OU An Analysis of Leads in GSC OU

[wyc2333]

Approved by Earthworm​

The Lead Cycle

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Leads in SPL 2020

+ ---- + ----------------------- + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| Rank | Leads | Use | Usage % | Win % |
+ ---- + ----------------------- + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 1 | Snorlax | 38 | 39.58% | 44.74% |
| 2 | Zapdos | 16 | 16.67% | 68.75% |
| 3 | Raikou | 12 | 12.50% | 50.00% |
| 4 | Nidoking | 8 | 8.33% | 62.50% |
| 4 | Exeggutor | 8 | 8.33% | 50.00% |
| 4 | Cloyster | 8 | 8.33% | 37.50% |
| 7 | Jynx | 2 | 2.08% | 50.00% |
| 8 | Porygon2 | 1 | 1.04% | 100.00% |
| 8 | Heracross | 1 | 1.04% | 0.00% |
| 8 | Articuno | 1 | 1.04% | 0.00% |
| 8 | Tyranitar | 1 | 1.04% | 0.00% |

Leads in WCoP 2019

+ ---- + ----------------------- + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| Rank | Leads | Use | Usage % | Win % |
+ ---- + ----------------------- + ---- + ------- + ------- +
| 1 | Snorlax | 25 | 32.89% | 52.00% |
| 2 | Zapdos | 15 | 19.74% | 53.33% |
| 2 | Raikou | 15 | 19.74% | 40.00% |
| 4 | Exeggutor | 6 | 7.89% | 16.67% |
| 5 | Nidoking | 5 | 6.58% | 60.00% |
| 6 | Jynx | 3 | 3.95% | 100.00% |
| 6 | Cloyster | 3 | 3.95% | 33.33% |
| 8 | Tyranitar | 2 | 2.63% | 100.00% |
| 9 | Blissey | 1 | 1.32% | 100.00% |
| 9 | Smeargle | 1 | 1.32% | 0.00% |

Electrics force Cloyster leads out and use Thunder (or Thunder Wave) to paralyze whatever (even if an opponent sends a Ground-type Pokemon, you will know early-game the Ground-type Pokemon you are facing), a phazing move to let an opponent reveal three mons in the first two turns, or double-switching to your Cloyster against expected Snorlax / Ground-type (unless Nidoking) switch-ins to give you early Spikes and a free turn to use Toxic or Hidden Power Electric against an opposing Cloyster when it is switched in and use Spikes. When it comes to Zapdos vs Raikou matchup, Raikou can either use Roar or try to force Rest on Zapdos, while Zapdos can try to paralyze Raikou with Thunder Wave, which can be game-changing.

Although Electrics on offensive teams can hit Snorlax with Thunder or use a phazing move, it is still a versatile Pokemon that can threaten an opposing team early-game in different ways: it can use Curse to scout two-third of opposing mons on offensive teams at most, sleep something with Lovely Kiss, lure Cloyster that wants early Spikes with Double-Edge + Thunder, spread paralysis with Body Slam, click Self-Destruct when it comes to Snorlax mirror, or use Toxic against Cloyster and maybe opposing Snorlax.

Cloyster gurantees Spikes vs Snorlax leads, but it is at a huge disadvantage if facing an Electric-type lead, Nidoking, and Jynx. When Cloyster teams have something like a cleric, they can stay in against Exeggutor to lay Spikes, otherwise it can be switched out. However, on offensive teams, Cloyster can use Miracle Berry against status.

Leads that try to get an advantage on Turn 1 via status or via removing Leftovers of an opposing Pokemon shouldn't be overlooked. Exeggutor is especially effective at this because Electrics are its most common counters and it can easily use Stun Spore, Sleep Powder, or Thief to help sweepers like Vaporeon, Machamp, and Marowak. Nidoking outspeeds Snorlax and capitalizes on leads like Raikou. On offensive teams, Jynx has an advantage against Zapdos and Cloyster. It can force leads without Sleep Talk such as Snorlax out and use Substitute to scout a Pokemon with Sleep Talk like Zapdos, thus threatening boom offense.

Other options are Tyranitar (that gives you an advantage against some common leads like Zapdos), Forretress (that sets up Spikes against Electrics, but it is scared of random Fire-type coverage moves as well as a possible paralysis that would make spinning harder), Smeargle (that can use Agility, set up Spikes, or surprise something since it can learn almost every move), and Porygon2 (mainly with Thunder Wave to paralyze something or sometimes Thunder to surprise Cloyster).

References

M Dragon's Quality Check
Smogon Premier League XI - Usage Statistics
The World Cup of Pokémon 2019 - Usage Stats
https://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/best-lead-pokemon.3456304/
https://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/best-lead-in-gsc.66801/

It's better late than never. Feel free to comment.

 

[M Dragon]

First of all I will explain what I call the "GSC lead cycle":
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I will group Zapdos and Raikou together and I will call them "electrics".

Historically in GSC, there have been 3 very common kind of leads: Electrics, Snorlax and Cloyster.

Electrics force Cloyster leads out, giving the electric user a big advantage, because he can choose between using Thunder to try to paralyze whatever (even if they send a ground user, you will know very early game what ground you are facing, and that will give you an advantage while planning the game strategy) or using Roar to start scouting the other team and hopefully revealing 3 mons in the first 2 turns giving a better idea of what you are facing, or double switching to your Cloyster in the expected Snorlax / Ground (unless Nidoking) switch to give you early free spikes, which also gives you a free turn to Toxic or to HP Electric their Cloyster (if they have one) while they also Spikes. In most of these scenarios, you will be at an advantage early game.
In the "worst MU" in the cycle vs lax, electrics can still hit a Thunder or Roaring the Snorlax out, so they can still do "something" even if the Snorlax user will nearly always be in the better situation.
And then there is the Zapdos vs Raikou MU, where Raikou can either Roar or try to para or force the rest on Zapdos while Zapdos can try to paralyze the Raikou. Paralyzing the electric can be very important.

You explained Snorlax well. Snorlax is a very versatile pokemon that can threaten the other team from start in different ways: it can sleep something, it can start cursing and threaten the other team, it can lure a Cloyster that wants early Spikes with D-E + Thunder, it can start cursing to threaten the other team and potentially kill something and/or damage several mons while allowing you to scout 2/3 of their mons from the start in the best case, it can start toxicing...
Basically, Snorlax has 2 main things: versatility and potential to break a team from the start.

Then you have Cloyster. Cloyster gurantees Spikes and therefore a good start vs Lax leads but is at a huge disadvantage if facing an electric lead, since you are forced to switch out.


The other big group of leads are the ones that try to get an advantage from the start via status or via removing the Leftovers of an opposing pokemon. Exeggutor, Nidoking and Jynx are the best examples.
Exeggutor is especially effective at this, because Zapdos is its most common counter, and it can easily do one of the 3 things (para, sleep or remove its lefties) to help a sweeper like Vaporeon, Marowak, Machamp, etc.
The basic idea is getting an advantage since the start by crippling something in turn 1.


Then you have other options such as Forry (who can take a hit from the electrics to set up spikes, but is scared of random Fire Blasts and HP Fires, as well as a possible para that would make spinning later in the game harder), Smeargle (who can set up spikes AND sleep something, or surprise something since it can learn every move) or Tyranitar (who gives you an advantage against some common leads like Zapdos)

 

[asbdsp]

I'll add some 2 cents to MDragon's comments on the lead cycle he describes.

Electrics end up being the most overall "safe" used leads, because in addition to not having nothing to do vs Snorlax as MDragon mentioned, they tend to be better equipped with resttalk sets to take on the "status leads". RestTalk Snorlax is a thing, but of the lead sets it's also one of the immediately less threatening, so not particularly common. For this reason Cloyster ends up being a rather high risk lead. Spikes is so meta shapingly strong, so leading electric to prevent spikes advantage on turn 1 also has utility in its own right.

Which brings us to another salient point about GSC OU electrics when it comes to their solidity. There are basically no counters to them outside of Snorlax (which would rather not take Thunder to the face, due to para chance and then having to rest), the obvious choice of grounds/rock types being hit hard by hidden power ice/water, especially from Zapdos, which can 2hko a lot of them with spikes. Jynx is a great check to Zapdos, but it obviously doesn't like taking Thunder.

Lax lead is almost never bad, because of its famous versatility, but there is opportunity cost in using it in the lead slot, especially if you end up running into status lead vs your non RestTalk Lax.

In summary, of the S mons of MDragons cycle Electrics>Snorlax> Spikers(inluding Forry), is the general take on the frequency you'll actually see them in.

 

[wyc2333]

First of all I will explain what I call the "GSC lead cycle":
>
>
>

I will group Zapdos and Raikou together and I will call them "electrics".

Historically in GSC, there have been 3 very common kind of leads: Electrics, Snorlax and Cloyster.

Electrics force Cloyster leads out, giving the electric user a big advantage, because he can choose between using Thunder to try to paralyze whatever (even if they send a ground user, you will know very early game what ground you are facing, and that will give you an advantage while planning the game strategy) or using Roar to start scouting the other team and hopefully revealing 3 mons in the first 2 turns giving a better idea of what you are facing, or double switching to your Cloyster in the expected Snorlax / Ground (unless Nidoking) switch to give you early free spikes, which also gives you a free turn to Toxic or to HP Electric their Cloyster (if they have one) while they also Spikes. In most of these scenarios, you will be at an advantage early game.
In the "worst MU" in the cycle vs lax, electrics can still hit a Thunder or Roaring the Snorlax out, so they can still do "something" even if the Snorlax user will nearly always be in the better situation.
And then there is the Zapdos vs Raikou MU, where Raikou can either Roar or try to para or force the rest on Zapdos while Zapdos can try to paralyze the Raikou. Paralyzing the electric can be very important.

You explained Snorlax well. Snorlax is a very versatile pokemon that can threaten the other team from start in different ways: it can sleep something, it can start cursing and threaten the other team, it can lure a Cloyster that wants early Spikes with D-E + Thunder, it can start cursing to threaten the other team and potentially kill something and/or damage several mons while allowing you to scout 2/3 of their mons from the start in the best case, it can start toxicing...
Basically, Snorlax has 2 main things: versatility and potential to break a team from the start.

Then you have Cloyster. Cloyster gurantees Spikes and therefore a good start vs Lax leads but is at a huge disadvantage if facing an electric lead, since you are forced to switch out.


The other big group of leads are the ones that try to get an advantage from the start via status or via removing the Leftovers of an opposing pokemon. Exeggutor, Nidoking and Jynx are the best examples.
Exeggutor is especially effective at this, because Zapdos is its most common counter, and it can easily do one of the 3 things (para, sleep or remove its lefties) to help a sweeper like Vaporeon, Marowak, Machamp, etc.
The basic idea is getting an advantage since the start by crippling something in turn 1.


Then you have other options such as Forry (who can take a hit from the electrics to set up spikes, but is scared of random Fire Blasts and HP Fires, as well as a possible para that would make spinning later in the game harder), Smeargle (who can set up spikes AND sleep something, or surprise something since it can learn every move) or Tyranitar (who gives you an advantage against some common leads like Zapdos)

i agree gsc lead cycle should be laid more emphasis. thx for ur comments and this analysis has been updated

 

[phosphor]

Everything about what kinds of leads you will see and what they do has been explained here and all of this is great information but I am necrobumping because I believe the last words on this matter have not been said. Often times the leads you will see and how they play against you for the first few turns says a lot about what kind of team you will face. I’ll leave my analysis here and hope this will be useful for some.

Cloyster- Cloyster is theoretically the “riskiest” lead- you can potentially get Spikes up very early, but you can also potentially run into an Electric lead and be put on the backfoot by repeated Thunders without an advantage. Therefore, Cloyster lead is usually indicative of a bunch of things, from what I perceive to be most to least relevant:

1) a limited Lax response. Depending on how weak to Lax the Cloyster leading team is, leading Cloyster as a form of insurance can be as safe as just laying Spikes then going to a phazer to Roar the Lax out thus making sure as early as possible that Lax always comes in contested, to as drastic as laying Spikes then booming CurseLax for 60 being a viable line of play. Both scenarios usually mean an offensive team, and in these scenarios the inherent “riskiness” of Cloyster is tempered by being the “safest” option against T1 Lax.

2) decent backbone against Thunder spam

3) potential CloyGolem combo that is fine with trading Toxics with opposing Cloys to open up for Spin later

4) wants to boom on/ poison Starmie as soon as possible possibly to open up for something like Machamp

5) a team so reliant on Spikes to get the ball rolling that they would take that risk

6) rarely- their Cloyster has Miracle Berry and is trying to bait something with Toxic or Ice Beam or wants to get Spikes up ASAP to an expanded range of leads

A lot of this can also be said about Forretress, and Forretress definitely can also lead, but it’s just so vulnerable to Fire moves and generally much less reliable than Cloyster that you will rarely see it. Forretress lead is usually indicative of a stall team that for some reason would rather not lead Lax or an Electric (with the lack of them being reasons), and in general seeing a Forretress implies a Pursuiter or Ghost in the back more than Cloyster does.

/ Zapdos/ Raikou- The Electrics are the leads strongest against T1 spikes and most vulnerable to T1 CurseLax. This means they are usually indicative of any number of four things-

1) either their team will buy any turn without Spikes that they can, which means their team is either quite offensive that it can win before Spikes chokes it out or just doesn’t have the best anti-Spikes game/ is vulnerable to Spikes (Kou lead is common on stall, and stall always has spin, stall just hates being on the back foot because it’s hard to climb back)

2) they have a solid plan against most CurseLax that doesn’t involve just offensively pressuring it

3) their Electric wants to paralyze your Lax/ Electric as part of their gameplan

4) they have problems with a particular sleep lead

5) you want to force out Cloy leads because your plan vs other Cloy is to Tox them with your own Cloy -_-

Of course, this is not always true- even with a good Spikes game or with offensive teams that forego very long term answers to T1 CurseLax you can still see Electric leads. In the case of Zap, Zap lead is the strongest lead against two of the sleepers Nidoking and Exeggutor (although if your team is both weak to Jynx and only has Zap as the Sleep Talker you might want to have Zap at the back to bait Lovely Kiss in a lead scenario). The three main Sleep leads also can carry Thief and Zapdos also cares about Thief less than Snorlax who again has it as one of his very few weaknesses in the tier (though Nido Ice Beam 3HKO is painful for Zap and without Sleep Talk losing Leftovers can be lethal for a team that defensively relies on it).

The combination of these anti anti-lead and anti Spikes properties tends to make Zapdos the “safest” lead to use because it can buy you time before your opponent can start setting up their offense. By implication of this and the fact that Zap is more commonly seen on offense than stall, seeing Zap lead also sends the message that they are weak to long term progress makers, hence why they are trying to nip that in the bud. But there’s one more reason why Elec lead is “safe”. Even in its worst matchup, Elec vs Lax, you can still do things.

Turn 1, RestTalk Zapdos/Raikou vs Snorlax has a dilemma of clicking Thunder then switching out vs switching out ASAP, with clicking Thunder first being much more commonly seen than switching out ASAP. This is done for a few reasons-

1) seeing what the Lax will do first. Unboosted, only DE can kill RestTalk Zap and DE or EQ can kill RestTalk Kou. What this means is you will see if a) they Curse ASAP which means they have something for the T1 CurseLax mirror b) they DE which means they might be Sleep Talk or are trying to bait your Cloyster for Thunder or Toxic or something c) they use Body Slam or Return, in which case they are DEFINITELY Curse. d) they use Lovely Kiss, in which case thank God it fell on (what is likely) your Sleep Talker. For each of these scenarios you would respond differently as going to either your normal resistant phazer or spiker ASAP could end pretty badly.

2) chip damage. Why go straight to your phazer and let Lax leave the field untouched and uncontested when they could be potentially back at the field at 85% (73% if you get Spikes up first). Lax is fucking slow, and therefore any kind of damage you can pile on it before you force it out is significant because it’s the mon that is least likely to use Rest before you do something to it and hence it will be more hesitant to come in.

If your Zap has TWave or your Kou has Reflect+Rest I think it's pretty obvious how this goes.

Snorlax- Lax lead gives off the least information. You can make a bunch of generalizations but being the most common Pokemon in the tier, it can be led just for the sake of ambiguity and not really be indicative of anything until it clicks its first move. It’s often common in teams without definite Zap switchins and just relies on firing back offensively (think your average NidoGar-type team) because every Lax set forces Zap out and hopefully buys a few turns before Zap comes in again. Lax lead carries an inherent risk to it- you really don’t want to engage in T1 Curse wars, and you REALLY don’t want your Lax to take Thief, which is one of Lax’s few weaknesses in the tier. Here are a bunch of reasons I can give for seeing Lax lead:

1) Aforementioned not really liking Thunder spam.

2) It’s a mixed attacker or has Toxic. For spinless offensive teams, you might not prevent Cloy from Spiking but you can sure as hell turn the game 5-6 with DE+Thunder while making sure they don’t click Boom. For stall, Toxicing their Cloyster puts their Spiker on a timer which relieves a lot of pressure for your team. Toxic is also seen with Flamethrower, which wastes Forretress.

3) Your Sleep Talker sucks vs a particular Sleep user and you want to bait the Sleep move (eg offensive teams with only Zap as Sleep Talker)

3.5) Your Sleep Talker combo is Lax+ Elec and you want to bait Thief with the Elec.

4) It uses Curse T1 and wants to bait in opposing Lax/Skarm with Curse+Boom or just get Skarm in to paralyze it with BSlam. In the case of Cursing ASAP in the mirror, the first scenario becomes much more likely (but don’t rule out the option of having strong anti-Lax responses)

5) You just want to be ambiguous.

6) Very rarely- your team is weird as fuck. You have no Electric types and your Spiker is Forretress (or you don’t have one lol), and you really don’t have any options aside from leading with Lax.

Lead Lax vs Lax, generally if you have DE you click that first unless you’re sure you can contest the other Lax if they click Curse too and therefore click Curse yourself to force yourself to be phazed because they can’t just get Cloyster in and Spike on you anymore as it’s too risky. If you don’t have DE, you probably have Curse (unless you are Drum) in which case you probably click that. But in general, Laxes don’t like contesting other Laxes. What your opponent does on the second turn whether you DE or Curse’d usually says something about their team. There are too many scenarios to list them all here, but there are a few relevant ones:

You DE, they DE, next turn they stay in and use Curse or DE again- they’re trying to bait something in

You DE, they DE, next turn they switch out- they saw the not using T1 Curse as an opportunity to Spike or something

You Curse, they DE, next turn they stay in- they might have some weird combo that can beat your Lax, like LK+Drum or they are a Curse set that can contest you (like Curse+Boom) and just DE’d to be safe

You Curse, they DE, next turn they switch out- they are playing on the safe side

You DE, they Curse, next turn they Curse again- they thought you didn’t have LK and are perusing early what your CurseLax answers are

You DE, they Curse, next turn they switch out- they just Cursed T1 to be safe, but they probably figure you are also Curse and don’t want to engage in an early Curse war.

You Curse, they Curse, next turn they keep Cursing- their CurseLax is well equipped to win Curse wars. Either it’s Curse+Boom, or Mono DE which often just beats Curse+Rest+BSlam+coverage move. That, or they are so weak to Lax that they’d rather just bank on winning it right there.

You Curse, they Curse, next turn they switch out- they don’t want to war your CurseLax with theirs. Their CurseLax probably isn’t a variant that handles wrestling with other Lax well, or they are just a conservative player who doesn’t see the point in a risk so early.

Again, none of this is polemic. You can definitely have Lax lead with a team that takes Thunders well or isn’t trying to bait anything if you just want to be ambiguous. It is because of this that Lax is the lead I am most hesitant to say is indicative of anything until you see what it clicks first.

// Sleep leads- Choosing from the triad of Nidoking, Jynx, and Exeggutor to me represents the act of countering one of three Sleep Talkers- Nidoking hits Raikou hard, Jynx hits Zapdos hard, and Exeggutor outspeeds Snorlax and clicks Explosion. Obviously, all the Sleep leads are strong against Cloy/Forry. But in a certain sense, all of the “sleep leads” are also anti-Lax. Lax is the safest Sleep Talker, and all three of these Sleep users can use Thief, which cripples Lax. However, in a lead scenario vs Lax, if their Lax runs away from your Sleep user it might not say that much about whether they have Sleep Talk or not- if they don’t have Sleep Talk, they’re always running out of there, but even if they do they’d be so scared of Thief that they’d go to their other Sleep Talker to potentially take it. It's better to say that T1 Lax that stays in on any of these, if it ever happens, is highly likely to be Sleep Talk (or rarely, have a Beller at the back).

Jynx completes the trifecta of leading well against Zapdos/Snorlax/Cloyster. This is one of the reasons Jynx is known as the bane of Boom offense.

Nidoking completes the trifecta of leading well against Raikou/Snorlax/Cloyster. This is one of the reasons Nidoking is known as the bane of stall.

In a sense, one could say that using a Sleep lead is all about countering the Cloy/Lax/Electric lead cycle, but this picture is incomplete. The truth is that GSC is a metagame that relies on cumulative progress over fast blitzkriegs, and therefore “losing” a lead scenario shouldn’t mean that much. For always winning your lead scenario and thus the initial turns to be relevant, your team needs to accelerate the pace of the game so that those initial turns are a pivotal part of it.

Therefore, what a Sleep lead usually indicates to me is a very offensive and fast paced team- they simultaneously don’t have long term Lax answers and want to offensively pressure it, but also don’t want to get spiked on early, but also don’t want their target Electric to prevent them from making early progress.

Smeargle- you are getting Baton Passed. Rarely, though, it can be a Mirror Coat spiker, and even more rarely, it might be in the back and they lead with Egg which blows up on your phazer.

Umbreon- definitely a T1 Mean Look, but what comes next could either be Sand Attack in which case you're facing a BP chain, or a hard pass to a mon that kills your trapped guy, in which case this might be one of those weird offenses that just have random trap Umby

Tyranitar- it’s a mixed attacker with four attacks, one of which is DPunch.

Finally, I should reemphasize that when looking at long games, leading may not have that big of an effect in the long term, so it's definitely possible that a certain lead is used not because of it being particularly optimal for the team but simply due to player comfort/familiarity/preference.

There is obviously more on this subject but they slip my mind for the moment. Feel free to correct me on anything wrong here- I am not the best GSCer and would hate to spout misinformation, I just want to get across that there is a bit more nuance to leading in GSC.