Tournament SPL X: RU Discussion

[EviGaro]

Approved by MrAldo bop

With SPL X officially underway as we recently went through the auction, this thread will be used for anything RU related to the tournament! Be it potential ru players, games played, predictions, how shifts influenced team picks (that one might be a doozy), feel free to use this thread. The official schedule can be found here, and here are the teams, minus one trade happening but it shouldn't influence the ru tier atm:

Potential RU players (Current starters in italic):

Wolfpack: Eternally, Welli0u, Santu
Raiders: SPACE FORCE meeps, Cynara, Kingler12345
Tyrants: aim, We Three Kings, Christo, Accelgor
Ruiners: Pearl, RedEmption, passion
BIGs: Kushalos, KW, soulgazer, Sage
Tigers: Eternal Spirit, Pohjis, HarrisIsAwesome
Sharks: Teddeh, Lycans, Tricking, EviGaro
Classiest: Nat, yjh971203, Shiba
Cryonicles: Ajna, Leru, Arifeen
Scooters: robjr, Aeroblactyl, Lighthouses

Replays:

Week 1
[CONG] Nat vs Cynara [RAID]
[CRYO] Ajna vs Welli0u [WOLF]
[RUIN] RedEmption vs EviGaro [SHRK]
[TYRN] aim vs Pohjis [TGRS]
[BIGS] KW vs Aeroblacktyl [SCTR]

Week 2

[RUIN] RedEmption vs aim [TYRN]
[SCTR] Aeroblacktyl vs Nat [CONG]
[BIGS] KW vs EviGaro [SHRK]
[WOLF] Welli0u vs Kingler12345 [RAID]
[TGRS] Pohjis vs Ajna [CRYO]

Week 3

[WOLF] Welli0u vs Aeroblacktyl [SCTR]
[CRYO] Ajna vs aim [TYRN]
[BIGS] KW vs passion [RUIN]
[RAID] Kingler12345 vs Pohjis [TGRS]
[SHRK] EviGaro vs Nat [CONG]

Week 4

SCTR] lighthouses vs Pohjis [TGRS]
[CRYO] Ajna vs Kingler12345 [RAID]
[WOLF] Welli0u vs EviGaro [SHRK]
[RUIN] passion vs Nat [CONG]
[TYRN] aim vs KW [BIGS]

Standings:

Ajna: 4-2
EviGaro: 4-2
Aeroblacktyl: 2-1
aim: 3-3
kingler12345: 2-2
Nat: 4-2
Pohjis: 3-3
Welli0u: 4-2
Ultraballz: 1-0
passion: 1-3
KW: 1-4
Cynara: 0-1
Sage :0-1
RedEmption: 0-2

 

[-Tsunami-]

due to popular demand...all the way from the 3rd world IT IS MACHU PIKACHU CONQUERER METABEAST'S UNBIASED POWER RANKINGS
the numbers in parentheses will be the placement differential compared to my previous RU PRs for snake.

1. Ajna (+1)
Little needs to be said here. After reuniting with his good friend teal6 for what seems like the 15th tour row and his price hitting a record high, Ajna returns to the team tournament scene in prime position to succeed. There are really no signs that the man will fall off his throne, and it can't hurt having the help of one of the most active and useful teammates of all time in ABR. There's little reason to expect regression as long as his motivation remains intact.

2. Nat (+3)
Nat seems to have put the disaster that was Snake 1 behind her, pulling off two very solid performances in a row. Perhaps starmaster isn't the only one who falters under Tony Flygon lol. Nat is a solid player who can utilize many team styles, making it hard to prepare for her. She popularized Golisopod alongside our fallen comrade Omfuga, and it is her ability to shape metagame trends such as this that should help her fair well against this RU pool.

3. aim (unranked)
The former clan leader of Mass>Destruction and YouTube sensation Joey finds himself in RU for this edition of SPL (at least for now). A man with nearly unparalleled versatility, Joey's past experiences should help him rebound against this player pool. After the SPL 9 Cryonicles made the baffling decision of paying over 20k for this man just to put him in the variance machine that is the thinking gen, Joey's stock seems to have fallen a bit. 15.5k in my opinion is a very solid price for aim, especially in a lower tier. I think his aggressive playstyle will pay dividends against this playerbase, and I'll trust him to come thru for now.

4. Pohjis (unranked)
Pohjis to me is probably a slightly above average player? maybe? He has had a great amount of recent success, stockpiling ribbons in irrelevant tours, including the RU circuit. Time will tell if this will help him thrive in SPL. While I think his current price is definitely an overpay (didn't think managers were as insane as Durza), he comes into the tournament with a solid shot of living up to his price tag, as the RU player pool in general leaves much to be desired. Omfuga was the first person on the Pohjis is good at Ubers hype train, so maybe this will translate to SPL RU success. Personally, I'm more confident in him than anyone below this point, and think he will perform decently enough.

5. Welliou (unranked)
As I stared at the remaining player pool, I realized how hard it was going to be to rank these goons. There's a lot of unproven talent here, especially in RU. The Well is someone I've never been particularly high on, and probably would have said he was in the "below average to average" range a few months ago. He has participated in a decent amount of team tours, so there's that. He also had a very admirable showing in the most recent Smogon Tour, upsetting SoulWind and showcasing some of the talent than made the john / cbb / jirachee era of the scooters draft him. Against this playerbase, I think he can do a decent job, especially with Tony's support.

6. EviGaro (unranked)
Not gonna lie, I did not think EviGaro was gonna be over 10k in SPL...but here we are. I value official team tour / individual tour performance far more than other factors for these rankings, in addition to my perceived skill of the players in question; EviGaro obviously doesn't really possess any of the former, making it relatively hard to rank her. She did almost win the RU Circuit, so there's that I guess. She obviously possesses a great deal of metagame knowledge, and has been playing this tier for a while. I would normally rank her lower but I have less faith in the people below this point so.

7. KW (+3)
KW obviously finessed people as Snake progressed, demolishing Ajna with a series of many successful predictions. His ranking has increased by 3 compared to the previous ranking due to his performance, but I still need to see more from him before ranking him any higher. KW is like the RBY or DPP of Pokemon players...he could easily perform very well or get completely exposed. This is due to what has been described by many camps as an overly "clicky" playstyle that results in many different possible outcomes. Due to his latest official tour performance, however, and familiarity with the tier, he should at least be ranked here.

8. MoP (+0)
The GODFATHER is back yet again. MoP had a solid Snake performance, albeit in a very small 3-game sample size, and potentially made dodmen quit. However, Post-SPL 8 ShakeItUp is never going to rank an old player that highly until he demonstrates consistent performance across multiple tours, so here we are. If MoP can once again display his prior battling prowess, he could easily shake up this tournament due to the poor playerbase quality compared to other tiers.

9. Cynara (unranked)
Sarah is an Ubers main I believe that finds herself here after STAG caused the tier to be removed from the tournament. She's honestly a bit of a wild card after a mediocre Snake, and I'm unsure how much RU she actually plays. She also doesn't really have that much team support, so that may make her job a little bit more difficult.

10. RedEmption (unranked)
Another OU? I think? main cast off into the depths of RU due to a dearth of options. I honestly have no idea why passion isn't starting, but here we are. This guy did not seem very competent in Snake, and I definitely witnessed him playing some pretty awful games. Due to the poor playerbase, however, there is an outside chance he performs decently. However, I will be surprised if passion isn't starting at some point or if Pearl isn't forced to switch to RU.

 

[passion]

yo honestly i really love and appreciate all of you pieces of absolute trash who have a relatively solid understanding of what the ru meta is and even more ot a clue of how to fucking play pokemon at a mildly decent level. -Tsunami-, please keep your opinions right here because everybody is interested in what your undrafted-ass has to say. Cynara, i think you are "well versed in the metagame" you are literally in contentions for the ru council with me. also while I am talking about "being a good player" you would never have sacked your magearna to excadrill and choked an unlosable game! EviGaro you are most certainly one to talk about me when you have been a fucking amazing teammate to team canada/central for years now and your knowledge of the ru tier is completely amazing. Ajna go back to retirement with Feliburn you not ghosted piece of nice person good player. I sincerely hope all of you benchwarmers get a chance to play this season and also enjoy the formidable pokemon-playing that i and KW are gonna display.

 

[KW]

Some introspective analysis of the field.

As the tier reaches its maximal state of chaos, in terms of the varied nature of threats prevalent in the metagame and general instability of easily definable team archetypes and structures, the SPL playerbase has become a somewhat puzzling amalgam of mainers from RU, various collected lower tiers, and B rated OU players. This is by no means a bad thing! In the process of creative destruction (and to be sure this RU SPL should see 2-3 careers ended if the teams keep there players in their spots long enough) I imagine a newly defined metagame texture will emerge, similar to that after the Golisopod/Tyrantrum redefinition resulting from the last SPL. Whether or not this metagame will remain stable until the end of the generation where the tier is preserved for posterity is another dubious proposition from either end, but one likely more certain following the outcome of this SPL.

I will not bother to speak of players of whom my knowledge is purely secondhand and regurgitate the same tired analysis offered previously, rather I will attempt here to offer a somewhat nuanced and fresh perspective of the player elements I am familiar with. Everything I say should be taken with several grains of salt, however, given that my analysis is informed by the dubious biases of my "clicker mentality" and such.

Starting in no particular order with aim, I think he has great potential in the field, despite prior poor SPL records and a notable lack in tier experience. Aim is a veteran of the game, able to gain both initiative offensively and defensively by punishing obvious predictions. From what I've seen, he is able to understand the subtlety of sequencing aggressive and defensive plays, and his experience generally makes him better at the fundamental of higher level games, guessing what his opponent will do, than most in this pool probably are. That being said, Aim being out of touch with building will leave him blind to a lot of the metagame subtleties, which could leave him in a tough spot with more active and involved builders. The biggest problem, however, which I think limits Aim to likely a 5-4 record rather than a 7-2 is that he's far to well adjusted as a person. Aim lacks the various pathology prevelant in most of smogon's "greatest" players. He does not feel like he has something to prove, he does not relish the psychological pain his victory will inflict on his given opponent. And thus, I predict a middling performance.

The twin pillars of the respected RU mainers Ajna and Nat, are of course predicted to excel. Nat is slightly higher ceiling in my opinion due to the potential illegibility of some of her play sequences and effective ability to create great teams out of primarily mediocre mons, but Ajna, while bound to a more apparent logic in his plays and builds, is arguably the more consistent of the two as evidenced by his stellar snake performance records. I think Ajna probably benefits from the metagame's high threat ceiling more than Nat, as evidenced by his willingness to veer towards more aggressive techs in his build. I think Nat will struggle to implement the subtle metagame redefinition that have served her well thus far, given the amorphous nature of the meta. Both will likely due very well, however.

RedEmption, the more motivated counterpart to Aim, judging by his seriousness in ruwc, has the potential to do well. His playing is solid enough, and furthermore I suspect that he is tormented by the judgement that deemed his play 2nd tier, shaky, or not consistent in Snake. I suspect he desires to do well. He may, however, lack the raw skill to overcome more experienced players in the tier. We'll see.

EviGaro is inexperienced yada yada yada ya... whatever. Her building is inconsistent but that's more of a plus than anything in this type of metagame. If she truly wants to win, she'll go 6-3+, but if not it will probably be a disappointing first and last SPL for her. She has the playing ability to hold her own in the field no doubt, but whether she has the will is entirely questionable to me.

MoP probably does not care. I don't think he'll go positive.

Pohjis has proven himself a model of consistency, dedication, and ability with his various circuit performances this year, which means I don't think he'll sink negative at all, but a strong positive record might be difficult given his inability to build and virtually zero in team support. He can beat the worse players, and play at the better players level, but those with a long history in RU will probably have an edge with experience. His utility in many tiers also means he probably won't stick around if things go too south for him. Regardless, I think he is motivated, and will do well this SPL.

As for other players who might take over after week 1 starters, Santu has some good instincts and playing ability, but probably can't cut it positive because his longform gameplay isn't polished enough. If lighthouses dares venture back into the RU arena again they could be decent. LH is able to play well turn to turn, but I think is passive in their overall gameplay and somewhat choke prone in SM RU. A couple weeks subbed in, however, could redeem a mostly poor snake draft if they commit more than they have. Pearl is an all around very solid player, if for whatever reason they decide to take a reprieve from UU, though I don't anticipate that to happen.

If I didn't mention you I either know nothing about you, or thought it was too unlikely you'd end up slotted in RU at some point. If you disagree with my takes dw about it, I got 5-0'd by a Sawsbuck so I'm probably too garbage to worry about anyway. Just wanted to add to this thread before it wilted away.

 

[aim]

ive been dissected

 

[Dollainthewoods]

ive been dissected

oof

 

[Windsong]

RU is looking pretty solid this year. I'm a fan of everyone that got drafted, and genuinely think this is one of the strongest SPL RU fields I've seen in the last seven years of SPL. Some thoughts on a few of my top (non-KW) picks:

Nat is obviously a fantastic player, and ties with Ajna for my top (non-KW) ranking. She's been consistent across team tours, and knows how to adjust her play and teambuilding to handle different opponents, which is critical in SPL. I also think she's the most difficult player to prep against; you don't know if she's gonna bring some wildly creative setup or go with bog standard offense and just pilot it perfectly. She doesn't have much RU support behind her, but that probably matters less for Nat than any other player.

Ajna is a little more predictable than Nat, but I think his aggressive playstyle will be great this year. He's had exceptionally strong runs in the past couple months of RU tours and the man's going into this SPL determined to make a splash. I think he's grown a ton as a player since last year; his older play was super aggressive and fared really well against players who weren't ready for it, but kinda collapsed during SPL9, and that's just not gonna happen here. tbh I'm glad I'm not playing this year because Ajna would probably pull something like this on me. He's also got fantastic support in Arifeen.

Pohjis is a player I was pretty hot on when looking through potential Bigs RUers. He knows how to reliably make correct reads and avoid unnecessary risks, and is obviously coming off a fantastic run in the circuit. I think his play is really well suited for SPL; I don't think he's gonna pull off insanely flashy wins, but he tends to play endgames perfectly. Of the top players, he's probably the one I'd be most shocked to see go negative.

EviGaro is one of the "new ruers" who SV so eloquently describes above. I was very impressed by her circuit games (including a couple she pulled off which I coulda sworn were unwinnable), and definitely has the capacity for a strong SPL run. She obviously knows the tier well, and I think she'll benefit a ton from practice games with Tricking. The only potential issue I can see for Evi is the pressure of the big stage--highly regarded new SPL players tend to go in with high expectations, and keeping a level head throughout games isn't easy with half the site watching.

Aeroblacktyl is really good and probably the most underrated player this year. He's got solid support in lighthouses (at least for test games--not really sure if Diogo builds RU anymore), and is one of the more unpredictable players in the pool. I'd expect MoP to go positive, but throw in the caveat that if scooters as a whole fall apart, I don't really expect him to set aside much time for the tour. Still, great creative player who's got a literal lifetime of mons experience behind him.

No major thoughts on the rest of the RU starters. I don't think this year will be all that kind to the non-RU mains; this isn't SPL5 where you could toss a bog standard RU team to any strong player and have them do well--all the RU mains are really good overall players, and meta knowledge and creative teambuilding are going to be critical, especially with the recent changes in the tier.

I'd also like to extend an apology to eifo--I know I played a big role in talking you into signing up, and you're a player I seriously believe would've had a strong run. We didn't anticipate getting KW for as low as he went, and we had to make a few budget adjustments mid-auction that prevented us from picking up a couple subs we'd hoped to grab. I really hope this doesn't leave you with an awful taste for team tours; the drafting processes aren't ideal, and I fully expect you to do well in this coming year of official and circuit tours and be a strong pick by the time snake comes around.

----- Late addendum

I'd also like to specifically mention Luthier and MrAldo, both of whom I considered possible options for our RU slot, but for various reasons neither of whom ended up being our pick. You guys are good players with great tier knowledge, and I'm gonna tell all of you both: go out and make a splash in some RU individuals this year. Luthier, you came close last year--win the damn RU open this time around. MrAldo, translate your exceptional meta knowledge and teambuilding skill into the fantastic circuit runs you're capable of.

 

[lighthouses]

Good guy windsong

 

[EviGaro]

Week one is up! Here are the matchups for RU: https://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/smogon-premier-league-x-week-1.3645741/

Nat vs Cynara
Ajna vs welli0u
RedEmption vs EviGaro
aim vs Pohjis
KW vs Aeroblacktyl

Interesting matches all around imo, solid contrast of players in all of them really. Ajna vs welli0u is probably my highlight due to the thinkermen behind both builds, as well as this falling in the same week of their seasonals matchup that I quite obviously did not fix no matter how suspicious Ajna's bad luck in circuit is

 

[lighthouses]

Nat vs Cynara - i dont buy into the whole 'idk this person therefore bad' thing, but i need to see something at least
Ajna vs welli0u
RedEmption vs EviGaro
aim vs Pohjis - i actually watch some aim videos, specifically the live narration of tour matches since thats more my thing and ive been getting the feeling that hes kinda off as of 'recently', has really good midgame reads as per usual but is kinda lacking in analysis of the overall picture at times, letting mons he needs healthy take damage and only noticing its a problem later and stuff like that. That said the last videos of this kind that ive watched from him were from a bit ago and theres no way of knowing if he will bounce back or not, but even then pohjis is really hot right now.

i have a feeling that kw vs mop is gonna be hilarious
hf everyone

 

[Meru]

Nat vs Cynara - hahahaha
Ajna vs welli0u - ha
RedEmption vs EviGaro - h
aim vs Pohjis - haha
KW vs Aeroblacktyl - hahahahaha

 

[rylon]

Week two is up! Here are the matchups for our goat tier: https://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/smogon-premier-league-x-week-2.3645991/

RedEmption vs aim
Aeroblacktyl vs Nat
KW vs EviGaro
Welli0u vs Cynara
Pohjis vs Ajna

Good battles in general, my highlight for this week is Pohjis vs. Ajna, due to the caliber of both and playstyle, in this week Redemption will look for his name, and nothing else, ty

 

[Windsong]

Some [friendly] thoughts on each of the past week's games. I will not mention anything specific regarding the conduct of any players or any of the spectators, but would like to give a friendly reminder to everyone participating in this SPL in any capacity that we play this game for fun and if you feel the need to be toxic, don't do so in a way that seriously hurts other people.

Nat vs Cynara
Straight from team preview, this game was going to be a one-sided nightmare. The only real options that would give Cynara a shot were a combination of Toxic (or Taunt) Lix, Trick Garde, and Taunt Noivern. As it turned out, Cynara was running all those sets, but the matchup still makes it really difficult to convert a win--basically she'd need to get rocks up, poison the Mantine, then double around a ton to prevent Articuno from ever getting the free Heal Bell turn and Gligar from ever getting a free turn outright--a task which becomes even more complicated when considering that she really has no room for error and Nat can pivot around with Regi to minimize chip on other stuff.

Looking back at the game, I really wish Cynara had been more aggressive with the few mons that could actually break the team. I would've liked to see more work from the Noivern, and really wish it had come out on turn 7 in lieu of the mistimed switch to Steelix. I think bringing in Garde a little earlier could've also opened options for Cynara, but regardless, this isn't the kind of matchup she ever had a serious shot in.

I'm kind of disappointed in the prep from Nat; pulling a stall team works and all--obviously it was a good call here--but I would've liked to see her throw in a few techs rather than pull a team verbatim off the forum. We'll see if opponents are able to get a read on her in future weeks. I'm going to reserve judgment on Cynara's play for a while. This game didn't give much to go off of, and hopefully next week she'll put up a better fight.

Ajna vs welli0u
From preview it doesn't really look like either player has all that much of an advantage. Well's Sigi and Vizi are going to struggle to make headway against Ajna's Mandibuzz and (almost certainly scarf) Lazzle while Ajna's Lycanroc and Vizi aren't going to do much against Well's Rhyperior and (again, likely scarf) Lazzle. Araquanid's a serious threat here; based on Ajna's team it's certainly not webs, so Well should be on the lookout for anything from CB or AV to weird Infestation sets.

Right from the get-go, things don't go Ajna's way. The flinch is huge; once Araquanid is revealed as Leftovers, it becomes pretty clear that Sigi's going to be one of Well's main Araquanid checks, so getting that damage off without taking any return puts Well in a solid spot. From there, the game fell apart really, really quickly for the dude. I seriously question Well's attempted double to Lazzle on turn 13 (note that Lazzle needs an absolute max roll to kill the Spider after rocks + lefties if Ajna brought it in and Mandibuzz was probably the most likely option there anyhow). I also REALLY can't see the rationale in letting Lazzle take the second Fire Blast on turn 14 when you've got a Rhyperior in the wings; Lazzle's one of Well's only strong Vizi stops and now dies to rocks.

The next couple turns Ajna just makes all the right reads, and it was really a shame to see the critical Ice Punch on 26 lessen the impact of his otherwise excellent play. Luckily for him, Well manages to play through the one line that instantly loses--switching Milo in against Araquanid serves no real purpose, and after seeing Leech/Liquidation/Tox on Totem spider, Well should've known the last move was sub. All Well really had to do was pop the sub on 27 (what'd he need Rhyp for again? Esca + IB Milo easily wins against Ajna's toxicless Mandi) and make a couple good doubles, but no dice.

Well played game by Ajna, really disappointing play by Well. Friendly reminder to always play to your outs in games like these--Ajna probably should've lost after the Ice Punch crit, but played to the Well hard choke line, and it paid off.

RedEmption vs EviGaro
You know how I was hyped as hell over Evi in my preseason comments? Well I'm even higher on the hype now than I was then. Sure, she's got a pretty big team advantage with Abomasnow + Doublade, but where many players would've gone all in on safe play and allowed counterplay with Lazzle, Zydog, and Mega, she doesn't give the slightest opportunity. The hard Quake on 3 stops rocks from ever going up against her, meaning that Red can't ever really exert pressure on this Abomasnow. The Ice Shard on turn 6 totally fine (shoutouts Ajna for spamming a chat with "if she quakes here Nat owes me $10 rfn")--there's an important line to hit between unnecessarily aggressive and exerting appropriate pressure to definitively look up a game.

I really don't like the Registeel switch-in by Red on turn 9--hell, I think it was probably the worst play of this game. Evi's not going to let rocks come up that easily and claw locked Flygon's weak as hell, so why bother to switch Mega when Evi's clearly switching Flygon out? It's also not really worth it to preserve Yanmega--physical Aboma assures that it's never sweeping, so it's not some huge loss if Evi inexplicably keeps Clawing.

From there it's basically a wrap. Seemingly iffy play from Evi on turns 14/15--setting up the rocks and then letting Stoise kill Necrozma + spin the rocks away doesn't look great--but it actually prevents Regi from coming in on Necrozma to set up its own rocks, so solid planning there from her if that's what she had in mind. The rest of the game falls into place really quickly. IDK what that Zydog set was but it's atrocious and I don't wanna see it again this SPL.

aim vs Pohjis
Prefacing this by saying that this was my least favorite game of the week by a long shot, and I really wish I'd seen stronger play from both these guys. Matchup is hard for Joey from the get-go; Florges + Lix kinda stops everything except the possible Leech Seed Shaymin, and Sub Raikou is hard to handle. On the flip side, if Joey catches Florges with a big hit from Panda then his Noivern might be able to make a push. Early turns are super uneventful up until the critical Knock Off on turn 6, where Joey suddenly looks like he's making some progress on an eventual Noivern push. Lax spends a couple turns being bad before being sacked for no clear reason (see: bro you have a Steelix) which leads to Florges dying (again, without a super clear reason).

The next ten turns are just...really mediocre. Really safe turns from aim when he needs to be making plays look like they're gonna lock this one up for Pohjis really quickly. I think Pohjis played fine--safe, methodical moves yielded the return he wanted. I also think Joey had the opportunity to punish some of those plays if he'd taken a closer look at how Pohjis played the early turns and been a little more aggressive. Seeing the Seed Flare come out on turn 27 was really disappointing.

----------------------

Gonna write up kw v MoP tomorrow; got some stuff to finish up rn

 

[lighthouses]

RedEmption vs aim - both used iffy teams last round and theres absolutely no way of actually knowing if red is good or not based on that last game, that was impossible to win
KW vs EviGaro - Evi is more diverse in her teambuilding and can probably play a tighter game with less mistakes, her last week match was a good example of stepping on any possible comeback your opponent might try to pull in a bad matchup. Wasnt too convinced by KWs playing last week and aside from that sun team he has been using standard(and generally very very similar) teams all throughout last snake so idk. KW might go super tricking 270 seconds left aggro mode and win though.
Welli0u vs Cynara - Cynara is on the same boat as red to me, impossible game to win last week so can't really gauge how good they are.
Pohjis vs Ajna - Im very high on Pohjis and would favor him against most people, but i actually believe that ajnas playstyle might serve to give him an advantage here. Pohjis generally plays a more patient midground heavy game while Ajna tends to go balls out aggressive if he gets ahead, should be the highlight, im expecting 2 good teams and a tight game.

hf everyone, and nice analysis Windsong please do more

 

[EviGaro]

Week 3 is out!

Welli0u vs Aeroblacktyl
Ajna vs aim
KW vs passion
Kingler12345 vs Pohjis
EviGaro vs Nat

New player coming in for the Ruiners as passion takes up the ru slot against KW, Kingler12345 gets another shot after an impressive win that got Melo banned lol. Ajna and aim rekindle after the RU Open finals they disputed, good stuff

 

[rylon]

Welli0u vs Aeroblacktyl
Ajna vs aim
KW vs passion
Kingler12345 vs Pohjis
EviGaro vs Nat

 

[Windsong]

Forced into doing this again b/c apparently the last set of comments went over pretty well. I also want to state in advance: there's a reason I'm not playing this year (beyond any desire to be a manager), and it's because while I'm still a strong player, I don't believe I could sustain 9+ weeks of high level play anymore. It's really easy for outside players to look in and think "a game a week ez," but they really don't understand the time and effort the SPL players put in, nor do they fully grasp the sheer pressure involved in playing for a team, especially in the clutch weekend games. I have some negative comments regarding plays, team selection, etc., but I want to make it clear: I deeply respect each of these players for committing the tremendous effort required to succeed over the 9+ weeks of SPL.

I also don't have the time to do a thorough analysis on all the games each week, and given that a couple of this week's matches were kind of a wash, I'm just going to focus on the games that had a bit of back and forth.

Redemption vs. pokeaim
These teams aren't the sort of thing I'd bring, but they look alright. Aim's running some bulky build that heavily relies on on Mandi and Slowbro to check stuff, which can make things a little troublesome against teams that can keep hazard pressure on. In terms of sets, from the get go Metagross has to be the rocker, Slowbro's probably Colbur, Mandi's Defog, and almost certainly Defog + Brave Bird because Virizion can just drop stuff otherwise, Champ is unknown (CB? AV? Flame?), Goodra's almost certainly scarf, and Melo's probably Celebrate given the Machamp to break stuff. Red's team looks fine, likely with 4-attacks or Taunt + 3 attacks Nido, rocks Zong, Fightinium (probably?) Virizion, unknown Snorlax, Fog Mantine, and almost certainly scarf Garde.

Red should be looking to pressure the Metagross early with Garde, since it puts in a ton of work if it can get loose. Ideally it'll chip the Meta a bit, successfully trick the scarf onto Slowbro, and then just chuck moves out. Mantine should check non-Thunderpunch/Stone Edge Champ, Lax should check Melo (bar CM + Fightinium sets), and Nido should eventually chip Goodra enough to start getting kills. Joey is in really great shape with CM + Fightinium Melo, but can also win off Celebrate Shadow Ball Melo provided he chips Bronzong and Snorlax.

Turn 3 reveals Wisp off Red's Gardevoir, and it looks like things will be great for him. Bar weird Thunderpunch sets, burnt Metagross is never getting through Mantine, so this should keep rocks off Red's side for the whole game. The passive damage on Metagross is also huge for Garde, which has an avenue opened for some eventual clean. Turn 6 completely flips the script: Mantine is for some reason slower than Champ and lacks Air Slash. Really, really suspect spreads there, but I guess it's just max/max. Letting Nido drop is rough, but probably necessary (although there were ways to dodge w/ Bronzong into Facade -> Garde into CC). Faster Champ means Mantine drops, for some reason opting to Scald rather than clear the rocks (that chip really isn't important).

Melo comes in a little early imo. A little patience there (Slowbro --> TWave would've worked fine) could have been great, but this Melo set is primed to do damage. The Bronzong sack from Reds is completely unnecessary--on a team with Machamp, you'd generally expect Shadow Ball on Melo, and tossing Zong for rocks is very suspect when a pivot to Snorlax gives you a generally better shot at winning. Either way, after Snorlax gets chipped it's a wrap--Goodra cleans. Turns out it doesn't even need to, as Joey gets read correct with Bullet Punch and is able to prevent a boost from Vizi.

Ajna vs Pohjis
Cool matchup from the get-go. Pohjis's team is really, really weird--you've got a pseudo-webs setup in Araquanid+Medi+Amphy, but a solid defensive core in Lix + Mandibuzz. I know col49 has floated around the idea of webs as a fourth move on Araquanid on teams that aren't intended as full webs teams, and I've built a couple setups like that myself, but I don't think the execution was great here--there's a ton of pressure on Lix, and a bunch of special attackers kinda look like they could be threats. Ajna's team is some kind of HO, with Spikes Lass, probably Rocks Necrozma (although I guess rocks Gross isn't impossible?) and probably Celebrate Melo and SD Aboma alongside what I'd guess is scarf Lazzle. If I'm Pohjis, I probably aim to set up webs and rocks and go in with Medi, since it can do serious damage and Ajna has no hazard control. As Ajna I get rocks up then start to chip Spider + pressure Mandi and then sweep with Meloetta or Abomasnow. I'd probably favor Ajna here because Abomasnow can put in a lot of work, but Pohjis can certainly win between pressure from Medicham and Spider/Lix to check Aboma.

The first couple turns work out pretty well for Pohjis. Spider successfully gets webs up and keeps rocks off, which should give Medicham a bit of freedom. With that said, I disagree with sacking the spider here; Ajna hasn't revealed whether Necrozma or Metagross is the rocker, and if Mandi is forced to clear hazards later then letting Spider drop will turn out to have been a bad call. Pohjis also shouldn't be in any sort of rush here--Ajna's playing offense with no hazard control, and if Pohjis has an opportunity to slow the game down a bit and dictate the pace, he should take it.

Everything gets slightly chipped, Medicham gets paralyzed (which seemed kinda unneeded) and Ajna lands the key Toxic on Mandibuzz, which opens up a path for Melo to clean at some point. I really dislike letting Amphy take so much damage--it and Noivern could together get some solid chip on boosted Melo if he'd kept it healthy. Specifically, letting Ampharos take the quake seems kinda suboptimal. Burn on Melo should be enough for Pohjis to wrap this up, assuming Aboma's SD as expected.

Pohjis makes an error turn 22 with the Draco. U-turn out to Steelix would've probably cleaned this game up reasonably well. Pohjis could also have opted to use something other than Draco/U-Turn so as to avoid KOing the Melo, let Melo drop the Noivern and die to burn off Lix's protect, and then win from there. The Draco, unfortunately, allows Ajna to come back into the game. Mandibuzz ends up being some weird set (no none of Foul Play/Toxic/BB? I assume it's like Roost/Defog/Taunt/U-Turn? Maybe Knock > Taunt?) and Abomasnow cleans up accordingly.

** E: I've been told that Mandibuzz did have BB, in which case this should've been Pohjis's game. There was a 100% winning line using Flamethrower on turn 22 -> Melo kills Noivern and dies to burn -> bring in Mandi and BB -> Lix finishes MSnow.

 

[Kingler]

https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen7ru-422576

Played my game vs Pohjis today, fairly happy with my game leading till using z-fight way too early on viriz (turn 22). I was ahead in the sack game and could pretty much get a kill with Viriz every time against any Poke that's not scarf tyrantrum using outrage, and my gameplan involved switching out of the expected scarf tyrantrum anyway, so using close combat there was definitely the move. This made it closer for me than it should've been, probably. Also, at the end, I could've kept synthing on his head smashes (they do about 50% on average) because he couldn't switch out as he died to rocks, I had more PP, and him missing is far more likely than him getting two crits in a row or something lol. Meta's BP could probably KO me on the end turn with a crit given what I did.

overall a pretty good game, I got a lead early and had a pretty clear wincon. really like the team I used too

 

[Denial]

I would like to hear some opinions from the spl ru players about the metagame. What do you think got worst, and what better? I can see discussion about milotic and machamp for example, Milotic only saw 2 uses with both being an L, while Machamp has been used a lot and has a fantastic win%.
As a spectator i cant really say much, so i hope someone is gonna do it.

 

[EviGaro]

Week four omg:

lighthouses vs Pohjis
Ajna vs Kingler12345
Welli0u vs EviGaro
passion vs Nat
aim vs KW

I would like to hear some opinions from the spl ru players about the metagame. What do you think got worst, and what better? I can see discussion about milotic and machamp for example, Milotic only saw 2 uses with both being an L, while Machamp has been used a lot and has a fantastic win%.
As a spectator i cant really say much, so i hope someone is gonna do it.

Milotic is an interesting case, as honestly in prep I still consider it a fairly big issue, but I would probably attribute that to Slowbro being a fairly better physical check to threats that are becoming more popular while having more impactful offensive presence, with Fire Blast and stab Psyshock. That being said, there's still stuff you'd rather have Milo for in the long run, like your Noivern, Garde, Gatr, Blastoise, so I'm not really counting out Milotic yet. Machamp started rising in snake iirc, but having two sets that are really easy to use and get traction with helps it a ton. AV solves several teambuilding issues and has little competition currently, and FO is disgustingly strong. I think that makes it the "easiest" fighting type to use bar maybe Virizion, and even then you tend to get more clearcut utility from Machamp, it will very rarely do nothing unless you throw it straight into a Specs Goodra (I stand by that btw)

Speaking of stats, it's been fascinating to see what happened to Blastoise. While still being the most used pokemon, its fairly terrible winrate saw its usage crater to only once in week 3, which is still extremely surprising. I don't necessarily think it's over, and in fact it might be time to explore new ideas as the standard three attacks spinner doesn't seem to cut it in this tour so far. Shaymin was fairly bad before this week 3, but it doesn't tell us much: passion nearly lost because his z-celeb Shaymin couldn't clean KW's weakened team, forcing the endgame to be a bit more dicey that would have been liked I assume. It's still a giant threat building wise, but that's definitely something to keep an eye on. Metagross had a winless week but week 2 it was undefeated, so hard to tell anything from that lol. Registeel's winrate is kinda insane. I think its only clean loss was from week 1 since both Mop and well had one in their game. Just some quick observations on what we have so far, which isn't all that much if I'm honest but you know.

Might post some thoughts on the first third of my season later in edit, I'll see about that

 

[Master Chief]

Catching up on the meta was interesting over the last 3 weeks so I thought I'd post a few predicts to give this thread a bit more activity before we plunge ourselves into week 4 and mids

lighthouses vs Pohjis: Poohjis sucks atm omg. In actuality his teams have been a real conglomeration of random offensive mons with slow bulky backbones that make for a really awkward mix such as mandi lix webs of all things. Doing a direct comparison the team structure basically shows a clear homology to NU based style teams and clearly Poohjis is stuck in that mindset so unless he shakes himself up, diogo will take this as I think Diogo's builds are probably the most pilotable builds with exactly the right mix of offense and bulk that gives him a leg up in a lot of matches. Fortunately slurmz won't be telling diogo every 2 minutes to use cb rhyperior since pohjis always runs a ground resist

Ajna vs Kingler12345: Ajna can honestly use anything and I just think his offensive playstyle will basically be antithetical to kingler's bulky style. I think ajna will take a stranglehold on this sorta match unless kingler steps out of his usual balance comfort zone and experiments with a non noivern balance.

Welli0u vs EviGaro: Personally I'm a pretty big fan of the well. From his ou games he's an incredibly solid and sound pilot of teams given the right mu. However, evi's dug deep into her repertoire both in circuit + spl so predicting what she's feeling is quite difficult or what she'll bring. I think in a game of evi's techs vs col's techs, most of col's techs are geared toward generic meta trends while evi's techs are catch all techs and will give her a slight edge in this game but no way can I count out the well. This is the sorta game that'll be won or lost in the builder I feel because evi and well don't usually slip up (ignoring well's match vs ajna)

passion vs Nat: I don't buy the 'Nat is on a tilt' stuff and when she wants to show, she can. That being said passion plays well... passionately. Nat's really solid generally in building + playing but I can't discount passion's spirit when it comes to spl and other stuff so I don't think this match is that easily called as it can go either way. I'll be rooting for the gamer tho

aim vs KW: So many people are on the hate KW train rn when he's 0-3 and wanna see him do badly. Objectively though KW is a good player and his snake run can't be discounted. However that being said, I think KW's run came out of him using stable and solid builds interspersed with the odd offensive build to put some unpredictability in his prep. This spl KW has been a bit all over the place with his builds and I think if he calmly analyses builds and trends more, he can more safely rely on builds more characterstic of him and cop out the win. Not discrediting everyone's favourite poketuber tho since aim is coming off an incredible win vs ajna and i think his prep shone through there and prepping vs ajna honestly is quite hard in this meta. That being said I just have the gut feeling that KW will bounce back and maybe finally string together a solid enough run

glhf everyone as I go back into hibernation in the lab again. Fuck uni

 

[lighthouses]

Ajna vs Kingler12345 - i don't think this is as one sided as it may appear, kingler piloted his teams pretty well over the past 2 games and the instability of the metagame makes it so one has to make a few concessions while teambuilding so Ajna can't run those rock solid can-outplay-most-anything(but all look the same :p) teams he has been known to use. I have no reason to believe Kingler wouldnt pilot a good matchup well so the raiders should try to lab hard on this one.

Welli0u vs EviGaro - Well has generally been pretty solid other than one game and while i do think that a hot streak goes a long way in building confidence up and whatnot i think this is evis toughest challenge yet; Well can play at a fundamental level similar to Nat while having 49's support, the canadian Stantler connoisseur will have to work hard for this 4-0

passion vs Nat - Idk about the whole tilt thing, every game is played within a week of the previous one so theres plenty of time to cool off your head here. Hard not to favor my buddy nat in this one provided she gets her shit together. That said, passion played a pretty solid overall game last week with a cool tech that hit, which is pretty much what youd expect from a winning spl game. So Nat definitely won't get this one without a fight.

aim vs KW - Besides his week 1 game vs mop i do not think KW is playing bad at all, just nothing seems to go his way and if he can shake off that 'this is a matchup tier' mentality and start building some solid teams like he used to, i believe in the bounce back.

hf loves

 

[termi]

lighthouses (49) vs Pohjis (51): diogo will spend more time complaining about the meta than building for his game LOL jk bb love you. honestly i would favor diogo here if i had more of an idea of how much he's playing ru right now, but i dont, and i also think pohjis should be pretty desperate to leave his mark by now so i think he'll pull up with a more solid team than in the past rounds. it's anybody's game tho

Ajna (80) vs Kingler12345 (20): sorry kingler but i really doubt ajna's gonna allow himself to lose two weeks in a row, kingler's absolutely a solid player but ajna's better & just pulls up with better teams, it takes luck and/or another seriously bad matchup for ajna to lose this one

Welli0u (35) vs EviGaro (65): well has the skills and the team support to be able to do well, but so far the one game he won was basically a free win and the two he lost he definitely choked, meanwhile evi's done very little to suggest that she'll lose against anyone but the most seasoned of players this SPL. her consistency so far plus her being more comfortable in RU makes me favor her

passion (51) vs Nat (49): another weird one to predict, nat's the obvious favorite but she's also more affected by tilt than anyone else in the pool. i think passion is solid enough to get a win against a nat in less-than-optimal form, nat's biggest battle this week will likely be fought against herself

aim (55) vs KW (45): i would really like to favor kw here but he's been a bit sloppy, he absolutely is able to catch aim off guard on a good day and with a good matchup though. aim's obviously a proven player with a lot of experience under his belt and he won't easily choke a game away, however i do think his teams occasionally leave something to desired, last week's team despite catching a great matchup had some very obvious flaws (no fire resist and your scarfer is a tsareena?) so i think the prep stage is where kw can really get the upper hand if anything

 

[Feliburn]

Hey, due to super high popular demand, I'll be posting my thoughts on this past SPL week regarding the RU games, and then will talk about the upcoming games.

Nat vs KW

At first glance, I dig Nat's team, reminds me of the old balances ppl used to build some metas ago w/ an added Feraligatr that later on was revealed to have a completely different purpose in fucking block gatr, which worked wonders since it managed to beat KW's Slowbro 1v1, leaving behind an incredibly Zydog weak team completely open. One turn that kind of confuses me is when KW decided to get em up w/ gross in front of zygarde when he'd really appreciate dog dead, I'm guessing he feared a possible sash roserade later on? Then Nat revealing EQ Regi to prevent Hoopa from being behind a sub was also p heat, overall the prep on Nat's part was way stronger and it definitely showed, but the game itself was p close.

lighthouses vs kingler12345

Diogo out here whipping out the dangers but then bop kingler is using them too rofl, I don't have much to say about this game, it was just Diogo making rlly good plays throughout the entire game. Most important turn was kingler's zydog dying early to sash roserade in my opinion cause it put a lot of work against Diogo's team so it was a super worth exchange from Diogo's side.

EviGaro vs Pohjis

Damn the RU circuit rematch, Evi using an offensive build w/ Klinklang and a Drapion set I couldn't rlly figure out and Pohjis using a classic looking torterra build that I'm not sure I like a lot cause it feels really slow, even if the noivern is scarfed it feels like a slow build w/ only one way to rkill faster threats, tho it helps w/ banded bp from gross and DD trex I suppose idk. Pretty neutral game till turn 18 where Evi made a very aggro play and let Nidoqueen take a lot of damage and having to sack toise due to it, it still came down to a weird exchange where evi was still in a position to win w/ Klinklang but I supposed she thought Pohjis would try to read the Magnet Rise and go for banded meteor mashes to kill it instead, in a sense ig it was a 50/50 and pohjis ended up getting it right, either that or he assumed no magnet rise rofl, was also a close game and a good watch.

Ajna vs passion

Classic ajna lookin build vs a goat lookin passion build, I loved a lot of the techs like head smash donphan and LO agility gross, unfortunately passion got unlucky a lot during this game, small bits of hax that ended up having major impact in the endgame, including certain misses and crits, it was overall a decent game but rlly haxy. From the way it was played I'd like to assume ajna's golisopid was drill run so good call on passion to let the z move rip in that turn. I feel like passion coulda saved croak from the somewhat obvious ZHB Viriz, also unfort about the shardless donphan since it would have been able to win, anyway ggs to passion, he played rlly well despite all the hax against him.

pokeaim vs Welli0u

As a Mudsdale preacher back in the day, I really appreciate joey using it this week, but I'm not sure I'd bring it even as a counterstyle type of pokemon, and it doesn't help that well had an unkillable tangela paired w/ cleric florges. Matchup was really rough for joey in my opinion, well played it v safe for the majority of the game, maybe after the metagross died joey could have played the guts scarfed machamp more aggro to pressure well but can't blame him, it was tough, v good prep from well's part and overall a good game, it wasn't one sided at all but the disadvantage was noticeable.

Now for this week's predictions:

Nat vs Ajna
Ok this one is tough, overall I prefer Ajna's teams cause they feel more complete, but that's also rlly easy to exploit since they all look fairly similar, tho ajna is known for using rlly small techs to erase threats to his team, as usual gonna go w/ my boy but it'll be a fun watch.

passion vs Welli0u
I really like how passion has been playing, and he has obviously learned from the small mistakes he makes, no doubt he'll play amazing vs well tho he has also been rlly good, still gonna go w/ passion for this.


EviGaro vs lighthouses
tug hl, both players are known for using unorthodox builds so it's gonna be super interesting from the preview, evi has been playing rlly good but diogo is also rlly solid so I can't decide for either, go both


Sage vs aim
Aim is overall a way better player, and his teams have been rlly diversed so it'd be hard to get a good counterstyle on him, giving it to him.


UltraBallz vs Pohjis
Pohjis is a better player and he is way more familiar w/ the tier in general.

Didn't have much to add in the predictions and didn't wanna force text rofl, hf pals.

 

[Feliburn]

ROFL double posting a month later

Regular season is over boys, so obligatory post to ask players to share their thoughts on their season, teams, plays, etc, for the fans to see their thought process behind most things related to the tour

This post is also an excuse to say I'm proud of aim for winning 4 weeks in a row ROFL