Smogon Premier League XIV - Semifinals

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Matchups:


Team Raiders (7) vs (3) Alpha Ruiners

SV OU: Baloor vs xavgb
SV OU: DAHLI vs njnp
SV OU: Kebab mlml vs Raptor
SV OU: Ash KetchumGamer vs CrashinBoomBang
SS OU: Gtcha vs Eternal Spirit
SM OU: Skypenguin vs CTC
ORAS OU: RaiZen1704 vs pj
BW OU: Jisoo vs dice
DPP OU: DeepBlueC vs Laurel
ADV OU: McMeghan vs zf
GSC OU: false vs Siatam
RBY OU: Serpi vs chuva de perereca



Congregation of the Classiest (2) vs (8) Stark Sharks

SV OU: Garay oak vs SoulWind
SV OU: Lunala vs kythr
SV OU: mncmt vs mind gaming
SV OU: Aberforth vs Nat
SS OU: suapah vs TDNT
SM OU: emforbes vs Gondra
ORAS OU: MichaelderBeste2 vs jonfilch
BW OU: Luthier vs watashi
DPP OU: Student of Sinnoh vs bruno
ADV OU: Triangles vs robjr
GSC OU: Century Express vs ggggd
RBY OU: Nails vs Heroic Troller


Deadline will be March 26, 9:00 PM GMT-4.

Team Raiders (0) vs (0) Alpha Ruiners

SV OU: Baloor vs xavgb
SV OU: DAHLI vs njnp
SV OU: Kebab mlml vs Raptor
SV OU: Ash KetchumGamer vs CrashinBoomBang
SS OU: Gtcha vs Eternal Spirit
SM OU: Skypenguin vs CTC
ORAS OU: RaiZen1704 vs pj
BW OU: Jisoo vs dice
DPP OU: DeepBlueC vs Laurel
ADV OU: McMeghan vs zf
GSC OU: false vs Siatam
RBY OU: Serpi vs chuva de perereca

Congregation of the Classiest (0) vs (0) Stark Sharks

SV OU: Garay oak vs SoulWind
SV OU: Lunala vs kythr
SV OU: mncmt vs mind gaming
SV OU: Aberforth vs Nat
SS OU: suapah vs TDNT
SM OU: emforbes vs Gondra
ORAS OU: MichaelderBeste2 vs jonfilch
BW OU: Luthier vs watashi
DPP OU: Student of Sinnoh vs bruno
ADV OU: Triangles vs robjr
GSC OU: Century Express vs ggggd
RBY OU: Nails vs Heroic Troller
 
Last edited by a moderator:

z0mOG

is a Top Tiering Contributoris a Social Media Contributor Alumnusis the Smogon Tour Season 26 Championis a defending SCL Championis a Past WCoP Champion
DPL Champion
Team Raiders (6) vs (6) Alpha Ruiners

SV OU: Baloor vs xavgb
SV OU: DAHLI vs njnp
SV OU: Kebab mlml vs Raptor
SV OU: Ash KetchumGamer vs CrashinBoomBang
SS OU: Gtcha vs Eternal Spirit - highlight
SM OU: Skypenguin vs CTC
ORAS OU: RaiZen1704 vs pj
BW OU: Jisoo vs dice
DPP OU: DeepBlueC vs Laurel
ADV OU: McMeghan vs zf
GSC OU: false vs Siatam
RBY OU: Serpi vs chuva de perereca

Congregation of the Classiest (7) vs (5) Stark Sharks

SV OU: Garay oak vs SoulWind
SV OU: Lunala vs kythr
SV OU: mncmt vs mind gaming
SV OU: Aberforth vs Nat
SS OU: suapah vs TDNT
SM OU: emforbes vs Gondra
ORAS OU: MichaelderBeste2 vs jonfilch - highlight
BW OU: Luthier vs watashi
DPP OU: Student of Sinnoh vs bruno
ADV OU: Triangles vs robjr
GSC OU: Century Express vs ggggd
RBY OU: Nails vs Heroic Troller

rooting for classiest
 

Finchinator

-OUTL
is a Tournament Directoris a Top Social Media Contributoris a Community Leaderis a Community Contributoris a Smogon Discord Contributoris a Top Tiering Contributoris a Contributor to Smogonis a Top Smogon Media Contributoris a Top Dedicated Tournament Hostis a Senior Staff Member Alumnusis a Battle Simulator Moderator Alumnusis a Past WCoP Championis the defending OU Circuit Championis a Two-Time Former Old Generation Tournament Circuit Champion
OU Leader
Can finally take a stab at these with some more time in hand and fewer teams in.

Team Raiders (6) vs (6) Alpha Ruiners

SV OU: Baloor vs xavgb - xavgb has been the picture of consistency in CG OU for a couple of years now. He uses good teams and makes good plays. I do feel his playoff performances have been a step behind his regular season ones, but I think another season of experience will serve him well here. I like Baloor a lot and I think he has a cool vision of the tier, but I find him to be a step or two behind where he needs to be to be a favorite in this setting, especially against a top opponent. Overall, Baloor is just more error prone while xavgb has been an absolute machine. I expect the Raiders to have Baloor equipped with some Tricking technology here, but xavgb will flick the right switches to make it work.
SV OU: DAHLI vs njnp - Ruiners' SV teams have been some of the best in the tournament imo, and I think njnp is one of the biggest forces behind this strength. CBB and Raptor are creative, too, so perhaps it is a group effort, but njnp has shown an affinity for practical techs since the first time I saw him play. I really love how he focuses on generating openings and offensive pressure. I think stall into Lily was not his single best choice, but otherwise he has had a ton of good ideas. DAHLI is someone I am less familiar with and I worry this will be an uphill game for them. Their win vs Raptor was good, but perhaps more due to Raptor than DAHLI themselves. Of course, credit is still due and DAHLI has a solid record in a shorter sample, but njnp's full body of work impresses me more.
SV OU: Kebab mlml vs Raptor - Raptor had a rough week nine game, but a very strong season overall. I have a lot of respect for his creative ideas and aggressive plays. Kebab is definitely good, too, but I think he is a bit more reliant on support in the builder and a bit less seasoned as a battler here. I am very excited to see what Raptor comes up with in the teambuilder. I expect this one to be quite offensive and over by turn 30-40 either way.
SV OU: Ash KetchumGamer vs CrashinBoomBang - This one is close. I think both are way better than their records. Ash has been an absolute fiend in STour like settings and CBB has been great for many years. I think I can see CBB winning because he has a ton of experience and the moment in the playoffs is not too big for him, but Ash is really scrappy and finds a way to win when he has the right teams selected a lot. My gut says Ash, so I will bold accordingly, but definitely close to me. Very excited to see what teams they come up with.
SS OU: Gtcha vs Eternal Spirit - Gtcha is a very strong player. Gama can and likely will be, too, but sometimes he makes errors that hurt his position. When he has a clear plan and his ideas straight, Gama is arguably the higher ceiling of the two and I love his style of play as well. Gtcha seems a bit less prone to errors and more consistent though. His success is really understated and Gtcha's records overall are pretty amazing. I will side with him due to this and recent track record, but never count Gama out as he is very capable as well.
SM OU: Skypenguin vs CTC - Skype got some fortune in the first round, but he is overall one of the top SM players and probably my favorite builder in the current metagame. CTC is a wild card who can beat anyone in anything with the right amount of preparation and form, but I do think his best days are a bit behind him. Obviously still cannot count him out as a high ceiling player, but Skype, kind of like Gtcha, is just very solid and consistent. Gotta stick with that here.
ORAS OU: RaiZen1704 vs pj - Tough break for pj last week, but overall I am impressed a lot with pj's teams and play. He continues to improve in a metagame that is looking more cool by the season to me. RaiZen is tough as I am unsure how good he may be; some silly wins with the activity and timeout, but also he seems to be very invested and the Raiders have a lot of support. I know pj more and trust him more, but could see it going either way.
BW OU: Jisoo vs dice - dice is phenomenal when in BW. His teams are close to the golden standard and his play is not too shabby either. Jisoo has had an amazing debut, demonstrating masterful play of numerous archetypes, but I think they may have their hands full here. The support of a pantheon of BW greats -- McMeghan, raiza, and even Tricking -- may go a long way, but preparing for dice is very hard. I expect dice to have the advantage in preparation for sure and the battle may be close, but dice has avoided making many mistakes, so I expect him to come out on top in an absolute highlight.
DPP OU: DeepBlueC vs Laurel - Another repeat game. I think DBC is too good to lose consecutively here. He is not going to dominate any field necessarily, but DBC is a consistently good player. Laurel I am less familiar with in the modern day. He looked good last week, but may have some more ground to cover to repeat this performance.
ADV OU: McMeghan vs zf
GSC OU: false vs Siatam
RBY OU: Serpi vs chuva de perereca

Lean Raiders in tiebreak

Congregation of the Classiest (6) vs (6) Stark Sharks

SV OU: Garay oak vs SoulWind - I am surprised to see SoulWind in SV, and I think this match-up is a bit awkward for him. He has a decent chance in any tier vs any player of course because he is an all-time great player, but Garay is no easy opponent. Neither has been excellent this season as both went 4-5, but Garay has been better here than in BW and at least has a few weeks under his belt. I expect this to be close as both are superb players, but I will give Garay the edge as he is typically good in the playoffs and has been in SV a bit longer. I think we see some sneaky cheese being brought out here, too.
SV OU: Lunala vs kythr - Quietly, kythr had a nice 5-4 regular season after a very strong start. Lunala has struggled a bit with a 2-5 showing thus far himself. I think kythr has just looked better and I view both as similarly competent, but support reliant, in CG OU, so the recent results break it open for me.
SV OU: mncmt vs mind gaming - Absolute banger. mind gaming has become a top player, but mncmt is now 9-0. Gotta go with the 9-0, too. mncmt has been so strong this generation and I cannot pick against them with what I have seen. mind gaming is the heart of this very strong OU core and he can beat anyone of course, but his hands will be full with an undefeated opponent in mncmt.
SV OU: Aberforth vs Nat - Nat is great. If she stays on task, I expect a complete effort and victory from her here. Abe shows some promise and had a nice win last week, but I think he is outmatched in terms of metagame prowess and body of work here by Nat, so it will be tough for him to make this up without getting a favorable match-up.
SS OU: suapah vs TDNT - suapah is a very strong SS player and has been super efficient when given the chance to play the tier officially. TDNT I am not familiar with at all and cannot comment on, but given that suapah is a clear positive in my eyes, the decision made itself for me.
SM OU: emforbes vs Gondra - emforbes has been great this season and I view them as a consisntently strong player. Gondra I see as more hit or miss though and I think his team choices may also reflect this. I gotta side with the more consistent of the two as a 6-3 debut is phenomenal and Gondra just has not dominated much recently like he once did.
ORAS OU: MichaelderBeste2 vs jonfilch - Great pairing! jon is a wonderful ORAS player who always brings good teams. Surprised to see Michael here, but I respect the call from the Classiest a lot. This will be close as Michael is coming off of an invitational win, too, but jon has been in this format all season and feels like he is in a good stride aside from the pj moment. A third tier this tour for Michael feels tough, especially after he finally got it together in SS after a rough month in SV to start things. Gonna side with jonfilch here due to this, but will be very close and exciting above all else.
BW OU: Luthier vs watashi - 5-3 in BW is a great run for watashi, who is more experienced and proven in this generation. Luthier has shown good signs in his time in the tier so far without a doubt and he is a very good player, but I think he lacks the support watashi does and I think he is a step behind in terms of metgame instinct/knowledge, so I side with watashi.
DPP OU: Student of Sinnoh vs bruno - the corder
ADV OU: Triangles vs robjr
GSC OU: Century Express vs ggggd
RBY OU: Nails vs Heroic Troller

lean Sharks in tiebreak
 
Team Raiders (5) vs (7) Alpha Ruiners

SV OU: Baloor vs xavgb
SV OU: DAHLI vs njnp
SV OU: Kebab mlml vs Raptor
SV OU: Ash KetchumGamer vs CrashinBoomBang
SS OU: Gtcha vs Eternal Spirit
SM OU: Skypenguin vs CTC
ORAS OU: RaiZen1704 vs pj
BW OU: Jisoo vs dice
DPP OU: DeepBlueC vs Laurel
ADV OU: McMeghan vs zf
GSC OU: false vs Siatam
RBY OU: Serpi vs chuva de perereca

tiebreak analysis:
Ruiners pick first. They have a lot of options here. dice's BW, cbb's ORAS, gama's SS, raptor/stresh's SV are all very strong points they can choose as their main pick. If i could guess their manager's take on what their strongest player is, dice's BW would be an easy guess for sure.

Problem is, that can be responded very powerfully by mcmeghan (or possibly even jisoo, though i would still rate mcmeghan's BW higher than theirs), and this frees up a SM pick for skypenguin, a very strong point for raiders and weak one for ruiners (though gama is of course no slouch in it at all).

If they do pick ORAS, SS or SV, mcmeghan will likely have his tier of choice, though the option of responding with mcm anyway and picking skype is always there (would be insane but who knows!).

An older gen pick for ruiners seems very silly, as that would be responded even more powerfully than BW would be by mcmeghan, and that also frees up SM for skype.

For raiders, SS gtcha could be an option as that pick was the SPL winning pick of last season! but gama is also in great form in that tier. GSC mcmeghan could be interesting depending on his current level on that tier, as that has been a weakpoint for ruiners. But I personally find that all suboptimal and silly, because if you're raiders, you certainly want ADV mcmeghan to tiebreak as he's in alien level in that tier right now.

Raiders's team budget without bea is a whooping 101.5k !!! without counting dahli, so the ban really hinders them here... despite mcmeghan diff, I will have to favor ruiners.

SV OU: Gtcha vs xavgb
BW OU: McMeghan vs dice
SM OU: Skypenguin vs Eternal Spirit

SV OU: Gtcha vs xavgb
BW OU: Jisoo vs dice
ADV OU: McMeghan vs zf

SV OU: Gtcha vs xavgb
ORAS OU: Skypenguin vs CrashinBoomBang
ADV OU: McMeghan vs zf

SV OU: Gtcha vs xavgb
SV OU: Skypenguin vs Raptor
ADV OU: McMeghan vs zf

SV OU: Skypenguin vs xavgb
SS OU: Gtcha vs Eternal Spirit
ADV OU: McMeghan vs zf


Congregation of the Classiest (6) vs (6) Stark Sharks

SV OU: Garay oak vs SoulWind
SV OU: Lunala vs kythr
SV OU: mncmt vs mind gaming
SV OU: Aberforth vs Nat
SS OU: suapah vs TDNT
SM OU: emforbes vs Gondra
ORAS OU: MichaelderBeste2 vs jonfilch
BW OU: Luthier vs watashi
DPP OU: Student of Sinnoh vs bruno
ADV OU: Triangles vs robjr
GSC OU: Century Express vs ggggd
RBY OU: Nails vs Heroic Troller

tiebreak analysis:
Sharks pick first. Soulwind's BW is historically the strongest choice for them, as he's clearly the best BW player to ever touch that generation unless you're insane, but i do not know how involved soulwind is with BW right now. Soulwind is also the strongest response to any tier, as he plays everything, wich leads to...

... DPP being the next choice, as student of sinnoh, while good, will certainly feel a lot of pressure as he's new and young, while anti's an old dog. However, there's an incredibly dumb stigma associated with picking LE VARIANCE GEN DPP XD GENIUS OML UNVIABLE LOL XD BOP DASH SPACE but you could point out to the fact that this very stupid stigma somehow can be backed up by history! and that could scare sharks away from picking DPP, so who knows.

SV would be an interesting choice for the sharks, as mind gaming is extremely strong, however the response from classiest (suapah) will be much stronger than the response in bw or dpp, so I don't like it.

Classiest wants to pick something for michael, despite the tilt at the beginning, he's probably still their strongest player. A pick for suapah could be interesting too, as he is not far behind from michael (some might even say he's better! I disagree, but he's still great).

Neither michael or suapah can respond to the two old gens that are likely to come from sharks, so for classiest, picking an old gen seems very silly despite how good triangles and leandro are, as all of those old gens can be strongly responded by both anti and soulwind. But it could still workout if these players feel very confident.

mncmt vs nat would be an absolute SV showdown, as if my predictions turn out correct, their aggregate record would be 19-1. as they both have conquered the ladder as well as spl, you can make an argument that they're clearly the two best SV players in the world right now.

I may have picked classiest to win in most of the predictions below but I actually favor sharks because I believe sharks's pick is way stronger and has a much higher chance of winning than anything classiest can pick.

SV OU: mncmt vs Nat
BW OU: Garay oak vs SoulWind
SS OU: MichaelderBeste2 vs mind gaming

SV OU: mncmt vs Nat
DPP OU: Student of Sinnoh vs bruno
SS OU: MichaelderBeste2 vs SoulWind

SV OU: mncmt vs Nat
DPP OU: Student of Sinnoh vs bruno
SV OU: suapah vs mind gaming

SV OU: mncmt vs Nat
BW OU: Garay oak vs SoulWind
SV OU: suapah vs mind gaming

SV OU: mncmt vs Nat
SV OU: suapah vs mind gaming
SS OU: MichaelDerBeste2 vs SoulWind

SV OU: mncmt vs Nat
DPP OU: Student of Sinnoh vs bruno
ADV OU: Triangles vs SoulWind

SV OU: mncmt vs Nat
BW OU: Garay Oak vs SoulWind
GSC OU: Century Express vs bruno


Not rooting for any team in particular, so good luck to all my dear friends Raptor Eternal Spirit mncmt Gondra Luthier Century Express and ggggd's cat :heart:
 
Last edited:

Vileman

Actually a Nice Fella
is a Tournament Director Alumnusis a Forum Moderator Alumnusis a Tiering Contributor Alumnusis a Former Old Generation Tournament Circuit Champion
UPL Champion
Team Raiders (7) vs (5) Alpha Ruiners

SV OU: Baloor vs xavgb
SV OU: DAHLI vs njnp
SV OU: Kebab mlml vs Raptor
SV OU: Ash KetchumGamer vs CrashinBoomBang
SS OU: Gtcha vs Eternal Spirit - gonna be a banger
SM OU: Skypenguin vs CTC
ORAS OU: RaiZen1704 vs pj
BW OU: Jisoo vs dice - go jisoo!!!!!!!!!!1!!111!!!!!1!!1!!
DPP OU: DeepBlueC vs Laurel
ADV OU: McMeghan vs zf - love zf but mcm's been killing it,,, prove me wrong son,,
GSC OU: false vs Siatam
RBY OU: Serpi vs chuva de perereca - 2 great players, looking forward to it

Congregation of the Classiest (6) vs (6) Stark Sharks

SV OU: Garay oak vs SoulWind - dale garay
SV OU: Lunala vs kythr
SV OU: mncmt vs mind gaming - mncmt porra caralho
SV OU: Aberforth vs Nat
SS OU: suapah vs TDNT
SM OU: emforbes vs Gondra
ORAS OU: MichaelderBeste2 vs jonfilch
BW OU: Luthier vs watashi
DPP OU: Student of Sinnoh vs bruno - gnti
ADV OU: Triangles vs robjr
GSC OU: Century Express vs ggggd - ggggd has surprised everyone with his 4-0 but leandro is smth else.
RBY OU: Nails vs Heroic Troller - would love to see nails win but won't predict against troller. My highlight of the week
 
super interesting to see a bunch of rotations across the lineups ahead of the semis series. we haven't seen tdnt since week 1, michael being taken out of ss despite completely turning his season around there (and winning a smogon tour this weekend), and zf playing his third tier in as many weeks. excited to see how it'll all unfold. the classiest juggle is especially high risk high reward to me, given that both suapah and michael were absolutely killing it after moving to sv and ss respectively. i still think the classiest have the strongest line-up, but i'm less certain now compared to last week. excited to see what'll happen.

to my wolves, sorry for not being better this season. you were all amazing. <3 ty for the time and effort put into the tournament @ hosting team and gl to all four teams remaining!
 

yone

The One.
is a Tiering Contributoris a Past WCoP Champion
SV OU: Baloor vs xavgb
SV OU: DAHLI vs njnp
SV OU: Kebab mlml vs Raptor
SV OU: Ash KetchumGamer vs CrashinBoomBang
SS OU: Gtcha vs Eternal Spirit
SM OU: Skypenguin vs CTC
ORAS OU: RaiZen1704 vs pj (I love both i cant decideee)
BW OU: Jisoo vs dice
DPP OU: DeepBlueC vs Laurel
ADV OU: McMeghan vs zf
GSC OU: false vs Siatam
RBY OU: Serpi vs chuva de perereca

I predict Raiders vs Classiest for finals
 
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