Announcement National Dex Suspect 8: Red Rabbits

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:ss/cinderace:

Hey everyone, Dragapult's suspect test launched around a month ago and it's been banned for about 2 weeks. In those 2 weeks, the metagame has stabilized to a point where we are now happy to evaluate Cinderace's position in the current metagame!

Suspect Test Reasoning

Cinderace has been a requested suspect pretty much ever since it gained access to Libero. Thanks to Libero, it gains STAB on every move it uses; this increases its potency as a wallbreaker by a lot. When you take the fact that it has a very colorful movepool into account, with moves like Gunk Shot for Clefable and Slowbro, High Jump Kick for Heatran, and Zen Headbutt for Toxapex, it is not hard to see why Cinderace may be difficult to deal with.

Because of its wide movepool, it requires a lot of dedication in the teambuilder; when using Toxapex as your check, you will oftentimes need a softer secondary check like Choice Scarf Landorus-T in case it is running Zen Headbutt. If you're using Heatran as a check, you will need another check like Slowbro in case it's running High Jump Kick -- you get the point. This issue is amplified even further when Cinderace is supported by a Future Sight, after which it becomes almost impossible to switch into.

Beyond that, its blistering Speed tier combined with the fact that it can hold Heavy-Duty Boots makes it incredibly hard to wear down with entry hazards; you can pretty much only wear it down through Rocky Helmet on Pokemon like Hippowdon, Toxapex, and Slowbro. However, even that isn't a foolproof solution as the Cinderace user may make smart switches instead to prevent it from being worn down too quickly.

The fact that Cinderace can even run Z-Moves on Bulk Up sets is certainly something worth noting too. While these sets have seen less and less usage as the metagame's evolved due to just how useful Heavy-Duty Boots is as an item, they still amplify Cinderace's potential as an offensive threat. Most notably, Darkinium Z + Sucker Punch can immediately overwhelm would-be-checks to Bulk Up Cinderace like Slowbro and Mega Latias. These sets generally struggle with coverage, but if it is facing the right build, it can quickly spiral out of control. It is still an extra variable to take into account.

With that said, it's not like Cinderace is entirely uncheckable; counterplay does exist. Alomomola is by far and away the best check to Cinderace; it's really only bothered by a poison from Gunk Shot, but even that doesn't make Cinderace too hard to handle. Other defensive checks like Toxapex, Hippowdon, Slowbro, defensive Landorus-T, and Heatran are certainly viable checks too, but they are quite circumstantial and otherwise struggle with longevity. Its high Speed tier does limit offensive counterplay to an extent, but Pokemon like Mega Lopunny, Ash-Greninja, and Spectrier can keep Cinderace in check.

There's also the argument that Cinderace simply cannot run every move at once. On non-Bulk Up sets, Pyro Ball and U-turn are a given, but outside of those 2 moves it has to fit 2 of Gunk Shot, Zen Headbutt, High Jump Kick, and Sucker Punch. That can certainly make it struggle in specific matchups.

Suspect Test Information
  • Reading this is mandatory to participate in the suspect test. The voting requirements are a minimum GXE of 80 with at least 50 games played. In addition, you may play 1 less game for every 0.2 GXE you have above 80 GXE, down to a minimum of 30 games at a GXE of 84. Also, doing more than 50 games to reach 80 GXE will suffice.
  • GXEminimum games
    8050
    80.249
    80.448
    80.647
    80.846
    8145
    81.244
    81.443
    81.642
    81.841
    8240
    82.239
    82.438
    82.637
    82.836
    8335
    83.234
    83.433
    83.632
    83.831
    8430
  • You must use a fresh account that begins with the given prefix for this suspect test. That prefix is NXACE. For example, I could signup and qualify with the name NXACE Jordy.
  • You may not impersonate or mock another user with your account name. If there is any slight hesitation, you're probably better off picking a different name. We reserve the right to null your voting requisites if you are found impersonating or mocking another user with your account name. Moderator discretion will be applied.
  • If you are found trying to manipulate voting requisites in any way, you will be met with a harsh infraction. Manipulating voting requisites ranges from faking your screenshot to asking another user to forfeit.
  • The Pokemon that's being suspect tested, Cinderace, will be allowed on the National Dex ladder for the next two weeks so that we can properly assess its position in the metagame.
  • This suspect test will go on for two weeks. It will last until December the 22nd at 11:59 PM GMT+1.
 
Suspect Test Rules
  • You are required to make sure that whatever you are arguing for is in-line with the Tiering Policy Framework. If what you're arguing for isn't, there's a very high chance that your post will be deleted.
  • No uninformed one liners or posts;
  • No discussion on other potential suspect tests;
  • No discussion on the suspect test process.
  • Your posts are expected to be respectful, please do not insult anyone.
  • If you fail to follow these rules, you may be infracted without any prior warning.
If there are any questions, feel free to PM myself or Jho. If there are any questions about the moderation of this thread, you should feel free to PM the moderation team.
 
You will be able to find thoughts of council members in this post. Their thoughts will be edited in over the next couple of days.

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ng up the OP of this suspect test I was pretty convinced that Cinderace should not be banned. I mean; it cannot fit all the coverage moves it wants at once and it does have competent counterplay. However, after writing up the OP, my opinion quite rapidly changed, as it really put into perspective what Cinderace does to the metagame and how it fits into it at large.

There's no need for me to repeat what is stated in the OP; I'm not here to waste your time. I do want to talk about how Cinderace's need for coverage doesn't hamper it very substantially, how easily it's supported, and why its movepool is an issue.

So, why does Cinderace's need for coverage and lack of available moveslots not really hamper it? Because of how hard it is to punish. Anyone who's played a lot against and with Cinderace knows how hard it is to wear down and punish at all despite its frailty. This mostly stems from its incredibly fast U-turns combined with Heavy-Duty Boots negating Stealth Rock damage. Cinderace's checks are generally quite slow, barring Choice Scarf Landorus-T, and quite passive on top of that; whatever Pokemon you do not have coverage for, you can just U-turn out against. If you drop High Jump Kick, you can still U-turn out of Heatran and gradually wear it down, etc. There's nothing the defender can really do about it.

The point about how easily it's supported definitely plays into the above point. Spikes support can enable dropping High Jump Kick, for example; Heatran has no reliable recovery and switching into Stealth Rock + Spikes racks up for it really quickly. Especially if its Leftovers get removed by Ferrothorn too. Slowbro is another example of a Pokemon that excellently supports Cinderace. With a Future Sight behind it, Cinderace's checks pretty much crumble entirely and Teleport makes it so much easier to get into play.

In my eyes, saying that Cinderace suffers from 4MSS is a wrong interpretation of what's really going on; Cinderace can freely pick its checks and counters and still get past those it should theoretically be checked by thanks to some great support options available to it. This is amplified by its fast U-turn in combination with Heavy-Duty Boots which makes it ridiculously difficult to wear down and realistically punish.

The sheer fact that Cinderace has so many options to its name is an issue alone; it requires extensive preparation in the teambuilder and you will often see bulkier teams run 2 or 3 of Toxapex, Hippowdon, Slowbro, Heatran, Tapu Fini, Garchomp, Landorus-T etc. just to competently cover it. Ofcourse these Pokemon have other valid niches in the metagame, but they do have quite a bit of overlap and are oftentimes merely run together because of Cinderace. Cinderace harshly restricts teambuilding and teambuilding is already quite restrictive in this metagame.

It is true that Cinderace adds something to the metagame as one of the best options for Speed control in a metagame that generally struggles with that. It is also a strong component of bulky offense teams that may otherwise struggle to thrive. However, I do not think that outweighs the issues I pointed out above. Personally, I don't see the point about bulky offense as valid because making sure bulky offensive teams are viable is an arbitrary and misguided milestone in my eyes.

I will be voting ban on Cinderace.

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So, the bunny is finally being tested. I don't think it should be banned, and I will provide my reasoning below.

Four move slot syndrome:

for some mons 4mss is actually beneficial for their success, take megagross. It can always have something to beat you. That is not the case here at all, choosing being walled by pex, fini, lando, or slowbro is a tough choice to have to make and one that can often cost you games.

Offensive pressure:

The bunny tends to have a speed tier just lower then some prominent offensive mons such as tapu koko and greninja, scarf landorus therian, while not being great in the meta, still can switch in and force it out/kill it outright. The prominence of ttar + excadrill cores existing is also terrible for it, with excadrill again outspeeding and threatening an ohko (albeit with a sack as it cannot switch in).

These 2 reasons make it very good, however not bannable.
 
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Although I kind of dislike playing against it, as well as despising the existence of boots, I think I'm leaning a bit towards NO BAN, Although this could be subject to change.

Reason 1: Underutilized counterplay.
As it stands right now, aces most prominent counterplay are defensive grounds like Lando-T and Hippo, as well as Slowbro, who doubles as a good partner. These are the most prominent ones in the metagame, however I believe the metagame should be given more time to adapt, as there are other great options as well. Alomomola has seen use only on stall, however I believe it can fit on other team styles as well given time. Tank Chomp is not utilized nearly enough, punishing its uturns with a ton of damage, since were unable to wear down Ace with hazards. Moltres is another one who I believe is super underutilized, potentially punishing a lot of its attacks with a burn and crippling it for the rest of the game. Heatran I feel can be used a bit more creatively too, as I find Protect to be ridiculously underutilized on it, possibly punishing an HJK with 50% damage. Even further, Heatran + Spectrier can potentially provide a more offensive counterplay to Ace, being able to swtich around its moves semi-reliably. It's also possible Gliscor could adjust its spreads to better handle Ace, and instead pair with other answers to things like Heatran or the other special threats it checks. Even the Rotoms have potential to check it, but currently arent used very much. Also if anyone is willing to try it, RestTalk Gyara could be a thing, but It's more of a gen 4 joke.

Reason 2: A Slightly faster offensive metagame.
While Cinderaces speed tier is quite high, it comes just short of things like Greninja, Tapu Koko, Spectrier, Weavile, Mega Lopunny. Koko and Spectrier get special mention, as Koko has risen with its specs sets to become a strong pivot in a metagame dominated by Blissey, and Spectrier is able to abuse Blissey as well. Mega Lopunny has fallen off a cliff honestly, but Greninja stays around to provide strong priority and Spikes. Weavile is also quite prominent since Mega Latias is quite the threat. Rillaboom is quite common as well, and Ace's bulk is a bit too low to handle its priority, which can usually 2hko it.

These reasons are not without flaws however. Future Sight + Ace can cause quite a headache for a lot of checks, and adaptions from the Ace player can cause a few problems in the future, as well as the fact that Bulk Up makes checking it a little bit harder. Also, the fact that is switches in to basically no end and cannot take hazard damage is quite stupid in my opinion, and I despise boots with my whole being, so I would be open to a second suspect in the future if enough support is amassed.

So yeah if boots annoys me enough on ladder I'll probably change my vote, but for now this is my thoughts on the matter.
Fuck Boots

Edit: Alright so like I said I played ladder and realized this shit is broken, so my opinion has done a complete 180, now aligning more with R8's and Jordy's post. Have a nice day.
 
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Before writing up the OP of this suspect test I was pretty convinced that Cinderace should not be banned. I mean; it cannot fit all the coverage moves it wants at once and it does have competent counterplay. However, after writing up the OP, my opinion quite rapidly changed, as it really put into perspective what Cinderace does to the metagame and how it fits into it at large.

There's no need for me to repeat what is stated in the OP; I'm not here to waste your time. I do want to talk about how Cinderace's need for coverage doesn't hamper it very substantially, why its movepool is an issue, and how easily it's supported.

So, why does Cinderace's need for coverage and lack of available moveslots not really hamper it? Because of how hard it is to punish. Anyone who's played a lot against and with Cinderace knows how hard it is to wear down and punish at all despite its frailty. This mostly stems from its incredibly fast U-turns combined with Heavy-Duty Boots negating Stealth Rock damage. Cinderace's checks are generally quite slow, barring Choice Scarf Landorus-T, and quite passive on top of that; whatever Pokemon you do not have coverage for, you can just U-turn out against. If you drop High Jump Kick, you can still U-turn out of Heatran and gradually wear it down, etc. There's nothing the defender can really do about it.

The sheer fact that Cinderace has so many options to its name is an issue alone; it requires extensive preparation in the teambuilder and you will often see bulkier teams run 2 or 3 of Toxapex, Hippowdon, Slowbro, Heatran, Tapu Fini, Garchomp, Landorus-T etc. just to competently cover it. Ofcourse these Pokemon have other valid niches in the metagame, but they do have quite a bit of overlap and are oftentimes merely run together because of Cinderace. Cinderace harshly restricts teambuilding and teambuilding is already quite restrictive in this metagame.

The point about how easily it's supported definitely plays into the first point. Spikes support can enable dropping High Jump Kick, for example; Heatran has no reliable recovery and switching into Stealth Rock + Spikes racks up for it really quickly. Especially if its Leftovers get removed by Ferrothorn too. Slowbro is another example of a Pokemon that excellently supports Cinderace. With a Future Sight behind it, Cinderace's checks pretty much crumble entirely and Teleport makes it so much easier to get into play.

In my eyes, saying that Cinderace suffers from 4MSS is a wrong interpretation of what's really going on; Cinderace can freely pick its checks and counters and still get past those it should theoretically be checked by thanks to some great support options available to it. This is amplified by its fast U-turn in combination with Heavy-Duty Boots which makes it ridiculously difficult to wear down and realistically punish.

It is true that Cinderace adds something to the metagame as one of the best options for Speed control in a metagame that generally struggles with that. It is also a strong component of bulky offense teams that may otherwise struggle to thrive. However, I do not think that outweighs the issues I pointed out above. Personally, I don't see the point about bulky offense as valid because making sure bulky offensive teams are viable is an arbitrary and misguided milestone in my eyes, just like how making sure that stall is the best would be.

I will be voting ban on Cinderace.
 
I guess I'll repost my thoughts from the OU discussion thread. Ngl this was a tough one but I'm going to go with BAN

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Despite there being a number of things that can eat multiple hits from Cinderace, it is a Pokemon that never dies because of Heavy Duty Boots and the insane momentum and switches it forces makes it a pain in the ass to deal with. It's definitely unhealthy. It's really good at creating unhealthy mind games because it doesn't really lose much or get punished like if at all for clicking either Pyro Ball on something that's threatened by it or a powerful U-turn or even Sucker Punch because unless the opponent has a status move then spamming Sucker Punch is pretty free and protects you from taking damage from something faster that's either threatened by a Dark STAB or too weakened to survive it. Pyro Ball is not a contact move so it's a pretty free drawback powerful 120 BP move that can sometimes even burn and cost you the game. Oh yeah but it's only 10% well that doesn't matter when Cinderace gets plenty of chances to get in on the field and kick that ball. So the chances of burn haxing are not really that low in practice. Gunk Shot is another move that makes Ace problematic which sometimes forces scouts when it doesn't even have the move. I call these phantom moves. Because Cinderace has so many viable moves you pretty much have to expect the worse when you're facing it and this makes playing against Cinderace really awkward. There's also Z move and Scarf and Band which only adds to the versatility of this Pokemon. It is not a one trick pony and it will put in work always. I can't think of a match up at all where it doesn't put in a good if not amazing amount of work. Put emphasis on amazing because not many other Pokemon have the same ability to do that to the extent of Cinderace and with that level of consistency. Oh yeah and the huge momentum it creates as a team player is like Genesect levels of good because of how often hard it is to stay in on this Pokemon when it gets STAB on it's entire movepool. Gamefreak designed this Pokemon to be good in singles but I do feel like they did go a bit overboard with this Pokemon however. So yeah I don't think it's as broken as some of the past suspects (Dracovish) but something National Dex OU is better off without. Oh and I almost forgot how this Pokemon can choose it's weaknesses and resistances with it's moves and this only adds to how difficult this Pokemon can be to deal with.

And this Pokemon does not have 4MSS lmao. I feel like the people that say this just haven't faced the right sets or played a well played Cinderace. Electro Ball is a perfectly fine move to use over Zen Headbutt as it covers both Slowbro and Pex in one slot for example while also nailing Pelipper to prevent it from coming in a few times to get the rain up. Since they're so slow Electro Ball is a 2HKO despite Cinderace's bad special attack.
 

Guard

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:ss/cinderace:

I do not believe Cinderace is broken & warrants a ban, in stark contrast to a few months ago. It's quite apparent what changed within this time-frame for me to switch opinions: Cinderace's unpredictability dropped off a cliff. Z-Move sets are nowhere to be seen, since they require more team support and better positioning, in addition to forgoing a huge part of Cinderace's flexibility on non-hyper offensive builds due to the loss of U-turn. Admittedly, the ceiling-height of Z-Move sets is quite appealing, but the cost of not running Heavy-Duty Boots significantly overweighs the positives of a Z-Move on the whole. Ergo, in terms of set versatility on team preview, Cinderace has turned into a pretty linear presence, with 4-Attacks U-turn being predominant on balance and bulky offense, and Bulk Up Heavy-Duty Boots being predominant on hyper offense. The only versatility Cinderace truly sports is in terms of its movepool; with only Pyro Ball and either Bulk Up or U-turn being mandatory, proper scouting must be done in order to figure out which two remaining moves Cinderace is running, out of High Jump Kick, Gunk Shot, Zen Headbutt, and the occasional Sucker Punch.

This brings me to my second point: scouting Cinderace is not rocket science. Toxapex, Hippowdon, Alomomola, and Gliscor can all do this to a great degree against 4-Attack variants. Toxapex easily switches into Cinderace, tanking even Zen Headbutt quite comfortably. From there, Toxapex is capable of making progress with any of Knock Off, Toxic, or Scald, punishing Cinderace on the predicted U-turn / Zen Headbutt with Baneful Bunker, or just flat-out regaining momentum with Regenerator. Alomomola fears nothing 4-Attacks Cinderace has to offer, apart from a Gunk Shot poison. High Jump Kick fails to hit for a 2HKO after Stealth Rock damage, and U-turn is punished accordingly with Rocky Helmet and recovered off with Regenerator. Hippowdon, similarly, doesn't fear Cinderace's shenanigans too much, outside of a Gunk Shot poison. Pyro Ball and High Jump Kick are recovered off and U-turn is punished with Rocky Helmet. However, it should be noted that Hippowdon is no longer at the forefront of the metagame due to numerous factors. Gliscor recovers off Pyro Ball, cannot be punished by a stray burn or poison, and basically outheals U-turn with Poison Heal. It admittedly cannot punish U-turn like Baneful Bunker Toxapex, and Rocky Helmet Alomomola and Hippowdon can, but this is a non-issue in a situation where Cinderace itself is uncapable of making progress.

Similarly, Bulk Up has a fair share of defensive checks as well. Slowbro and Mega Slowbro come to mind immediately, easily tanking any of boosted Pyro Ball, Gunk Shot, High Jump Kick, and Zen Headbutt, with Slowbro robbing momentum out of Cinderace's hand with Teleport and Mega Slowbro potentially using it as setup bait. Toxapex and Hippowdon remain good checks, with Toxapex punishing Zen Headbutt with Baneful Bunker and hazing away Bulk Up boosts (it does need both Baneful Bunker and Haze, however), and Hippowdon phazing Cinderace out with Whirlwind or stalling it out with the combination of Toxic and Slack Off. Keep in mind that Bulk Up has next to no surprise-potential as well; its presence is negligible outside of hyper offense.

This is not even considering the plethora of soft-checks you can run alongside these hard-checks. It's not unrealistic at all for Pokemon like Heatran, Tapu Fini, Garchomp, and Landorus-T to function as strong back-up checks once Cinderace has been scouted, or even serve as one-time scouts themselves. Zapdos is also worth mentioning in this context. While it cannot truly check Cinderace due to Gunk Shot and Pyro Ball hitting for an uncomfortable amount of damage, it heavily discourages Cinderace spamming U-turn by virtue of Static, which takes away a large component of Cinderace's tendency to go unpunished (outside of Baneful Bunker and Rocky Helmet, that is).

To add onto all of the aforementioned, Cinderace's Speed tier, while good, is not blistering. Furthermore, Sucker Punch is a luxury Cinderace cannot afford in the vast majority of instances. As such, popular Pokemon such as Weavile, Choice Scarf Landorus-T, Spectrier, Mega Medicham, Sucker Punch Mega Mawile, Ditto, and Tapu Koko are very capable of containing Cinderace's late-game cleaning potential, should it manage to get past its designed checks. Some other forms of Speed control in Mega Lopunny, Ash-Greninja, and Excadrill are capable of this feat as well, although they aren't in the best position currently.

With both hard-checks, soft-checks, and Speed control being readily available, it's really not hard to build multiple teams with different backbones that can handle Cinderace, with not only the purpose of handling Cinderace, but many additional threats as well. Cinderace is merely one of the frontrunners of our metagame, and needs to be prioritized over most other threats. This is not something that should be regarded as typical of a broken Pokemon. Rather, it's simply a characteristic trait of Pokemon that offer more potent offensive qualities compared to the rest of the metagame, in a healthy degree I should add.

As a sidenote, I realize one may argue that none of these Pokemon can afford to stand in front of Cinderace once it's backed up by a Future Sight. This is not an issue I can discard. However, I adamantly believe this is an issue that finds its roots in how Slowbro guarantees inevitable progress-making in an almost Dugtrio-esque style. Slowbro will continue to showcase this unhealthy interaction even if Cinderace ends up banned. Weavile, Choice Specs Magearna, Mega Lopunny, and Mega Charizard Y are examples of Pokemon that become incredibly tricky to manage with Future Sight looming over the field. On top of Future Sight, I also believe Teleport (Slowbro ánd Blissey for the record) is one of the major offenders that masks Cinderace's frailty in so many instances. Cinderace's bulk is really not adequate enough for it to switch into battle much otherwise, outside of the occasional pivot into Clefable's Moonblast or Mega Scizor's Bullet Punch.

Cinderace may require a good deal of commitment in the teambuilder, but it does not necessarily centralize it like Mega Metagross or Zygarde used to, it does not mandate the usage of fringe-viable Pokemon like Urshifu used to, and it has a very healthy amount of multi-purposed checks unlike Pokemon such as Mega Blastoise, Tornadus-T, or Dragapult. I see little logic in banning Cinderace, and would much rather focus on, in my opinion, truly unhealthy and centralizing Pokemon such as Blissey, Magearna, Slowbro, and possibly Mega Latias.

Do Not Ban
 

R8

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So, the bunny is finally being tested. I don't think it should be banned, and I will provide my reasoning below.

Four move slot syndrome:

for some mons 4mss is actually beneficial for their success, take megagross. It can always have something to beat you. That is not the case here at all, choosing being walled by pex, fini, lando, or slowbro is a tough choice to have to make and one that can often cost you games.

Offensive pressure:

The bunny tends to have a speed tier just lower then some prominent offensive mons such as tapu koko and greninja, scarf landorus therian, while not being great in the meta, still can switch in and force it out/kill it outright. The prominence of ttar + excadrill cores existing is also terrible for it, with excadrill again outspeeding and threatening an ohko (albeit with a sack as it cannot switch in).

These 2 reasons make it very good, however not bannable.
First, i think the 4mss isn't a good reason to vote Do Not Ban, and for two reasons:
>First, it's really easy to overcome that 4mss with team support, mainly thanks to future sight bro and pursuit users. For example, cinderace can just click on u turn vs slowbro and bring ttar, which can remove slowbro from the game and allows cinderace to go crazy late game.
FSight deal enough damages to most cinderace "counters" to allow the bunny to 2hko them easily, especially since their special bulk is lacking.
While i agree Slowbro might the broken one in that specific case, i'll develop later on the post why Cind is broken even without Slowbro. (Especially since FSight + Cind isn't always easy to pull off in practice. Also, yes, predicting the teleport by hardswitching into you cind counter technically work, but they can just teleport into something not named Cinderace.)
Keep in mind that in most cases, the counter would need to switch in cinderace, and take two moves from cind + the future sight. Of course, most of these are fucked if cinderace click u turn.
0 SpA Slowbro Future Sight vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Hippowdon: 169-201 (40.2 - 47.8%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
252 Atk Cinderace Pyro Ball vs. 252 HP / 248+ Def Hippowdon: 117-138 (27.8 - 32.8%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
252 Atk Libero Cinderace High Jump Kick vs. 252 HP / 248+ Def Hippowdon: 127-150 (30.2 - 35.7%) -- 37.3% chance to 3HKO
Roll: 89,8%-107,4%, accounting leftovers recovery (i just did -6)
It would need to stay at absolute full hp at all times to stand a chance against cind, and even then can die.
0 SpA Slowbro Future Sight vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Toxapex: 192-228 (63.1 - 75%) -- guaranteed 2HKO (LOL)
252 Atk Cinderace Pyro Ball vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Toxapex: 48-57 (15.7 - 18.7%) -- possible 6HKO
Roll: 88,5%-106,4% accounting black sludge recovery (i just did -6)
Rocks = death.
0 SpA Slowbro Future Sight vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Moltres: 148-175 (38.5 - 45.5%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
252 Atk Libero Cinderace Gunk Shot vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Moltres: 141-166 (36.7 - 43.2%) -- 98.2% chance to 3HKO (It probably never runs max max but whatever)
Roll: 111,9% - 131,9%

>Even if it has a 4mss, it does not make it easily manageable. Even without any team support, it has ways to beat most of his defensive answers, and therefore no mon is a consistent switch in to it. Pair that with a very correct speed tier (Especially in a very slow paced tier), and you get a problem. Imo, we aren't suspecting only cinderace because it's really good at what it does, but because this thing is restricting as F, since it has limited and inconsistent counterplay, basically forcing some teams to have two counters to it (And EVEN with that, cinderace still manage to be one of the best pokemons in the metagame).

Second, the existence of mons outspeeding and KOing it do not makes cinderace less dangerous. Thanks to his great speed tier, and the fact that this meta is kind of slow paced, he actually can have many opportunities to come in the field through pivoting teammates, and forcing a switch, or a sac.
It even can be a threat against ttar sand teams, since it can directly threaten ttar with hjk and can potentially u turn on the forced switch, grabbing momentum. Forcing weavile in also can be in Cind's user advantage, since weavile is stealth rocks weak.


Although I kind of dislike playing against it, as well as despising the existence of boots, I think I'm leaning a bit towards NO BAN, Although this could be subject to change.

Reason 1: Underutilized counterplay.
As it stands right now, aces most prominent counterplay are defensive grounds like Lando-T and Hippo, as well as Slowbro, who doubles as a good partner. These are the most prominent ones in the metagame, however I believe the metagame should be given more time to adapt, as there are other great options as well. Alomomola has seen use only on stall, however I believe it can fit on other team styles as well given time. Tank Chomp is not utilized nearly enough, punishing its uturns with a ton of damage, since were unable to wear down Ace with hazards. Moltres is another one who I believe is super underutilized, potentially punishing a lot of its attacks with a burn and crippling it for the rest of the game. Heatran I feel can be used a bit more creatively too, as I find Protect to be ridiculously underutilized on it, possibly punishing an HJK with 50% damage. Even further, Heatran + Spectrier can potentially provide a more offensive counterplay to Ace, being able to swtich around its moves semi-reliably. It's also possible Gliscor could adjust its spreads to better handle Ace, and instead pair with other answers to things like Heatran or the other special threats it checks. Even the Rotoms have potential to check it, but currently arent used very much. Also if anyone is willing to try it, RestTalk Gyara could be a thing, but It's more of a gen 4 joke.

Reason 2: A Slightly faster offensive metagame.
While Cinderaces speed tier is quite high, it comes just short of things like Greninja, Tapu Koko, Spectrier, Weavile, Mega Lopunny. Koko and Spectrier get special mention, as Koko has risen with its specs sets to become a strong pivot in a metagame dominated by Blissey, and Spectrier is able to abuse Blissey as well. Mega Lopunny has fallen off a cliff honestly, but Greninja stays around to provide strong priority and Spikes. Weavile is also quite prominent since Mega Latias is quite the threat. Rillaboom is quite common as well, and Ace's bulk is a bit too low to handle its priority, which can usually 2hko it.

These reasons are not without flaws however. Future Sight + Ace can cause quite a headache for a lot of checks, and adaptions from the Ace player can cause a few problems in the future, as well as the fact that Bulk Up makes checking it a little bit harder. Also, the fact that is switches in to basically no end and cannot take hazard damage is quite stupid in my opinion, and I despise boots with my whole being, so I would be open to a second suspect in the future if enough support is amassed.

So yeah if boots annoys me enough on ladder I'll probably change my vote, but for now this is my thoughts on the matter.
Fuck Boots
Problem is that, according to the set, all of these counterplay can die, even without the pursuit/fsight support.
Lando-T can be weakened pretty quickly. Cind is even sometimes used to weaken lando, so you can't even hard switch it into cind without playing his own game.
Hippo is probably one of the best out there, but is forced to take a +1 HJK against BU variants to whirlwind it, leaving it really weakened. It can also be crippled by gunk poisons, and his passivity make it easy to take advantage off if cind clicks u turn.

Slowbro, if we ignore the fact that it could be trapped by ttar and weavile, can easily have some issues vs gunk ace. Since u turn outdamages regenerator a bit, the poison chance (which is around 24%, taking gunk accuracy into account) is a non negligible danger. You can argue this isn't really a reliable way to deal with slowbro, it results that slowbro is also a shacky check to cind.
Slowbro can also die to rarer but existing sets, such a darkinium BU sets and electro balls sets (Either paired with koko or using work up).

Alomomola is a very good cind counter, and can even beat electro ball cind under favorables circumstances, but has passivity issues, and is annoyed by gunk shot. This mon only fit on very bulky archetypes imo, that can prevent that passivity from being a problem.

Tankchomp dies to HJK after rocks: 252 Atk Libero Cinderace High Jump Kick vs. 252 HP / 4 Def Garchomp: 204-241 (48.5 - 57.3%) -- 94.5% chance to 2HKO . It weakens cinderace a LOT in the process, he's not enough to take cinderace out. Okay no i was flat out wrong. Chomp runs heavy defensive investment, avoiding the 2HKO by a large margin.
Also tankchomp is good mostly because of cind imo. Outside of the cind-checking role, this mon isn't that great.

Heatran+spect is unreliable by nature. You still will have a bad matchup vs cinderace with that, even if it won't be easy for the cind user too.

Gliscor is a very good point though. Cinder has big issues breaking this mon, and is a bit underestimated at this role imo. I don't think it would have issues with bulk up sets either. Cind having only one good counter doesn't sound really healthy though, especially with his more than decent speed tier.

Rotoms are rotoms. They aren't that great now imo, and also have longevity issues.


About the offensives answers, they indeed can revenge kill cinderace, but cinder is far harder to wall than some of the threats you mentionned (Like gren and lopunny) and can win anyway in the long term thanks to hazards (Weavile could be forced to click pursuit against it at some point, which isn't without risks)
 
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This is the first time I've laddered for a suspect test, originally with the intention of voting not to ban Cinderace. I wanted to vote no ban because I felt that it's the usual case of banning another offensive mon and gradually steering toward a more defensive metagame. At this point, though, I'm genuinely not sure what I want to do. I think Cinderace alone is extremely strong, but manageable. The problem is that when it's paired with other pokemon forms such an insane amount of pressure that at times feels really overwhelming. I laddered with a RAIN TEAM and felt threatened by Cinderace not necessarily because of the pokemon itself, but because until you know all 4 moves on that particular person's set, you have to play VERY safe around it all the time or risk your team falling apart. During this time it gives free momentum to your opponent with u-turn, avoids hazards in the process, and is remarkably easy to support both offensively and defensively. Cinderace + Ash Gren is such a punishing offensive combination, while Cinderace + something like Slowbro is a tried and true nightmare to deal with sometimes.

I went from hard set on no ban to almost leaning toward ban now. I'm really curious what everyone else is thinking now.
 
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Shurtugal

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I made requirements and would like to share my thoughts.

Going into this, I was expecting Cinderace to be broken; however, I have come to the conclusion that Cinderace is actually healthy for ND OU.

I really want to echo Guard's sentiments: Cinderace has a healthy amount of natural checks/counters in the teambuilder screen, and scouting its set isn't a rocket science. There are plenty of options from a defensive point of view (Toxapex Slowbro Hippowdown Landorus-Therian Alomomola Gliscor etc) and an offensive one (Dragonite MAero Koko Greninja MLati@s Garchomp Excadrill etc), enough so where you are not constricted in the teambuilder. It's quite easy to build a team in this meta that has "natural" answers to Cinderance; Pokemon like Slowbro would be used even if Cinderace were go, to name an example.

Jordy said:
The fact that Cinderace can even run Z-Moves on Bulk Up sets is certainly something worth noting too. While these sets have seen less and less usage as the metagame's evolved due to just how useful Heavy-Duty Boots is as an item, they still amplify Cinderace's potential as an offensive threat. Most notably, Darkinium Z + Sucker Punch can immediately overwhelm would-be-checks to Bulk Up Cinderace like Slowbro and Mega Latias. These sets generally struggle with coverage, but if it is facing the right build, it can quickly spiral out of control. It is still an extra variable to take into account.
I don't actually believe this is unhealthy. In my ladder experience, ND OU felt like a very defensive meta, and I think something like Z-moves/BU Cinderace is appreciated to keep them in check. It is not like Cinderace can run this set safely either; it comes at the cost opportunity of an item slot (no Heavy Duty Boots) & a coverage move, making Cinderace's overall potential weaker, in exchange for being strong against particular playstyles. To me, this is a healthy exchange--you are sacrificing resources that would otherwise make Cinderace a more consistent threat in order to improve the matchup against fat teams. The lack of coverage, and immunity to SR would make it easy pickings for an offensive team (and a defensive team that could set up the hazards early on). As alluded to, defensive playstyle seems to be strong (or bulky offense at least), and having a Pokemon that can help pressure them is healthy in order to prevent the meta from becoming too passive.

Jordy said:
Because of its wide movepool, it requires a lot of dedication in the teambuilder; when using Toxapex as your check, you will oftentimes need a softer secondary check like Choice Scarf Landorus-T in case it is running Zen Headbutt. If you're using Heatran as a check, you will need another check like Slowbro in case it's running High Jump Kick -- you get the point. This issue is amplified even further when Cinderace is supported by a Future Sight, after which it becomes almost impossible to switch into.
I'm not sure I support the idea of using Future Sight support as strong enough reasoning to ban something. I do not mean to derail the thread, but because this is relevant to Cinderace, I believe I must speak up: FuturePort support can turn anything into an impossible-to-switch-into breaker, and if Cinderace were to go, players would simply find the next-best thing to utilize FuturePort (i.e. many, many options). I'm not here to say we need to do anything about FuturePort, but it doesn't sit right with me to use it as a reason to ban Cinderance when the issue with this does not fall on Cinderace's shoulders.

As for the former part of this quote, I believe a lot of Pokemon are like this in the tier, and softer secondary checks are plentiful enough to where this is not a huge issue. (For reference, this is a tier that has Hoopa-Unbound in it, which has a similar issue albeit a much smaller speed tier to work with.)

-.-

Cinderace's speed tier strength is a bit exaggerated, too. Yes, it is quite a fast Pokemon, but it doesn't outspeed the entire unboosted meta, and plenty of "surprise scarf" Pokemon can also catch it off guard (such as Scarf Heatran or Tapu Fini), so I'm not convinced that it's unplayable from an offensive standpoint. I really think what makes Cinderace scary to offense is Sucker Punch, but at best Cinderance is putting itself into a 50-50 situation, not very consistent in comparison to other things that are similar to it.

Quite frankly, I've had much more trouble dealing with Greninja than Cinderance during my ladder run due to its higher versatility in sets, speed, and superior typing. (Read: I am not suggesting to ban Greninja or Cinderace.)

As I stated at the start, I think Cinderace is actually healthy for the tier. It can pressure either balance teams or offenisve teams, but not in a way that is unbeatable or unfair to the enemy. At this point of time, I will be voting No Ban.
 
I made requirements and would like to share my thoughts.

Going into this, I was expecting Cinderace to be broken; however, I have come to the conclusion that Cinderace is actually healthy for ND OU.
I wanna point out a few things in particular that I really dislike about this post.

I really want to echo Guard's sentiments: Cinderace has a healthy amount of natural checks/counters in the teambuilder screen, and scouting its set isn't a rocket science. There are plenty of options from a defensive point of view (Toxapex Slowbro Hippowdown Landorus-Therian Alomomola Gliscor etc) and an offensive one (Dragonite MAero Koko Greninja MLati@s Garchomp Excadrill etc), enough so where you are not constricted in the teambuilder. It's quite easy to build a team in this meta that has "natural" answers to Cinderance; Pokemon like Slowbro would be used even if Cinderace were go, to name an example.
A lot of these "scouting" options are actually pretty bad when going up against Cinderace HO. When faced with Life Orb + Work Up, although it can be very easy to chip the set, a lot of these scouts actually get very easily OHKO'd or take extremely heavy damage when trying to check Cinderace. For example, without heavy Defense investment, Landorus-Therian is actually 2HKO'd by a -1 Pyro Ball - this can truly make it a nightmare to deal with when the set is unknown as you will almost always be sacking a mon unless you have a Landorus or a Hippowdon. It also doesn't help that there are further lures to these sets like Gunk Shot + BU for Slowbro and Alomomola. The same goes for a lot of offensive checks - they are all circumvented by Cinderace's natural bulk or ability to hax - for example, Tapu Koko's Specs Thunderbolt is a 75% chance to OHKO - sure you can happily go for it but it's still not reliably forcing out a Cinderace. The same goes for some of the other mons against a change in Libero typing - you won't always get the advantage on Cinderace and as so it can very much shrug off some of these revenge killers. And whilst you might be right with Greninja & Koko being good checks, the two both pair fantastically with Cinderace and can cause some real hellish pivot games because the two are extremely difficult to stop pivoting when they have the upper hand on momentum.

Whilst this is more of a personal viewpoint than anything to off of, I don't really think Slowbro really is effected by Cinderace going or not. It's a good check but also a mon that highly enables Cinderace and it really goes both ways when talking about it. I can't really say you can judge whether Slowbro is a negative impact on Cinderace counterplay or a positive impact but I know that for one HJK BU variants become a hell of a lot more free.

I don't actually believe this is unhealthy. In my ladder experience, ND OU felt like a very defensive meta, and I think something like Z-moves/BU Cinderace is appreciated to keep them in check. It is not like Cinderace can run this set safely either; it comes at the cost opportunity of an item slot (no Heavy Duty Boots) & a coverage move, making Cinderace's overall potential weaker, in exchange for being strong against particular playstyles. To me, this is a healthy exchange--you are sacrificing resources that would otherwise make Cinderace a more consistent threat in order to improve the matchup against fat teams. The lack of coverage, and immunity to SR would make it easy pickings for an offensive team (and a defensive team that could set up the hazards early on). As alluded to, defensive playstyle seems to be strong (or bulky offense at least), and having a Pokemon that can help pressure them is healthy in order to prevent the meta from becoming too passive.
This statement rarely ever ends up being true. Look at the amount of super strong wallbreakers that National Dex has that screw over most balance builds like Mega Mawile, Spectrier, CM Split Magearna, Mega Heracross and Mega Garchomp - these are more than adequate enough to override the defensive metagame that ND OU seems to have - in my experience, ND OU is actually a very offensively geared metagame, and the current styles that are in use are either extremely good at abusing momentum or happen to have very broken HO picks like the aforementioned Work Up Cinderace, Magearna & Z Spectrier that just make it hellish to have any consistent out vs those builds. You could very much argue the latter two are broken, and I would agree - but based on just how strong LO Work Up Ace is and how hard it is to wall, you can't really ignore the absurd strength that HO currently has, and a nerf to that would be something I would be very happy with.

That being said, whilst I do think Dark Z Ace is pretty bad right now, I can't really disagree with it being "bad" per se vs offensive teams. Even if it risks taking 25% from Stealth Rock it's still managing to mess with you via Sucker Punch and often times it will just claim 1 in most games, even vs Landorus-Therian due to Darkinium Z.

Cinderace's speed tier strength is a bit exaggerated, too. Yes, it is quite a fast Pokemon, but it doesn't outspeed the entire unboosted meta, and plenty of "surprise scarf" Pokemon can also catch it off guard (such as Scarf Heatran or Tapu Fini), so I'm not convinced that it's unplayable from an offensive standpoint. I really think what makes Cinderace scary to offense is Sucker Punch, but at best Cinderance is putting itself into a 50-50 situation, not very consistent in comparison to other things that are similar to it.
I can agree with its Speed tier being overrated - as mentioned, Spectrier, Greninja and Tapu Koko have (fairly) easy times revenge killing it, but the idea of running a "surprise Scarfer" just to beat or lure Cinderace is not something that shows that it is at all healthy, and often times the statement shown here is actually the opposite of the truth, especially when the aforementioned Scarf Heatran is so easy to play around.

Feel free to reply to this with any suggestions of your own btw, I'm open to discussion.
 
After getting reqs a few days ago and losing on ladder, I wanted to share why I will be voting BAN.

Playing a cinderace can be incredibly frustrating. The real checks/counters to it are bulky waters (pex, slowbro, alomomola, pelipper etc), bulky grounds (defensive lando-t, gliscor, garchomp, hippowdon etc), and moltres. Of course, it needs the correct coverage to beat everything, but that's part of the reason it's so good. While it can't have every move, it could have that move. U-turn and pyro are obviously on every set, but there are too many options to scout for.

Of course, bulk up also a good set, but not as good as the pivot set. Darkium Z kills slowbro and lati@s, but that's about it. With sucker punch mindgames, it can also be incredibly difficult to revenge kill. Additionally, it's also surprisingly bulky for such an offensive powerhouse, usually able to live 1 neutral stab attack.

:SS/Rillaboom:

This is undoubtedly cinderace's best teammate. The turn-turn spam can be nearly impossible to deal with if the team doesn't have helmet. The pokemon that switch into rillaboom, mainly steels like scizor and grasses like tangrowth, obviously die to cinderace. In return, rillaboom can force out the grounds and waters that switch into ace and keep up the u-turning. Even if the team does have a helmet user, the grassy terrain makes it so it's only taking about 10% instead of 16% each u-turn.

:SS/Slowbro:

This helps cinderace in a similar way to how rillaboom does. Future sight is mandatory, allowing cinderace to not have to run zen for toxapex. It also doesn't really need to run gunk, because the main faries that are coming to cinderace are clefable and fini. However, it still can be used, because with future sight, gunk does 2hko moltres. Cinderace can pressure the most common answers to slowbro, which are grasses, clefable, and blissey/chansey, all of which cinderace easily beats. In return, slowbro can beat the grounds, moltres, and lopunny (the fastest viable unboosted mon in the meta rn).

:SS/Weavile: :SS/Tyranitar-Mega:

This seems to be pretty overlooked by most people. Pursuit is amazing support for cinderace, able to trap or heavily damage psychics, specifically slowbro and lati@s. Weavile can pressure the grounds and help weaken stuff like fini, or take the helmet from mola or pex allowing cinderace to u-turn for free. In return, cinderace can pressure the main weavile checks, which are steels like scizor and mawile. Ttar helps cinderace by trapping, as well as beating moltres and zapdos. It also changes the weather, as rain generally has a pretty good matchup vs. cinderace.

BAN
 
I will vote NO BAN for Cinderace and this is why

I just don't think Cinderace is broken. On paper, it looks ridiculously good, but in reality it isn't that dangerous. Sure, it has a great ability with Libero, which always gives a Stab and change its type, it has a solid attack with 116 and a very high speed with 119 and a great coverage. This is actually why some people think it's broken.

Like every other Pokemon, Cinderace has some checks and counters and there are enough in my opinion. Pokemon that can switch in mostly against Cinderace are bulky Water types like Toxapex, (mega) Slowbro, Alomomola, Quagsire, Pyukumuku and Suicune, bulky Ground types like Landorus Therian, Hippowdon and Gliscor and other mons like Mandibuzz, Zaptos and Moltres if they don't get a poison by Gunk Shot. If Cinderace hasn't got Gunk shot, Clefable and Tapu Fini can switch in into Cinderace and defeat it, without High Jump Kick, it does nothing against Heatran and a few Rock mons like Diancie, without Zen Headbut it struggles against Toxapex and without Z Sucker Punch it does nothing against Slowbro and it's mega Evolution.

Cinderace can never hit every Pokemon it wants to hit and it doesn't hit hard enough without Life Orb to kill a lot of mons like Tapu Fini, Clefable and mega Charizard y with one hit. If it runs Life Orb, it is able to kill these and many other mons with 1 move, but it doesn't ignore Hazzards which is often a big problem. Here are some calcs:

252 Atk Libero Cinderace Gunk Shot vs. 248 HP / 16 Def Tapu Fini: 318-374 (92.7 - 109%) -- 56.3% chance to OHKO

252 Atk Libero Cinderace Gunk Shot vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Clefable: 320-378 (81.2 - 95.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery

252 Atk Libero Cinderace Gunk Shot vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Charizard-Mega-Y: 220-261 (74 - 87.8%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

It is definetly a very dangerous Pokemon and I can understand why some people want it to go, but Cinderace is definetly not broken here.
 
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Zneon

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Now Cinderace is a very interesting topic because the way it influences National Dex is pretty split by most people. People think it hurts the metagame and should be banned while the anti-ban half thinks that it is manageable and doesn't make the metagame unhealthy at all. As for me, I don't think its a broken Pokemon in my eyes however when I look at what Cinderace does to the metagame, it's a completely different story.

I feel the problem with Cinderace is exactly the reason why I find it to be so ludicrously good. It punishes the opponent incredibly hard without really being punished in return. Its U-turn in combination with Heavy-Duty Boots make sure that Cinderace is always going to do something in game, and its a completely different issue when you factor in its coverage. I feel its coverage options combined with such a potent U-turn is the primary reason why Cinderace is so good and probably ban worthy right now since I feel even if you do bring its checks, which are plenty being Slowbro, Gliscor, Landorus-T, Toxapex, Hippowdon, Alomomola and Garchomp it will still put in massive work. I feel the problem with Cinderace is the fact that due to its coverage options, you can still not be safe in my eyes. Slowbro is a pretty good check to it, however it doesn't want to be poisoned by Gunk Shot, suddenly Slowbro is now on a timer and can just be overwhelmed with Gunk Shot + U-turn if it switches into it. Landorus-T and Garchomp do not have recovery and Cinderace can easily outlast them because of HDB + U-turn, so even if you switch them into Cinderace it will largely be in the players favour outside of the Rough Skin chip from Garchomp. Toxapex is prone to FS shenanigans and Hippowdon and Alomomola, just like Slowbro doesn't want to be poisoned by Gunk Shot while also being pretty easy to take advantage of.

Now like I said, there are a ton of Pokemon that can check Cinderace however checking Cinderace pretty much comes down to using multiple checks or counters to it to make sure the progress it makes more minimal, and this leads to my next point. Cinderace has a very negative impact on teambuilding. Cinderace doesn't really have safe switch ins because they can be taken advantage of after it U-turns to one of its teammates or just crippled by one of its moves, especially Gunk Shot and Pyro Ball but mostly the former. I feel Cinderace is a large contributor on the teambuilding inconsistencies in the metagame. Teams pretty need a check, hell, multiple checks to Cinderace to not be overwhelmed by it, but they also need a suitable check to many other Pokemon, Spectrier, Aegislash, Magearna, Mega Latias, CM Clefable etc. These are very good, very prominent offensive Pokemon and I feel Cinderace's presence limits teambuilding in a metagame that is already really hard to build around.

====

Super long post, and Cinderace is a hard Pokemon to talk about so sorry if my arguments don't come out right. But nonetheless while I am still very conflicted about Cinderace I feel its effect on the metagame makes me feel it should be banned for the better of National Dex.
 

peap

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I have to agree with Zneon and others above, there is no single answer to Cinderace which is a huge constraint in the builder. Providing multiple checks to the various Ace sets is large ask in a metagame when other very good offensive threats (e.g. Spectrier) and bulky wincons (Clef, Latias, Mag) also necessitate specific counterplay. Ace IMO is the unhealthiest of these because
(a) cheap momentum with Heavy-Duty-Boots and/or U-turn, plus​
(b) offensive presence against every team style​
I feel that even if a team is prepared for one Cinderace set, it usually succumbs to another (whereas Dragapult punished balance + offense more, but was dead weight against stall). Again the only exception is hyper offense teams that are KO-trading machines anyway.
  1. Boots :heavy duty boots: + 4 attacks with U-turn: Even when you know it's coming, it can be hard to take back momentum from the pivot vortex. Checks like Pex and Slowbro are U-turned on, and then Ace's teammates make progress, unless you are great and risk the stay-in-on-the-pivot play or have a counter to its partner. A different check can get crippled by Gunk poison if its name is not Hippowdon, Alomomola, or Quagsire.
    This Cinderace set excels against balance when used with typical SpA teammates (e.g. Koko, Spec, and Ash-Gren).
  2. Bulk Up sets: Cinderace sacrifices U-turn for direct offensive power. Can bypass usual checks like Slowbro with chip and +1 Gunk Shot, Pex with +1 Zen. Good vs bulky offense and balance.
    1. Darkinium Z :darkinium z: + Bulk Up Cinderace: Lures and beats Slowbro, similar to Tectonic Rage Greninja vs Pex. I wouldn't count this as a pro-ban Ace argument bc it's not very effective outside of this specific purpose, and good lure sets make the game exciting :)
  3. Work Up :life orb: sets: an uncommon hyper-o pick that also KOs usual bulky waters with +1 Life Orb Electro Ball. This Ace also feeds on balance and bulky offense, although is perhaps the easiest to recognize on team preview.
  4. Court Change: not widely used and IMO underprepped for. Resetting hazard progress is a huge blow vs semi-stall and stall teams that rely on rather passive stacking to win incrementally in the long term. Court Change is not hard to pull off against common hazard setters/blockers like Ferro, Corviknight, Excadrill, and Mega Sableye that are pressured by Cinderace's attacks.
While 3 and 4 are niche, I think they show additional versatility that can't be accounted for with the usual answers to 1 and 2. With good experience, and good scouting as Guard mentioned, it's plenty feasible to beat Cinderace in the actual match. But I'm just uncomfy with accounting for all these sets in the builder as well, which is why I am leaning ban.
 
there is no single answer to Cinderace which is a huge constraint in the builder. Providing multiple checks to the various Ace sets is large ask in a metagame when other very good offensive threats (e.g. Spectrier) and bulky wincons (Clef, Latias, Mag) also necessitate specific counterplay.
This point probably stands out to me the most. The more I read opinions on this the more I shift in favor of voting for a ban because of building with specific plans on how to beat mons like those mentioned. Cinderace having such minimal guaranteed counterplay, such versatility, etc does feel like it adds a lot of extra constraints on teambuilding.
 

ausma

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:ss/cinderace:

Hey all, not really much of a ND player, but I got reqs earlier today and figured I should give my two cents on the actual suspect 'mon at hand given that I actually got the requirements necessary to vote on it, and this seems to be a pretty polarized suspect where every vote will count.

I started playing the tier not very long ago, and I am generally rather impressed with the many viable options that the meta has at its disposal; it's really cool how drastically different, yet structurally similar the metagame is to SS OU with a similar arsenal of Pokemon, but with much more imposing ways to be utilized, especially in tandem with Mega Evolutions and Z-Moves to create for more effective cores.

I fully understand why people consider Cinderace to be broken, and I certainly agree that there is a problem here. Especially with Z-Crystals at its disposal, it's really easy for its setup variants to fly out of hand, and blow past common defensive answers such as Zapdos, Toxapex, and Slowbro with Libero to adapt to practically any Z-move and turn it into an easy, general purpose nuke, even if it is otherwise limited in its moveslots. In addition, it is an incredible offensive swiss army knife even without Z-moves, being capable of battering a range of foes with STAB coverage options, and being able to simply pivot out in the matchups it can't cover. In that regard, it is certainly very effective, and without a doubt for these reasons it is a top tier Pokemon that can be easily slotted into any team in need of power, speed, and momentum. However, I feel that, unlike other U-turn bots, Libero and its adaptable movepool provide a lot of breathing room for teams in need of other utility like hazards and removal without forcing role compression and hurting team compositions in the long term through its ability to compress so much offensively. I don't actually think Cinderace itself is broken, and after pondering on it some, I think the issue with its power is rooted more in the brokenness of Z-moves and the power of Future Sight currently more than anything else.

Z-Moves


I feel that as far as its offensive prowess goes, ultimately, it boils down to being able to completely blow away what matchups should in theory be able to punish its set-up/pivoting sets, be it via the myriad of priority, faster revenge killers, and easily applicable walls like Zapdos, Landorus-T, Toxapex, Gliscor, Slowbro, or Gastrodon that simultaneously compress necessary roles for a team. In my experience, scouting for Cinderace isn't necessarily much of a problem, as the aforementioned defensive options are really flexible and can stomach most of Cinderace's shenanigans while even threatening it with status, important chip damage, or a HDB removal. However, Z-moves in combination with Libero and its range of coverage let it entirely dumpster bulky cores (even outside of those including Slowbro) to a degree that renders natural means of checking its set-up variant wholly irrelevant since it can then easily pick off any theoretical target that could defensively muster its onslaught with a STAB-boosted nuke. Z-Sucker Punch is the worst offender in my opinion, as any answer to it gets blown away by its High Jump Kick/Gunk Shot, and most neutral targets cannot stomach it reliably (and those that can are liable to a follow-up attack if they hard switch-in).

Future Sight


Future Sight, on the other hand, is a move that is incredibly spammable in the tier right now, and is another enabler behind the difficulty of switching reliably into Cinderace, no matter the set. It is incredibly easy for Slowbro to press Future Sight with little to no consequence, and even less consequential for Cinderace to be the recipient of a Teleport, since its wide range of coverage options have no sweat in picking off Dark- or Steel-type Pokemon that may be incentivized to come in on a Future Sight. However, this starts to dwell into a different discussion; though, it is important for me to mention as it does hugely contribute toward my thoughts on Cinderace.

---

I'm not a very avid ND player, and by no means do I treat my opinion like it is gospel, but I personally think that Cinderace's suspect-worthy strength in the tier is mostly a symptom of other broken elements; namely Z-Crystals and Future Sight. I think Cinderace in practice has a lot of ways to be reliably scouted and run down in execution despite how effective, splashable, and consistent it is at doing what it does, but being able to easily blow past walls with STAB Z-moves and with Future Sight to pressure scouting options, Cinderace is pushed to the edge. My grievances behind these things, though, is a discussion that should be saved for later, as they do not cater specifically to the discussion of Cinderace and its effects on the metagame.

Tl;dr: for these reasons, I will be voting DNB.
 
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Nowno

la frappe du quartier est approuvé ✅
I will be voting DO NOT BAN.

There are multiples traits that make Ace very strong, like the fact that there are no almost no mons totally countering every of his sets, or his really big and unique offensive movepool, the combo with Future Sight, obviously, it's ability, etc... Everyone knows them

I also thinks it shouldn't be banned because of his place in the metagame, has he helps against what's strong in OU, like Clefable, and he forces the meta to be more offensive with some of his sets, he can pressure defensive core, and the best way to beat him will be offensively. He also helps having good coverage in the tier, as stabbed fighting types attack are almost only reserved to mega, or as his gunk shot is the only poison type move stabbed.

But he has a lots of problems. Even though his moves are never always the same, he always have uses Boots ( 53.060% ), because nothing else is really viable, except maybe :life orb: in some sets, but even :darkinium z: is used only 1,144% of the times. Also, Wide Lens is used more than Darkinium.
He is very frail and doesn't have a particulary great defensive type, this is also amplified by the fact that even though he helps against somes strongs mons in the tier, he is weak to Lando, which third in the usage, or Ash Gre, which is number one.
He has the four moves slot syndrome, because if not running zen Headbutt, he will get walled by Toxapex, if not playing Jump Kick, Heatran will wall him, and so on.
Also, he can't de very much against stall, eve, though he is good against most core, there are too many obvious reasons for him to get walled by any good stall.
 
I will be voting DO NOT BAN.

There are multiples traits that make Ace very strong, like the fact that there are no almost no mons totally countering every of his sets, or his really big and unique offensive movepool, the combo with Future Sight, obviously, it's ability, etc... Everyone knows them
This first statement completely contradicts your argument. You say it's healthy but then say it has no counter to all its sets and the Ace + Sight combo which is one of the main reasons it's being suspected: There's no consistent way to beat this without going out of your way to check all of its sets which means slapping at least 2-3 mons on for it which also ends up making your team weaker to other threats as a result. Doesn't really sound healthy to me.

I also thinks it shouldn't be banned because of his place in the metagame, has he helps against what's strong in OU, like Clefable, and he forces the meta to be more offensive with some of his sets, he can pressure defensive core, and the best way to beat him will be offensively. He also helps having good coverage in the tier, as stabbed fighting types attack are almost only reserved to mega, or as his gunk shot is the only poison type move stabbed.
I can name at least 5 other prominent mons in the meta that pressure defensive cores and influence a more offensive metagame without being ridiculously difficult to punish. Even if the meta becomes more defensive after Ace's ban (which it likely won't since defensive archetypes like full stall are rather inconsistent atm), that's not a very sound reason to keep it in the tier and there are other Pokemon like Mega Mawile that can break through these teams.

But he has a lots of problems. Even though his moves are never always the same, he always have uses Boots ( 53.060% ), because nothing else is really viable, except maybe :life orb: in some sets, but even :darkinium z: is used only 1,144% of the times. Also, Wide Lens is used more than Darkinium.
He is very frail and doesn't have a particulary great defensive type, this is also amplified by the fact that even though he helps against somes strongs mons in the tier, he is weak to Lando, which third in the usage, or Ash Gre, which is number one.
He has the four moves slot syndrome, because if not running zen Headbutt, he will get walled by Toxapex, if not playing Jump Kick, Heatran will wall him, and so on.
Of course Ace runs HDB, because it's what lets Ace avoid hazard chip (especially Stealth Rock) and pivot around with U-turn to punish switchins ridiculously easy, and any other item isn't worth sacrificing that huge advantage, which only adds to Cinderace's unhealthy presence in the metagame. Being frail isn't much of a weakness either when BlissBro is one of, if not the most splashable pivot core in the meta that can consistently bring it in on the popular Voltturn Offense teams.

Your argument is also contradicted again when you say Ace has 4MSS, yet earlier you stated it has a multitude of sets and a powerful combination with Future Sight, which eliminates any issues of 4MSS because all Ace really needs is U-turn and Sight support to wear down and eventually beat its defensive answers. Plus, Ace can just be paired with something like Specs Tapu Koko that can kill its few checks and call it a day. Being weak to Lando and Ash-Gren isn't exactly a sound argument either, since they aren't exactly switching in unscathed against it and really don't want to eat hits from Cinderace, and there's other Pokemon that don't break the metagame that are weak to them. Plus, Ace will likely be paired with a backbone like the aforementioned BlissBro, making the effort at eating a hit meaningless.

And, as a side note, while I would normally be fine with quoting the usage stats for certain solid arguments, this is a format whose ladder is filled to the brim with gimmick teams and people running garbage like Donphan over superior stuff like Hippowdon, so the usage stats aren't really good for reflecting the meta, hence why Wide Lens is apparently being used more over Darkinium Z.

Also, he can't de very much against stall, eve, though he is good against most core, there are too many obvious reasons for him to get walled by any good stall.
This is far from the truth. Cinderace can absolutely demolish stall, especially with a smart player. Unless you're running, say Alomomola and Gliscor on your stall, you aren't exactly eating hits all day, and the stall team's matchup against other stuff can become worse as a result. And once again, the aforementioned Future Sight just invalidates these checks.
 
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