turn 82. With a series of double switches Ojama trims down emforbes's Magearna to quite a low HP level and positions Kartana against it. Likely attempting to cover both cases of Magearna staying and Mega Latias incoming, Ojama uses Leaf Blade, but Magearna survives it at 2% and kills Kartana back with Twinkle Tackle. That showcases emforbes having Magearna invested in Defense quite sufficiently and Ojama apparently lacking Smart Strike on Kartana. Ojama not expecting a physical investment into Magearna might have been another reason he went for Leaf Blade instead of Sacred Sword. Left without any sufficient progress-making tools, Ojama forfeits.
Next Week Matchups
~
[SCO] umbry vs Empo [BIG]
[RAI] Skypenguin vs emforbes [CLA]
[RUI] Booty vs Lusa [CRY]
[TIG] Ojama vs Relous [WOL]
[TYR] reyscarface vs Gondra [SHA]
Alpha Ruiners: Raptor, Booty, Eternal Spirit, pj, valuez, njnp
Congregation of the Classiest: emforbes, suapah, Jytcampbell, Sylvi
Dragonspiral Tyrants: reyscarface, Will of Fire, Leo, Chaitanya
Cryonicles: Lusa, ima, Vileman, Leru
Wi-fi Wolfpack: Relous, Luigi, Santu, ArcticBreeze
Team Raiders: Skypenguin, bbeeaa, false, Ash KetchumGamer
Stark Sharks: TDNT, Gondra, robjr, 3d
Ever Grande BIGs: Empo, IPF, devin, Monai
Indie Scooters: umbry, London Beats, Gefährlicher Random, Yelodash
Circus Maximus Tigers: Ojama, Finchinator, Fc, c0mp
— Skypenguin brings a bulky offensive team featuring definitely not the most common Pokemon in Crawdaunt. Together with Volcarona, they create a powerful offensive core scary both for faster and fatter playstyles. Mega Diancie provides additional firepower source to compliment Crawdaunt. These three are supported by the backbone of Rotom-W and Ferrothorn, which hardly can be called passive and therefore fits the team greatly, while the last slot is filled up by one of the most common glues — Choice Scarf Landorus-T.
— Lusa decides do roll with one of the most recognizable teams in SM OU, the xtra$hine hyper offense. This infamous six is known by everyone, yet powerful presences of all the threats in various matchups and their amazing offensive synergy, further supported by the classic solid VoltTurn core of Landorus-T and Magearna, makes this team work during all stages of the metagame. Truly the timeless team, huh.
— by Ojama's side, there is quite standard but surely effective team featuring the offensive core of Kartana and Tapu Bulu, known as Grass spam. However, this squad takes a more balanced approach opposed to more common faster builds around the core. Mega Latias, Heatran, Toxapex and Landorus-T together form a solid yet not passive backbone here, with Tapu Bulu not only providing firepower but contributing to it as well.
