Next 7* raid: Cinderace Terafight!

This is huge. Cinderace will be on 7* raides from 30th to 1st and from 13th to 15th january.

What will be good mons to face this physical attacker?
 
I think how hard this will be will depend entirely on what moves they decide to give it. It's Fighting type so it'll probably be the "all physical" counterpart to Charizard by design, but unlike Charizard it probably wont be walled by Dachsbun
 
I have a feeling this guy will get gunk shot and invalidate Azumarill. That would mean I need to train something else, any quick ideas what might work?
 
Moves to expect:
  • Pyro Ball
  • High Jump Kick
  • Acrobatics
  • Gunk Shot
  • Iron Head
  • Zen Headbutt
  • Sucker Punch
  • Bulk Up
  • Swords Dance
  • Taunt
I can see Nasty Plot Slowbro being really good here:

:slowbro:
Slowbro @ Twisted Spoon
Ability: Oblivious
Tera Type: Psychic
EVs: 252 HP / 4 Def / 252 SpA
Modest Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Nasty Plot
- Stored Power
- Slack Off / Iron Defense
- Psychic Terrain

It resists the dual Fire/Fighting STAB combo (since its Tera type is Fighting) and doesn't take much from its other attacks. Oblivious also makes Slowbro immune to the potential Taunt.

Edit: swapped out Iron Defense for Psychic Terrain. ID is kind of unnecessary considering Bro's living everything comfortably from Ace, and in the event Ace has Sucker Punch, the PT will give you and your teammates priority-immunity and boost all Psychic moves. However, if you feel more comfortable with using heal cheers than Slack Off, you can run Iron Defense alongside Psychic Terrain ig
 
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I was gonna say Flutter Mane will more than likely work but then I remembered the base 55 defence :zonger:

Bulk Up Annihilape would possibly work? It’s hard to properly theorise without knowing its moveset but if we use Charizard as a basis, its moveset is probably going to be a little basic and can be walled by a decent Ghost type with decent defence.
 
Moves to expect:
  • Pyro Ball
  • High Jump Kick
  • Acrobatics
  • Gunk Shot
  • Iron Head
  • Zen Headbutt
  • Sucker Punch
  • Bulk Up
  • Swords Dance
  • Taunt
I can see Nasty Plot Slowbro being really good here:

:slowbro:
Slowbro @ Twisted Spoon
Ability: Oblivious
Tera Type: Psychic
EVs: 252 HP / 4 Def / 252 SpA
Modest Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Nasty Plot
- Psychic / Stored Power
- Slack Off / Surf
- Iron Defense

It resists the dual Fire/Fighting STAB combo (since its Tera type is Fighting) and doesn't take much from its other attacks. Oblivious also makes Slowbro immune to the potential Taunt. Assuming it's not running Libero Sucker Punch, you could just go for a mono-attacking set with either Psychic for consistency after the stat boost removal turn, or Stored Power to try to get an early kill in with a coordinated team. If it IS running Libero Sucker Punch, you might want a second attack like Surf or something idk.
Libero wont matter; the type change wont occur during terastalization
 

CTNC

Doesn't know how to attack
Ceruledge looks like a possible good support Pokemon. The Ghost/Fire Typing and Flash Fire (possibly with an Ability Shield if you really don't want to get hit by Fire Attacks for some reason) grants immunities to Fighting and Fire and resistances to every possible Physical Attack except Acrobatics and Zen Headbutt. Reflect can help allies endure, Clear Smog can remove Attack boosts if Cinderace can boost their Attack, and there's a chance Taunt could be useful. If they know Taunt, you can use Speed EVs to Taunt before them first. For Ceruledge's own survival, Bitter Blade.

The reason I say support instead of Sword Dance attacker is they don't get any Super Effective Attacks unless you count Tera Blast.
Edit: I somehow missed Psycho Cut.

I have a feeling this guy will get gunk shot and invalidate Azumarill. That would mean I need to train something else, any quick ideas what might work?
If you're looking for Belly Drum users, the easy answer is Charizard. It gets Belly Drum as an Egg Move and, call it a hunch, but I think you may have a good Charizard laying around. Accrobatics means no item though. I'd probably try a HP restoring Berry.

The annoying to get Belly Drum alternative is Hariyama. It's bulkier than Charizard and has Thick Fat, but it needs to Tera to resist Fighting. It gets Zen Headbutt for some reason, so I'd try out Tera Psychic if you have a Tera Psychic one or want to use 50 Tera Shards.
 
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The annoying to get Belly Drum alternative is Hariyama. It's bulkier than Charizard and has Thick Fat, but it needs to Tera to resist Fighting. It gets Zen Headbutt for some reason, so I'd try out Tera Psychic if you have a Tera Psychic one or want to use 50 Tera Shards.
The problem with this is that you need to survive 3 turns attacking Cinderace (more if it saps tera energy from you) before you Tera into Psychic. Better off just using something that naturally resists Ace.

Call this a meme, but I also uniornically think Grumpig might make for decent support, too:

:grumpig:
Grumpig @ Light Clay
Ability: Thick Fat
Tera Type: Psychic
EVs: 252 HP / 252 Def / 4 SpA
Bold Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Reflect
- Helping Hand
- Psychic
- Chilling Water

Thick Fat lets it resist dual STAB, Reflect and Chilling Water to neuter Cinderace's physical attacking prowess, Helping Hand to boost a strong ally, and Tera Psychic for good shield-breaking.
 
honestly in my experience belly drum strategies are probably still going to work just because you're dealing so much damage across the 4 of you that it doesnt really matter if you die.

Especially if you get someone running support.
 
Finally, Cinderace is available in non-default Pokeballs!

I think a lot of our options are going to come down to how adventerous gamefreak gets with the coverage moves. We were all hunkering down for solar beam on Charizard, but then it was nowhere to be found and we trounced it pretty easily with Azumarill and a cast of fairy types. Let’s see if they respond to the onslaught of bunnies with a step up in difficulty.

I agree with the mention of Ceruledge. Oh boy, this thing is a beast for raids. I must have solo’d dozens of 5-6 stars with him by now with swords dance bitter blade with Metronome. Having it be immune to two type Cinderace will almost assuredly have alongside resisting possible coverage types like normal, steel, and poison is incredible. There’s a good chance we can just hang tough -> sd -> endless bitter blades for a win here! Just please don’t have sucker punch lol
 
If the (japanese only) news post they had for tips about Charizard that made it clear its all-special primarily-fire with one coverage move was very purposeful design I think they want these things to be puzzle boxes you can prepare for. There will probably be some combination of moves set up that does have one or two more direct counters, without necessarily chasing the endless snake that is "we gotta counter the primary methods!"
 
Just please don’t have sucker punch lol
Sucker Punch won't be that much of an issue if you invest your Ceruledge in HP. If you want to never be 2HKOd by Sucker Punch outside of crits you could invest in 252 HP / 12 Def with the rest in Attack. Ideally, you'd want Reflect support, too.

0+ Atk Cinderace Sucker Punch vs. 252 HP / 12 Def Ceruledge: 148-176 (41.8 - 49.7%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
 
Realistically speaking I'll just bring Slowbro with Reflect, Psychic, Chilling Water and prolly one of Slack Off, Heal Pulse, Yawn or Growl depending on how it ends up working.

My prediction is that it'll have HJK, Pyro ball, Zen Headbutt, probably Trailblaze, and as extra moves (the ones it uses on "extra turns" Bulk Up or Swords Dance and maybe Taunt. Non-0 chance of Electro Ball somewhere though I wouldn't bet on it.
Somehow I don't expect Gunk Shot or Sucker Punch, they feel too situational to be thrown in, but may be wrong.

Ngl if they give him Taunt I may need a different idea than Slowbro since that would invalid--- oh yeah Oblivious is a thing, nevermind we safe.

Also particularly underrated but Scream Tail may once more be a decent support mon if the thing doesn't get Taunt and Gunk Shot.
 
Complaints aside, I was thinking of what other possible tech there could be

Dachsbun may actually work this time. Differently from its mediocre special bulk, it has strong phisical bulk on top of the ability buffing it further, immune to main stab while resisting the Tera coverage, unless it has Gunk Shot it should be gucci, and it learns both Charm and Baby Doll eyes as well as Mud-Slap (if it has HJK and you can cheese the miss with Mud-Slap i'll die of laughter), Play Rough comes off some decent attack stat, and if you're feeling frisky it also gets Helping Hand and Wish
There is however the reliance on Ability Shield to not lose the fire immunity.

Without ability shield, as far as offensive options...
Pelipper also resists both stab and tera, carries rain to nerf Pyro ball and packs supereffective Hurricane + Roost for recovery so could tecnically be usable
Armarouge could work as well, resists the tera while resisting the stab even without the ability, hits back supereffectively, and most notably is one of the very few Clear Smog users available (toghether with Ceruledge who however would never run it anyway).

I struggle to see any defensive/utility option other than Toxapex and Slowbro though.
Carbink feels good on paper until one notices it has no recovery so it'd put up reflect then just look at the rabbit funnily...
 
Carbink is also has a lesser known issue with it, namely that it is not currently available to use.
Good point, and idk why I thought it was.
I must have been playing too much Pixelmon again...

(It's amazing how many similarities the two have nowadays... including memory leaks, ending up bounced between battles due to "repositioning" after engaging in a fight, generic camera glitches during combat...)
 
The reason I say support instead of Sword Dance attacker is they don't get any Super Effective Attacks unless you count Tera Blast.
At least you have Psycho Cut, though you're probably safe to spam Bitter Blade for sustain. Even when not very effective the draining moves can work pretty well except on shield untera'd.

There is however the reliance on Ability Shield to not lose the fire immunity.
Note the ability nullify only lasts for one turn so in the long run it may not be that big of a deal depending on when the reset happens. Covert Cloak might be a safe bet again to avoid status.

If the (japanese only) news post they had for tips about Charizard that made it clear its all-special primarily-fire with one coverage move was very purposeful design I think they want these things to be puzzle boxes you can prepare for. There will probably be some combination of moves set up that does have one or two more direct counters, without necessarily chasing the endless snake that is "we gotta counter the primary methods!"
There also will be the minor 5/4 star event mons there to help fight the big boss so we'll see what types gamefreak expects us to use.

As for other possible moves I think Counter would be a very troll pick and it would be funny if it immediately took a second turn to set sun or buff/debuffs after an attack to reference dynamax. If the Cinderace does have Sucker Punch, then at least based on some boss fights it could just spam it repeatedly and allow for safe setup. In general I've noticed that sometimes the AI goes for the consistently strongest option like Kingambit using Kowtow Cleave on Iron Hands and switching to Iron Head after tera Fighting, but other times it can make some random decisions like with Charizard cycling through its inaccurate moves against Azumarill or constantly spamming status on Gholdengo.
 
If the (japanese only) news post they had for tips about Charizard that made it clear its all-special primarily-fire with one coverage move was very purposeful design I think they want these things to be puzzle boxes you can prepare for. There will probably be some combination of moves set up that does have one or two more direct counters, without necessarily chasing the endless snake that is "we gotta counter the primary methods!"
If this is to be the case, considering that Charizard boiled down to "resist main stab, resist tera, don't be weak to 2nd stab", I would expect cinderace to work similarly, so as long as you resist fire and fighting and aren't weak to <insert main coverage, very likely zen headbutt or gunk shot> you should be fine.

On this note
As for other possible moves I think Counter would be a very troll pick and it would be funny if it immediately took a second turn to set sun or buff/debuffs after an attack to reference dynamax. If the Cinderace does have Sucker Punch, then at least based on some boss fights it could just spam it repeatedly and allow for safe setup. In general I've noticed that sometimes the AI goes for the consistently strongest option like Kingambit using Kowtow Cleave on Iron Hands and switching to Iron Head after tera Fighting, but other times it can make some random decisions like with Charizard cycling through its inaccurate moves against Azumarill or constantly spamming status on Gholdengo.
You may notice something if you read all the raids
https://www.serebii.net/scarletviolet/teraraidbattles/6star.shtml

No Sucker Punch, no Solar Blade/Beam, no Substitute, no Belly Drum, no Counter, no 2 turn moves in general, no Aurora Veil, etc.
I think raids are designed in a way that they can always use all of their moves in a given turn, with only way to "fail" a move being immunities or the condition already present.
The only exception i can see is First Impression on... Haxorus? Though this has to be a mistake, like Trick Room on Indeedee-F.

Thus I don't expect Cinderace to have Sucker Punch nor Counter either.
 
On this note

You may notice something if you read all the raids
https://www.serebii.net/scarletviolet/teraraidbattles/6star.shtml

No Sucker Punch, no Solar Blade/Beam, no Substitute, no Belly Drum, no Counter, no 2 turn moves in general, no Aurora Veil, etc.
I think raids are designed in a way that they can always use all of their moves in a given turn, with only way to "fail" a move being immunities or the condition already present.
The only exception i can see is First Impression on... Haxorus? Though this has to be a mistake, like Trick Room on Indeedee-F.

Thus I don't expect Cinderace to have Sucker Punch nor Counter either.
https://www.serebii.net/scarletviolet/teraraidbattles/5star.shtml
Counter from Krookodile and Tatsugiri is infamous for OHKOing people and 5* Bombirdier runs Sucker Punch. Abomasnow and Froslass have Aurora Veil too.

I did fight a First Impression Haxorus and it used it turn 1 pretty well, though then it spammed Outrage on my Azumarill for some reason and started failing without even bringing up the immune message.
 
Axew gets First Impression as an Egg Move, so while it is odd to see a "first turn only" move in a Raid it's a legal move (unlike female Indeedee, which was likely an oversight). 4* Raid Medicham & 2* Meditite also run Fake Out
 
https://www.serebii.net/scarletviolet/teraraidbattles/5star.shtml
Counter from Krookodile and Tatsugiri is infamous for OHKOing people and 5* Bombirdier runs Sucker Punch. Abomasnow and Froslass have Aurora Veil too.

I did fight a First Impression Haxorus and it used it turn 1 pretty well, though then it spammed Outrage on my Azumarill for some reason and started failing without even bringing up the immune message.
Axew gets First Impression as an Egg Move, so while it is odd to see a "first turn only" move in a Raid it's a legal move (unlike female Indeedee, which was likely an oversight). 4* Raid Medicham & 2* Meditite also run Fake Out
Oh, interesting, I have never bothered checking 5 and 4 star since 4 stars usually go down within 1 turn and *most* 5 star are easy with lvl 100s anyway.
There's even a Sucker Punch there.

Well nvm then, up in the air :tymp:
We're all gonna die.

You guys however don't know of the 99Head tech some guy I know came up with.

Hold it.

Eviolite Shellder.
Lvl 90 0 Atk Libero Cinderace High Jump Kick vs. 252 HP / 252 Def Eviolite Shellder: 69-82 (26.1 - 31%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
No, really, learns Life dew, chilling water, and can basically do the same I was doing on Blissey, spam Life Dew while the other 3 actually do damage.
 
Eviolite Shellder.
Lvl 90 0 Atk Libero Cinderace High Jump Kick vs. 252 HP / 252 Def Eviolite Shellder: 69-82 (26.1 - 31%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
No, really, learns Life dew, chilling water, and can basically do the same I was doing on Blissey, spam Life Dew while the other 3 actually do damage.
7 star raids are level 100, and it's very likely Cinderace will be adamant natured considering Zard was modest. The calc would look more like this:

0+ Atk Cinderace High Jump Kick vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Eviolite Shellder: 84-100 (31.8 - 37.8%) -- 92.8% chance to 3HKO

Doesn't matter all that much, but you take more than you'd expect.
 
Eh, still works out tbh.

Speaking of which, I was actually wondering, what happens to a raid if they miss HJK? The only one I could see that has it is Tsareena and I don't think I bothered more than once...
 

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